Africa Growth Renaissance’s Post

THE COMMODITY PRICE OUTLOOK FOR 4TH QUARTER 2024. The commodity price outlook for 4th quarter 2024 was dominated by bullish price movements across many commodities as compared to the previous quarter. This can be attributed to an upsurge in aggregate demand for consumer goods. As of 11th of November around 08.30 A.M oil was trading at $ 70.38 which is a slight slide from the previous quarter of $ 77.11. This fall can be attributed to reduction in production scales in the heavy -industry manufacturing and construction sectors which use heavily this commodity. The oil prices for fourth quarter have also fall in the $70-$80 bound which we predicted on the onset of this year. Special metals have experienced vibrant positive price abounds except for platinum which experienced a negative price movement, which settled at $ 972.49 in 4th quarter from a previous quarter record of $ 974.82 . Commodities like gold reached a peak of $ 2 694.80 from a backdrop of $ 2 507.80 as of 3rd quarter, silver also experienced a boost to settle at $ 31.45 in the fourth quarter from $29.05 in the previous quarter. Copper prices also strengthened from $ 411.40 in the 3rd quarter to settle at $ 430.60 in the 4th quarter. Commodity prices which fall under agricultural grains have experienced an outright boost in the 4th quarter as compared to their previous quarter performance. Corn prices firmed from 3rd quarter’s price of $ 399.00 to settle at 431.00 in the 4th quarter, wheat prices have also settled at $ 572.50 in the 4th quarter, from a backdrop of $ 530.75 in the 3rd quarter. Finally, the golden grain, which is soyabeans settled at $ 1030.25 in the 4th quarter from $ 1024.00 in the 3rd quarter. Commodity prices which are categorised as agricultural softs also experienced firmer prices as compared to the previous quarter. The price of cocoa has upsurged from $ 6  542.00 in the 3rd quarter to settle at $ 6 987.00 in the 4th quarter. Coffee has also realised a significant price gain from $ 226.60 in the previous quarter to settle at $ 253.10 in the 4th quarter. Sugar also settled at $ 21.82 in the 4th quarter from the previous quarter record of $ 18.54. Orange juice also experienced a positive price trajectory, as its price increases from $ 420.75 in the 3rd quarter to $ 466.65 in the 4th quarter. Finally cotton also realised a slight price increase from $ 68.26 in the 3rd quarter to settle at $ 70.98 in the 4th quarter of 2024. Rubber is also a product which is categorised under Forestry, which also experienced an upward price movement from $ 168.90 in the 3rd quarter to $ 200.00 in the 4th quarter of 2024. Conclusively, on the whole, special metals and agricultural products experienced favourable price movements as a result of the "festive season effect".

Brent oil futures for June deliveries on the London ICE Futures exchange on Friday rose by 0.8% to $ 90.45 per barrel, and on Monday fell by 0.34% to $ 90.14 per barrel (-0.5% for the week, +4.5% for the month). Along with this, palm and soybean oil quotes fell. Malaysia increased crude palm oil production by 10.57% in March compared to February, reaching 1.39 million tons, and exports increased by 28.61% to 1.32 million tons, which reduced inventories by 10.68% to a 10-month low of 1.71 million tons. From April 1 to April 15, palm oil exports from Malaysia increased by 9.2% compared to the same period in March, reaching 633.7 thousand tons according to Intertek Testing Services and 28.5% to 697.45 thousand tons. After the end of Ramadan, oil production is expected to increase. In the April USDA report, the forecast for the production of veg oils in the world was increased from 222.85 to 223.17 million tons (against 217.88 million tons in 2022/23 MG), and the forecast for palm oil imports to India and China was reduced by 0.2 million tons to 9 and 6 million tons, respectively, and its exports from Indonesia were reduced by 0.35 million tons up to 27.35 million tons. May soybean oil futures in Chicago fell by 5.2% over the week to $ 1002 per ton (-7.2% per month) amid an increase in the supply of cheap soybeans from South America. Even data on the expansion of soybean processing in the United States did not support prices. According to NOPA, in March, soybean processing in the United States amounted to a record 5.35 million tons, which exceeded analysts' forecasts and by 5.7% - the March 2023 figure. Sales of soybean oil increased by 9.5% compared to February, reaching 840 thousand tons, which is almost the same as in March 2023. The average price of sunflower oil with delivery to customers decreased by 0.8% in a week to $873 per ton, and in Ukraine prices dropped by 5-10 dollars per ton to $800-805 per ton with delivery to the ports of the Black Sea, $840-850 per ton with delivery to Bulgaria, $880-890 per ton with delivery to Italy. Against the background of a decrease in the forecast for palm oil exports, the USDA raised the forecast for sunflower oil exports from Ukraine by 0.15 million tons to 5.9 million tons and Russia by 0.1 million tons to 4.4 million tons due to an increase in imports by Egypt by 0.25 million tons to 0.6 million tons. The cost of Black Sea sunflower oil remains stable, and India is concluding deals at a price of $ 960 per ton with deliveries in May. At the local level, the Indian market is active, but the depreciation of the euro against the dollar limits the ability of traders to meet local requirements. In Europe, prices for sunflower oil fluctuate around $ 960 per ton, while buyers tend to purchase it at a price of $ 940 per ton. It is expected that the price correction for sunflower oil will be completed in the near future, and prices in the range of 920-950 USD will present an attractive opportunity for buyers.

📊 Weekly Commodity Update (June 17-23) 🌾💼 https://lnkd.in/dVKyW4Xk The past week has seen significant movements in the commodity markets. Here’s a detailed breakdown of the changes: 🔼 $CL #CrudeOil: +2.91% Crude oil prices surged this week, driven by supply constraints and geopolitical tensions. 🔼 $RB #RBOBGasoline: +4.75% Gasoline prices rose sharply due to increased demand during the summer driving season. 🔼 $BRN #BrentCrude: +3.17% Brent crude followed the upward trend of crude oil, influenced by global economic conditions. 🔼 $HO #HeatingOil: +0.85% Heating oil saw a modest gain, reflecting seasonal fluctuations and supply factors. 🔼 $BO #SoybeanOil: +0.60% Soybean oil prices edged up slightly, supported by strong demand in the biodiesel sector. 🔼 $KC #Coffee: +1.07% Coffee prices increased, benefiting from favorable market conditions and supply concerns. 🔼 $LH #LeanHogs: +0.96% Lean hogs posted gains amid reports of tightening supplies and strong export demand. 🔻 $NG #NaturalGas: -6.11% Natural gas prices dropped significantly due to mild weather and ample storage levels. 🔻 $ZW #Wheat: -8.36% Wheat prices fell sharply, pressured by higher global production estimates and favorable weather. 🔻 $KE #WinterWheat: -7.37% Winter wheat also declined, reflecting similar trends as the broader wheat market. 🔻 $ZC #Corn: -3.33% Corn prices decreased, influenced by improving crop conditions and strong production forecasts. 🔻 $ZS #Soybeans: -1.63% Soybean prices were down, weighed by trade uncertainties and favorable planting weather. 🔻 $SB #Sugar: -2.37% Sugar prices dipped, impacted by higher-than-expected production and reduced demand. 🔻 $CT #Cotton: -3.82% Cotton prices saw a decline, driven by weak demand and improved crop conditions. Staying informed about these trends is crucial for making strategic investment decisions in the commodities market. 📈📉 #CommodityMarket #Trading #Investing #Oil #Agriculture #MarketTrends #Finance #InvestmentStrategies

US crude and refined product inventories are expected to decrease for the third consecutive week, driven by robust summer travel season demand. Crude inventories are projected to fall by 2.77 million barrels to 437.5 million barrels, marking a 4.7% deficit compared to the five-year average for this time of year. This decline could potentially lead crude stocks to their lowest levels since early February. Strong petroleum demand, supported by increased summer travel activity, is a key factor influencing this trend, with refinery runs remaining strong and exports likely to rise, further impacting inventory levels.   Gasoline stocks are anticipated to decrease by 1.42 million barrels to 231.6 million barrels, aligning closely with their historical average. Increased gasoline demand, expected to rise to 9.2 million barrels per day (b/d) reinforces the downward trajectory of gasoline inventories. Distillate inventories are also forecasted to decline by 240,000 barrels to 127.8 million barrels, reflecting seasonal consumption patterns and refined product yields adjusted by refiners to meet market demand.   https://lnkd.in/g-XrcK3v

📰 Stable #crude #oil prices support quotations for #vegetable oils 🤔 Oil prices fell last week on easing tensions in the Middle East, but rose this week amid data on the U.S. economy, declining U.S. crude inventories and stronger demand for vegetable oils used in biodiesel production.   💡 According to S&P Global, business activity in the US fell to a 4-month low in April, which led to a decline in the dollar. Usually, in such periods, investors look for alternative assets, so the demand for oil increases.   📈 June Brent oil futures on the London ICE Futures exchange rose by 0.8% to $88/barrel (+2.3% for the month), and May WTI oil futures on the New York NYMEX rose by 0.8% to $88/barrel from Monday 0.7% to $82.8/barrel (+1.7% for the month).   📊 According to the EIA's weekly report, as of April 19, crude oil stocks in the US decreased by 6.37 million barrels, although analysts expected their increase by 2 million barrels. At the same time, distillate stocks increased by 1.6 million barrels, and gasoline stocks decreased by 634,000 barrels, while according to forecasts they were supposed to decrease by 1.75 million barrels. US crude oil production during April 13-19 remained at 13.1 million bpd, slightly below the recently set record of 13.3 million bpd.   💡 According to the Baker Hughes company, the number of active oil rigs in the USA for April 13-19 increased by 5 units, to a 7-month high of 511 units, which will allow production to increase shortly.   🤔 In April, after attacks by Ukrainian UAVs, Russian oil refineries reduced oil refining to an annual minimum of 5.23 million tons/day. At night, Ukrainian drones attacked two oil depots in the Smolensk region.   🔎 Despite lower exports, June #palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia remain steady at RM3,940/t or $825/t (-1.8% weekly, -9.5% two-weekly) on support of high oil prices and heat in Malaysia.   🔎 May #soybean oil futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell to $982/t yesterday (-0.9% for the week, -6.6% for the fortnight) after Monday's gains on the back of picking up in Argentina and higher refining volumes soybeans   🔎 According to Trading Economics, the average price of #sunflower oil with delivery to buyers during the week remained at $868/t (-0.6% for two weeks), in particular, in Ukraine it was $790-800/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.   💡 Unblocking the border with Poland has increased the demand for Ukrainian sunflower oil from Polish biodiesel producers, who are offering $840-860/t for it with delivery to Poland, which exceeds the price of edible oil. At the same time, Bulgarian buyers reduce their asking prices. 📻 Source: https://lnkd.in/ejqHtjHg Best regards. Agricultural commodity trader, Oleg Shklovtsov.

Palm oil marginally lower on rising inventories Malaysian palm oil futures fell marginally on Wednesday after industry data showed inventories in the world’s second-largest producer rose more than expected last month. The benchmark palm oil contract FCPOc3 for November delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was down 24 ringgit, or 0.62%, at 3,9099 ringgit ($9,036.05) a metric ton by the midday break. On Tuesday, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) said the country’s palm oil stocks at the end of August rose 7.34% from the previous month to 1.88 million metric tons, the highest level in six months. Crude palm oil production gained 2.87% to 1.89 million metric tons, while palm oil exports fell 9.74% to 1.53 million metric tons, the board said. The market is trading sideways due to a lack of clarity “over the future course of price action and also (the) market is waiting for Indonesian palm oil export levies and duty policy revision,” said Anilkumar Bagani, head of research at Mumbai-based vegetable oil broker Sunvin group. Indonesia, the biggest palm oil exporter, plans to lower export duties to improve competitiveness and raise farmers’ income. Palm oil FCPOc3 may break support at 3,856 ringgit per metric ton and fall towards the 3,782 ringgit to 3,796 ringgit range.

Palm oil stocks in the world's second-biggest producer were seen declining for a sixth consecutive month to 1.68 million metric tons, a 2 per cent drop on a monthly basis, according to the median estimate of 10 traders, planters and analysts polled by Reuters. Exports of palm oil products were estimated to have declined by 7.79 per cent month-on-month to 1.22 million tons amid stiff price competition from other edible oils, especially sunflower oil. https://lnkd.in/gVcDHFui

Thursday Market Watch - Traders Walk Back Some of Wednesday's Rally; Grain, Soy Markets Correct From Recent Sharp Gains; Bean Oil Rises With Crude The livestock complex's nearby contracts closed mostly lower Thursday afternoon as traders questioned whether they overdid the market's run on Wednesday and were left unsupported fundamentally as they don't know the direction of the cash market yet, boxed beef prices closed mixed and pork cutout values closed lower. More: https://ow.ly/La0750TCKXI December corn closed down 4 1/4 cents per bushel at $4.28 1/4 and March corn was down 4 cents at $4.46 0/1. November soybeans closed down 10 cents at $10.46 0/1 and January soybeans were down 9 3/4 cents at $10.64 1/2. December KC wheat closed down 7 3/4 cents at $6.11 1/2, December Chicago wheat was down 11 3/4 cents at $6.03 1/2 and December Minneapolis wheat was down 2 3/4 cents at $6.46 1/4. The December U.S. Dollar Index is trading up 0.245 at 101.670.November crude oil is up 3.59 per barrel at $73.69. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 184.93 points at 42,011.59 and NASDAQ is down 6.64 points at 17,918.48. December gold is up $9.30 at $2,679.00, December silver is up $0.47 at $32.39 and December copper is down $0.0990 at $4.5500. November heating oil is up $0.1129, November RBOB is up $0.1065 and November natural gas is up $0.083. Milk prices worked lower once again Thursday in nearby contracts, although unlike previous days, firm pressure developed in all nearby market contracts as traders continue to view the current price levels as being slightly unsupported. November contracts led the market lower with prices settling 48 cents per cwt lower at $21.83 per cwt. The overall lack of buyer interest and price stability is not only directly associated to the price softness in dairy prices, but general weakness in other ag commodities Thursday. Very little new fundamental market information is available through the last couple of days, leaving traders to be more heavily influenced by outside markets and concerns that building pressure in stock markets could add adverse implications to the overall economy as a whole through the upcoming months. It is important to remember that a large share of dairy product sales takes place in the last quarter of the year with the focus on holiday and year-end consumer buying needs. Any significant shift in the economy which will impact disposable income for the average consumer is likely to have at least marginal impact on dairy product choices purchased over the coming months. Class IV milk prices also posted moderate pressure, but less market softness was seen in the lightly traded Class IV market than the Class III milk futures, which continue to be the flagship futures product for the dairy complex. More: https://ow.ly/6O5x50TCKXL https://ow.ly/O8cF50TCKXH #dashboardreport #excellallnatural #replacementheifers

VEGOILS-Palm trades lower, tracking rival vegetable oils; industry data eyed JAKARTA, Dec 9 \(Reuters\) - Malaysian palm oil futures fell on Monday, tracking a decline in rival vegetable oils on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges, while traders await data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board \(MPOB\) for further cues. The benchmark palm oil contract FCPOc3 for February delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was down 47 ringgit, or 0.92%, at 5,081 ringgit \($1,149.55\) a metric ton by the midday break. "Market is expected to trade rangebound on Monday in anticipation of the official MPOB data, due tomorrow, for further direction," said Darren Lim, commodities strategist at brokerage Phillip Nova. Malaysia's palm oil inventories are likely to have dropped in November for a second consecutive month as torrential rains disrupted production, a Reuters survey showed. A flood struck Malaysia last week after heavy rains in November. The country's meteorological department forecast a monsoon surge from Dec. 8 to 14, which could bring continuous rainfall to the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia and parts of Sabah and Sarawak on Borneo Island. On the day, Dalian's most-active soyoil contract DBYcv1 dropped 0.84%, while its palm oil contract DCPcv1 slipped 0.78%. Soyoil fell 0.77% on the Chicago Board of Trade BOcv1. Palm oil tracks price movements of rival edible oils as it competes for a share of the global vegetable oils market. Oil prices nudged higher on Monday as heightened tensions in the Middle East following the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad by rebels outweighed concerns over weak Chinese demand. [O/R] Weaker crude oil futures make palm a less attractive option for biodiesel feedstock. Palm oil FCPOc3 may break resistance at 5,162 ringgit per metric ton and rise towards the 5,202 ringit to 5,242 ringgit range, driven by a wave 5, Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao said. \($1 = 4.4200 ringgit\)