U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission’s Post

Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets - Natural Gas While Europe has swiftly moved to diversify away from Russia’s gas delivered by pipelines, imports of tanker-borne fuel have held strong. Nations such as France, Spain and Belgium have increased purchases of Russian liquefied natural gas since the Kremlin started its war in Ukraine. That’s in part because of Europe’s overall drive to buy more LNG from the global market. The European Union allows imports of Russian LNG for security of supply, even if it banned transshipments of cargoes at its ports for consumers in other countries, such as China and India. https://lnkd.in/g_enun7P

The US has grown in recent years to become the biggest LNG exporter in the world. Trump's victory in the latest election offers a boost to project developers, who had faced a pause on new project approvals under President Biden. Although the Democrats may also have ended the pause on new project approvals in time, the Republican victory will likely accelerate the process and offer a more favourable environment for oil and gas producers. The energy industry will be weighing up the various implications of the win ... the future US foreign policy stance on Russia and Ukraine will also be key, given the importance of Russian pipeline gas and LNG flows to world markets. Trump's last period as president also saw a trade war between the US and China. LNG deliveries from the US to China stopped for a year, between mid-March 2019 and mid-April 2020 after tariffs were put on US LNG imports, leading traders to switch to alternative origins.

US complicates Europe’s attempts to give up Russian gas — Business Insider European countries are importing less Russian fuel than earlier but nevertheless cannot reject it in full, the news outlet said NEW YORK, August 2/ The United States is reducing volumes of natural gas supplies to Europe and prevent it from rejecting the fuel from Russia, the Business Insider news portal said. European countries are importing less Russian fuel than earlier but nevertheless cannot reject it in full, the news outlet said. The United States more and often redirects liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from Europe to Asia, where the price of this commodity is higher than in Europe. According to the report of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) released in mid-July, LNG supplies to Europe plunged by 20% to 7.4 mln metric tons - this is the lowest figure since October 2021. The decline of LNG exports to Europe was driven by lower gas demand, storages being filled, greater pipeline imports and a significant premium in the gas price in Asia. LNG imports by Asian countries gained 8.2% to 22.36 mln metric tons, according to the report. Europe imported 54.6 mln tons in total in the first half of 2024, while Asian imports added 10% to 141.6 mln metric tons. #business #finance #financialservices

More pressure forming on U.S LNG demand... Major LNG buyers trust traditional suppliers over US, potentially leaving more US cargoes for Europe. Significant LNG buyers like Japan, Taiwan and South Korea have raised concerns about the Biden administrations pause on LNG export permits to non-Free Trade Agreement countries. These Asian buyers do not have Free Trade Agreements with the US and the pause has been seen as an indicator of unreliability to these nations. Whilst US LNG often comes in the cheapest, the lack of supply security has further reinforced the need to maintain crucial long-term LNG supply agreements with traditional players, like Qatar and Australia. In contrast, Europe has a preference for spot markets where they can secure cargoes as they need them, and when they see prices as favourable. This dynamic could see less competition for spot cargoes from Asian buyers and free up more US LNG for Europe.  #2buy2 #energy #procurement

CHINA'S LNG IMPORTS THREATENED China’s Surging LNG Imports From US Threatened by Next Trade War https://hubs.la/Q02ZcDs80 The US has boosted sales of liquefied natural gas to China this year, although the surge may not last if the incoming Trump administration collides with Beijing over trade. #china #lngimports #lng #naturalgas #energyindustry #oilandgasindustry #tradewar

Through first-half Dec24, China's prompt LNG imports are impressively weak. Nonetheless, the market's base of downstream natural gas demand continues to grow YOY, adding further depth to the elasticity of China's future bid in the global LNG market for 2025+.

Russian natural gas exports via pipelines to the European Union countries have jumped by 24% in the first half of the year from the same period in 2023, according to a July report published by the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).

Answer is simple, the energy prices quadruple in last two years; post Ukraine war. Europe was receiving piped gas from Russia at their door step for $ 5.0/MMBTU, cheaper Russian piped oil and cheaper coal via Rail. All goodness denied by EU/USA ---- a self inflicted wound on Europe. Now it imports LNG at $20-35/Mmbtu via ships, congestions at their sea port. Europe imports petroleum products from India as it's refineries are operating at half the capacity.

„…North Asia spot LNG prices extended declines, trading in the $9/mmbtu range, as Japanese importers looked to resell shipments, adding more supply to the market. Japan’s utilities are facing high inventories and limited demand at home, reducing the need to take all contracted cargoes, traders said. Thailand’s state-run energy company PTT purchased three LNG cargoes on a DES basis for Feb.-March delivery in the low-$9/mmbtu range. Oman LNG offered to sell a cargo on an FOB basis for Feb. 14-16 loading. Gail seeks to purchase two LNG cargoes/month on a DES basis for Jan.-Dec. 2026 delivery to the Dabhol and Dhamra terminals in India. As part of the swap, Gail offers to sell two LNG cargoes/month on an FOB basis from Sabine Pass export plant in the US. Gail seeks to purchase an LNG cargo on a DES basis for Feb. delivery. Drivers: PetroChina Co., the country’s biggest oil and gas supplier, resold more seaborne gas cargoes last year to buyers in Europe and Asia last year, fueling a record-breaking profit from trading, according to the company’s newsletter on Thursday. Re-exports of LNG climbed 24% from a year earlier as the company sourced more cargoes on flexible terms from the US; it has also firmed up its foothold in Europe with a new terminal lease in the Netherlands from 2026. European gas storage was 77% full on Jan. 17, compared with the 5-year seasonal average of 66%. Estimated gas flows to US LNG export terminals -30% w/w at 10.4 bcf/day on Thursday, according to BNEF. Japan should push forward with its nuclear reactor restarts in order to curb its use of Russian liquefied natural gas, US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel said in an interview. US will increase LNG shipments to Japan thanks to already contracted supplies: Emanuel.“

Pakistan has finalized an agreement with Russia to restart discounted crude oil imports, set to begin in January 2025. Under a Government-to-Government arrangement, Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL) will import 12 cargoes annually, one per month. Federal Minister for Energy Sardar Awais Leghari announced the agreement during the Inter-Governmental Commission (IGC) meeting in Moscow. The State Bank of Pakistan, led by Governor Jameel Ahmad, developed a payment mechanism to facilitate smooth transactions. The discounted oil will support refinery upgrades under the Brownfield Policy, leveraging government incentives. The IGC meeting also addressed enhancing rail connectivity with Central Asia and advancing the $3 billion Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline (PSGP) project. Minister Leghari and Russian Transport Minister Roman Starovoyt explored opportunities to strengthen bilateral ties and regional connectivity. Final agreements are expected soon.