Christian Moreno

The US could become the next Venezuela. Here’s what you need to know (so you can protect your wealth): What you need to know about debt: Countries are like businesses. They use debt for growth and investment. Like a business, there needs to be a plan to pay it back. Why you should care about the debt-GDP ratio: This metric shows the level of debt a country owes against the size of its economy. The higher the ratio, the lower the chance of payback. What’s happening with US debt levels: -The US is sitting on $ 34 trillion of debt and increasing a trillion every 90 or so days -Debt is 123% of GDP  -US government spending as a percentage of GDP is at World War 2 levels -US is now spending more on debt servicing than the military (Note that the national debt doesn't include the roughly $80 Trillion in unfunded Social Security and Medicare liabilities). You don’t need to be an economist to know that earning less than your current debt servicing level is not sustainable. What happens if/when the music stops: Just look at Venezuela for the worst-case outcome. It couldn’t payback its debt which caused the economy to implode. It has gone from one of the wealthiest countries in South America to: -Hyperinflation -Mass emigration -Widespread poverty -High crime What does the US and Venezuela have in common: If the USA lost its “dollar reserve” status, it could follow the same path as Venezuela. Here’s why: -Heavy reliance on deficit financing to pay for unfunded entitlements  -An economic base that has largely moved from making stuff to providing “services”  -Dependence on Central Bank accommodation and endless fiscal stimuli (effectively corporate socialism disguised as capitalism) How to prevent an economic collapse: The US is the most powerful economy in the world. Its share of global GDP is higher now than in the last 20 years. I would argue the US is among the most innovative places in the world to start businesses.  But so much of the growth of our market share has been front-loaded with aggressive debt financing. There are cracks in the system that we would be remiss to ignore. How to manage risk as an investor: There’s no immediate need for panic. But investors should be concerned and planning ahead. The single best way to protect your wealth against hyper-inflation: Owning hard assets like real estate. Here’s why: -It’s a physical asset with intrinsic value -People will always require shelter -Rents keep up with inflation. This is why real estate always has and always will be a great hedge against inflation. How are you managing your risk? Let me know in the comments.  If this resonates, repost to share with others ♻️.

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BIG PICTURE: 𝟑 𝐑𝐀𝐓𝐄 𝐂𝐔𝐓𝐒 𝐅𝐑𝐎𝐌 𝐅𝐄𝐃 𝐈𝐍 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟒 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝟏. By 善萨伊德Shan Saeed The Wall Street Journal: 𝗠𝗶𝗱-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗖𝘂𝘁 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 Today, many institutions are trimming back their rate cut expectations given strong #labor market data and slow progress on #inflation. At the beginning of 2024, several banks forecasted five or more interest rate cuts over the year, while the median projection for Federal Reserve policymakers was three quarter-point cuts by fiscal year-end in March. Now, it has pared this back to one rate cut this year. This graphic shows mid-year interest rate forecasts, based on institution reports via Nick Timiraos of the The Wall Street Journal. Overall, more than half of the institutions seen in the table below anticipate the first rate cut to take place in September. Citigroup, for example, is forecasting quarter-point rate cuts in September, November, and December. In June, the bank scaled back their projections, which were previously calling for four cuts beginning in July. A key indicator that the bank is watching is the #unemployment rate, which slowly increased to 4% in May, up from 3.9% a month earlier. It also expects inflation to continue cooling over the coming months. Like Citigroup USA Inc. , Goldman Sachs and Nomura see the first rate cut taking place in September. In more of a hawkish camp, J.P. Morgan anticipates the first cut to be in November due to continued momentum in the labor market. This year, the bank has shifted from three interest rate cuts to one, citing that job weakness may take several months to play out. Today, many banks are aware that while inflation has moderated, the Fed is keeping a close watch on future inflation risks. As of May, inflation stands at 3.3%, falling for two consecutive months after trending upward in early 2024. U.S. #interestrates have remained at 5.25-5.50% since July 2023, sitting at their highest level in 23 years. Yet, despite higher borrowing costs, it is taking longer than anticipated to beat inflation or dampen consumer spending. Part of the reason is that many people and corporations locked in low interest rates seen during the pandemic, and the impact of higher interest rates hasn’t fully begun to bite...UNQUOTE Facts are in vogue. Stay on top of the markets with 善萨伊德Shan Saeed Thanks for sharing James W. #economy #investing #markets #Iqiglobal #Monetarypolicy #Inflation #CNN #CNBC #WSJ #NYT #Chicagotribune #Realestate #Equities #Bonds #Commodities #interestrates #Financialmarkets #Stagflation #Deflation #Assetclasses #SCMP #CGTN #NBC #CBS #Europe #UK #USA https://lnkd.in/ge2XQYSP

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With @CarlQuintanilla @SaraEisen 11am ET. Expect NT mkt bounce given some oversold conditions. But punitive reaction to tech results so far (ie $TSLA deliveries, $TSM, $ASML, $NFLX, $SMCI lack of +pre) & concerns about ROI on AI investments keep us selective on earnings this wk. Apr 18 $NFLX reports today. Stock reaction to expectations of beat & raise qtr will be viewed as bellweather for Mag7 starting next wk despite fundamentally not having much in common. Still believe selectivity is key for Q1 earnings & rest of yr especially w/ Fed potentially on hold.

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Peter Zeihan's advice to help Mexico's industrial expansion...😅 What do you think? Let me know down below👇 - - - Peter Zeihan #fundlaunch #peterzeihan #economics #investing #stockmarket #geopolitics #crypto #privateequity #venturecapital #realestate #hedgefunds

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Peter Zeihan's advice to help Mexico's industrial expansion...😅 What do you think? Let me know down below👇 - - - Peter Zeihan #fundlaunch #peterzeihan #economics #investing #stockmarket #geopolitics #crypto #privateequity #venturecapital #realestate #hedgefunds

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"The point I make over and over is that multiples are not valuation. Let me just stop there. Multiples are not valuation. They are a shorthand for the valuation process. And one should never confuse those two things." Full episode: https://lnkd.in/eSrW7GPN

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How To Trade Range Bound Markets - Adding Alternative Trading Strategies When the markets are stuck in a sideways shuffle it can be very frustrating since most traders tend to look for continuation trades. For those looking for an alternative trading strategy, here's a look at how I use advanced (harmonic) patterns, specifically the Gartley pattern, to take advantage of times when the market is consolidating or moving sideways. ▶️ https://lnkd.in/dmmKpucb

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Waterfall Distribution Basics: A waterfall distribution is a way to split profits from an investment based on the work done and the associated risk. Consider this: if you, as an LP (Investor), invest the same amount as a GP (General Partner/Sponsor/Owner), the GP should receive a larger share of the profits, given that they handle all the work. Similarly, the riskier the investment, the more likely the LP is to make a larger return. There are many nuances among every waterfall you will encounter, but here are some basics. Tiered distribution: This means that once certain hurdles (conditions) are met, the splitting of the profit will change. The first hurdle is called the Preferred Return. This simply means that you, the LP (and in most cases, the GP too), will get an equal share of profits until a certain hurdle is met (which could be anywhere between 6-12% of your initial investment). If and hopefully when this hurdle is met, meaning everyone received their profit, another hurdle is set (which could be anywhere between 12-25%). But this time, the profits will not be distributed pari passu (evenly); rather, the GP will receive a higher proportion of the profits (called a Promote). If the GP's original percentage of ownership was 10%, this promote can increase it to 30-60%, depending on the deal. You continue to have different hurdles with a higher promote for the GP. This is done to encourage the GP to do a better job since they will receive a higher percentage of the profits. Distributions from waterfalls can be given out at any interval; the most common are monthly, quarterly, and yearly. This is the first part of a multi-part series explaining equity waterfalls. Do you receive or distribute profits based on waterfall distributions? What other aspects of waterfalls should I bring up? ————— If you found value in this post, please like and comment. Follow for more content! If you want to receive my newsletter, direct message me! Any distribution or waterfall questions, reach out! Need help setting up or calculating a waterfall? Reach out.

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Thx Mauricio Rauld, Esq. for #ACCREDITED #INVESTOR #DEFINITION #CHANGE COMING (condensed* / edited from YouTube** GPT summary):   1)  #Inflation Adjustment of Accredited Investor Thresholds:   • The SEC report acknowledges that the $1 million net worth and $200,000 income thresholds set in 1982 have not kept up with inflation.   • Adjusting the $1 million net worth threshold for inflation using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) would put it at around $3.37 million today. 2)  #Growth of Accredited Investor Population:   • The percentage of households considered accredited investors has grown #significantly, from 1.8% in 1983 to 18.5% in 2022, projected to 66% by 2052.   • This rapid growth in the accredited investor pool #limits the SEC's ability to protect non-accredited investors. 3)  The Role of IRAs in Inflating Net Worth:   • Excluding #IRA assets from the net worth calculation could reduce the accredited investor pool from 12.5% to 8.8% of households.   • This suggests the SEC is considering excluding certain assets, like IRAs, from the net worth calculation to more accurately reflect investors' true financial situation. 4)  #Recommendations from SEC Subcommittees:   • The report discusses various recommendations from SEC subcommittees, including:  adjusting the thresholds for inflation going #forward, excluding IRA assets from the net worth, and basing the thresholds on #geographic location.   • Thus the SEC is exploring multiple avenues to update the accredited investor definition. 5)  The SEC's Regulatory Dilemma:   • 99.7% of investments in Reg D offerings are made by accredited investors.   • So the SEC is not protecting the target core group.   • By updating the accredited investor definition, the SEC hopes to increase the pool of non-accredited investors, thereby expanding its ability to regulate and protect a larger segment of the investing public.   We'll help by: Reviewing *SHORT* #PPPP DRAFTS - Plan, Property, Pitch or Pro Forma - #GRATIS - THEN ..... Selecting #OPTIMUM #SMART(est) #CAPITAL (#Debt and #Equity) available for • CRE • its Tech (Building, AI, GPT, IoT, Blockchain, Data)• Investment • AECtech • FinTech • PropTech • https://FINANCEoptions.biz (robust InfoList) • #GoldenInfoNuggets ____________ * Full Summary available on request ** https://lnkd.in/eYHCgKVr

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Investors: STOP asking about capital calls, Ask this simple question instead.   When it comes to sponsor due diligence, The burning question from every investor is: -> Have you had any capital calls?   But that's not what you really want to know.   You want to know if any deals have run out of money.   Here's how to sound like a savvy, sophisticated investor, and get the info you want.   Ask this instead: "Have you had to inject any additional capital into your deals after closing?"   This covers: -> Member loans -> Additional equity partners -> And of course capital calls   Why does this matter?   All these are ways to add more money to a deal.   This new money will generally take priority over the initial invested capital.   The only difference is where the money comes from: - Sponsor loans: from the deal sponsors - New equity partners: from outside sources - Capital calls: from the investors I'm not saying these are all equal. A well-funded sponsor that can shield you from putting in more cash in a deal Is valuable.   But it's still important to know if extra funds were needed.   Bonus: Asking this question: Shows you understand the business, and will help you make smarter investment choices.   Found this helpful? Give me a 👋 in the comments Connect and follow me Amanda Larson, MBA for fun investing tips.

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I created Cardone Capital to provide everyday investors access to the institutional-grade real estate deals that are normally reserved for only the largest investors. CardoneCapital.com Text to 305-407-0276 to start investing. You can INVEST with your IRA/401k. Call or text to see if you qualify #CardoneCapital #realestatetips #MultifamilyInvesting #realestateinvesting #billionaire #grantcardone #10x #realestatetips #millionairementor #wealthcreation #wealthy This is not an offer; offers will be made only by means of the Regulation D Offering Documents (available at https://lnkd.in/gt6wXG2R) or the Regulation A Offering Circular (available at https://lnkd.in/eH_NBccy), either of which may be updated or amended from time-to-time with the most recent Offering Circular or Offering Documents. The Regulation D offering under Rule 506(c) is for accredited investors only. For our current Regulation A offering(s), no sale may be made to you in this offering if the aggregate purchase price you pay is more than 10% of the greater of your annual income or net worth (excluding your primary residence, as described in Rule 501(a)(5)(i) of Regulation D). Different rules apply to accredited investors and non-natural persons. Before making any representation that your investment does not exceed applicable thresholds, we encourage you to review Rule 251(d)(2)(i)(C) of Regulation A. For general information on investing, we encourage you to refer to www.investor.gov. The acquisition of any property identified in this communication is subject to various contingencies and may not be consummated. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Investing involves risk and may result in partial or total loss. Prospective investors should consider carefully investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses, and should consult with a tax, legal and/or financial adviser before making any investment decision. For additional information, visit https://lnkd.in/e96qcfyK

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I created Cardone Capital to provide everyday investors access to the institutional-grade real estate deals that are normally reserved for only the largest investors. CardoneCapital.com Text to 305-407-0276 to start investing. You can INVEST with your IRA/401k. Call or text to see if you qualify #CardoneCapital #realestatetips #MultifamilyInvesting #realestateinvesting #billionaire #grantcardone #10x #realestatetips #millionairementor #wealthcreation #wealthy This is not an offer; offers will be made only by means of the Regulation D Offering Documents (available at https://lnkd.in/gt6wXG2R) or the Regulation A Offering Circular (available at https://lnkd.in/eH_NBccy), either of which may be updated or amended from time-to-time with the most recent Offering Circular or Offering Documents. The Regulation D offering under Rule 506(c) is for accredited investors only. For our current Regulation A offering(s), no sale may be made to you in this offering if the aggregate purchase price you pay is more than 10% of the greater of your annual income or net worth (excluding your primary residence, as described in Rule 501(a)(5)(i) of Regulation D). Different rules apply to accredited investors and non-natural persons. Before making any representation that your investment does not exceed applicable thresholds, we encourage you to review Rule 251(d)(2)(i)(C) of Regulation A. For general information on investing, we encourage you to refer to www.investor.gov. The acquisition of any property identified in this communication is subject to various contingencies and may not be consummated. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Investing involves risk and may result in partial or total loss. Prospective investors should consider carefully investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses, and should consult with a tax, legal and/or financial adviser before making any investment decision. For additional information, visit https://lnkd.in/e96qcfyK

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BR is Bullish on Resi Credit: The U.S. residential mortgage market is $14T. When a mortgage is out-of-the-money, the loan trades below par and the prepayment rate is ~3% CPR which means only 3% pre-pay per annum (i.e., owner moves, extra cash flow, death), a low prepayment rate. When mortgage rate fall, homeowner who are in-the-money by 75bs are likely to refinance, CPR jumps to 20%+ given homeowners seek to lower their monthly payment. It’s wonderful news for homeowners, but for those who own premium coupon MBS they are subject to negative convexity. Convexity measures the sensitivity of a bond's price to changes in interest rates. Bonds with positive convexity benefit commensurately to a decline in rates as future cash flows are discounted at a lower rate, making them more valuable. MBS on the other hand have negative convex when the price approaches par as the investment doesn't increase as much from this inflection point due to prepayment risk rising as the bondholder loses the opportunity to earn the higher interest payments and then must reinvest at lower rates. The bar chart below shows the rate distribution for the mortgage universe. As the mortgage rate is now 6.1%, mortgages >6.5% are highly susceptible to early pre-payment. MBS between 5% - 6%, might see prepayments inch up marginally from 3% CPR to 4% as these slightly out-of-the-money homeowners who have felt trapped, now have more flexibility to move since the cost to do so is marginalized. Note that in the U.S., 30-year fixed rate mortgages are priced at spread to 10-year UST (not SOFR or Fed Funds); I expect the 10-year UST rates will decline less than the front end of the curve as the yield curve steepens as the Fed cuts rates. New home sales will benefit in this lower rate environment as will existing homes sales. Be Bullish: lower mortgage rates are net-positive for homeowners/residential credit, home builders, building materials, and mortgage originators.

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PCE inflation continues to follow the path of the Truflation real time estimates. PCE came in at 2.6% today which is exactly where Truflation was last month. Currently real time estimates are at 2.03%. Bond markets are also following the glidepath of nominal GDP growth down. Source: https://lnkd.in/gMnienZn #inflation #rates #PCE #growth

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𝗗𝗲𝗯𝘂𝗻𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗳-𝗗𝗼𝘂𝗯𝘁 𝗠𝘆𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵 𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗲𝗿𝘀 Think hedge fund managers, elite athletes, trial lawyers, and top creators walk around brimming with confidence? Think again. The idea that high-performance professionals never face self-doubt is a fallacy. Reality check: • Hedge fund managers have a string of wins - but one bad stock pick sends them spiraling into self-doubt. • Elite athletes - Lose a race after a winning streak? Self-doubt kicks in. • Trial lawyers - After the verdict? Doubts creep in about missed arguments and overlooked details. • Online creators - One post doesn’t get the engagement their previous ones did, and they wrestle with deep insecurities, second-guessing their work. The Higher the Goal, The Deeper the Fall 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗳-𝗱𝗼𝘂𝗯𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗮 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗱𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘀 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝘀𝗲𝗹𝗳-𝘄𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵. How do I know? As a Wall Street professional, I still deal with cycles of self-doubt, even after 30 years. One bad stock pick can make me feel useless, despite years of solid performance. So, the key is to: • Acknowledge self-doubt impacts most top performers. • Build muscle memory to recognize the cycles of self-doubt. • Find a buffer to short-circuit the spirals when they set in. 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮 𝗯𝘂𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿? It's a creative goal outside of your 9-5. Not an easel with a paintbrush necessarily. It's something that takes your mind and energy completely off the metric-driven grind. And no, playing tennis/squash or golf with your professional network doesn't count - that's still work! It's about having a hobby/side-gig completely removed from your professional life. One of my clients is a CEO of a major company: His hobby? Making artisanal chocolates. Over time, he built this hobby into a small artisanal business. Nobody knows he's a CEO in that world. It provides him with a buffer with a dopamine kick and helps short-circuit cycles of self-doubt Try it - what hobby or side gig do you have that completely removes you from your 9-5? Just click on the little  🔔 under my banner ⬆️ to catch new posts on my personal branding journey here on LinkedIn

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I've learned a bit about SBLCs (standby letters of credit} because I'm involved in a deal using an SBLC to trade in a way that generates monthly revenue to finance a big project. I'm no expert, but as I understand it, having control of an SBLC from a reputable organization has a lot of potential when traded through reputable traders. The key word at both ends of the deal is reputable. If you have the ability to either buy or lease and SBLC, there is huge upside potential if you do your research and choose wisely.

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#LongMiami — Miami single-family prices have risen 245.8% from June 2012 to June 2024, from $190,000 to $657,000. This return data is calculated based on the face value of the property not on the total initial funding and carrying costs of the property vs the increased face value over the prescribed timeline. And, also does not factor in principal debt repayments and for investors depreciation. A residential dwelling of any type is a depreciating liability, however, the land that the dwelling resides upon is a formidable asset class. Hard assets are identified as having a limited and sometimes fixed amount of supply. Pricing the asset is as such based on supply and demand. Real estate over time has proven to be a weigh scale, one that for over 2,000 years has consistently appreciated in value.

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