My latest column for the @currency discusses 'geopolitics', now a buzzword in business and economics, and some potentially hugely positive technological advances, whose benefits may be underestimated amid so much gloom about the state of the world. On opportunities from new technology, the next Irish government needs to repeal the ban on nuclear power generation or Ireland will miss out on the potentially huge benefits of next-generation small modular reactors. Tech companies building them for their own operations would add clean electricity to the grid, save taxpayers a fortune in building (and inevitable overrun) costs, cut fossil fuel imports and bolster much neglected energy security. At a strategic level, for Ireland and other small countries there will be increasing pressure not to be used by revisionist countries to undermine the west. Most specifically, that will involve more de-risking from China. https://lnkd.in/e--txqdi
Dan O'Brien’s Post
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Discovery is hard, demonstration is harder, but Deployment — that’s what makes your country great. “A point that he consistently makes is that the technology risk itself isn't the hard part. Much of what's emerging is technology that people at the DOE have been working on literally for decades. The main challenge is not in coming up with something new that might work to produce clean energy. The challenge is getting something that's shown to work out into the field, and operating in an efficient, competitive manner. One key ingredient to making that happen is finding the necessary capital which is where the LPO has a role. And of course this is true with things that aren't at the cutting edge technologically as well. Nuclear has been around for a long time, and likely has a role to play in improving the grid. But it's hard to deploy, at least in the US, at least in some categories. So to an extent, the US economy faces a challenge that for much of the 20th century we might have associated with developing economies. The technology to achieve things people want exists. Thinking them up and showing they can work is not the hard part. The hard part is in the coordination and cooperation required to get them running.”
Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Americas
bloomberg.com
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Jigar, you are on point again! What makes deployment great? Delivery systems for all the innovative technology products that exist and simply need wider, faster adoption. Think DERs, more energy efficient widgets, gadgets and gizmos, and of course, software. But just building factories full of these without a delivery system is a bridge to nowhere (or not enough). The ultimate delivery system for all DERs and innovative climate tech? New built residential (which we need a ton of anyway). Just remember to design it with the maximum performance allowed by physics and create a system to scale it at speed using, again, robotics, software and PHI ( Propagated Human Intelligence)! AM.51 U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Fractalize™ Energy Positive Living Consortium Positive Energy Action Inc. Sven Thomsen The Clear Clean Jamie Skaar Gavin Newsom Gary Fleisher OffSiteDirt.com The Cool Down
Discovery is hard, demonstration is harder, but Deployment — that’s what makes your country great. “A point that he consistently makes is that the technology risk itself isn't the hard part. Much of what's emerging is technology that people at the DOE have been working on literally for decades. The main challenge is not in coming up with something new that might work to produce clean energy. The challenge is getting something that's shown to work out into the field, and operating in an efficient, competitive manner. One key ingredient to making that happen is finding the necessary capital which is where the LPO has a role. And of course this is true with things that aren't at the cutting edge technologically as well. Nuclear has been around for a long time, and likely has a role to play in improving the grid. But it's hard to deploy, at least in the US, at least in some categories. So to an extent, the US economy faces a challenge that for much of the 20th century we might have associated with developing economies. The technology to achieve things people want exists. Thinking them up and showing they can work is not the hard part. The hard part is in the coordination and cooperation required to get them running.”
Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Americas
bloomberg.com
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Energy - Solar - Wind - Nuclear Never forget. We live on a planet where the West spent the last 20 years allowing Russia and China to near monopolize the production of essential natural resources - and now we are sanctioning those resources. The real story is in here - an essential read today. - https://lnkd.in/eRUZ2REM
How to Listen When Markets Speak: Risks, Myths, and Investment Opportunities in a Radically Reshaped Economy
amazon.com
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Unfortunately, the recent events in the Middle East between Iran and Israel have made my most recent paper very relevant. In our paper, we analyze the impact of the Israel-Iran conflict on global energy markets. We examine the April 2024 Israel-Iran military attack, which, similar to the events of the past few days, included the unprecedented occurrence of direct strikes originating from Iranian territory onto Israeli soil, featuring an unparalleled number of ballistic missiles launched in a singular military maneuvre by Iran. We find returns on the top ten global energy stocks indicate investor apprehension up to 10 days before the event started on April 13, 2024. Energy stocks had significant negative returns on the event day itself, with positive CAARs pre-event and negative CAARs post-event. BP PLC stock bore the brunt of the impact with the most substantial negative abnormal return (−2.26%), followed by EOG Resources (−2.20%) and Canadian Natural Resources (−2.12%). Interestingly, the responses across the energy stocks were also negative but varied by firm; only PetroChina had a positive return across the ten selected energy stocks. In addition to selected energy stocks, we also examine the global pharma sector, the banking industry, and top 10 Israeli companies over various event windows surrounding the event date. This paper is published with M. Abedin (he/him/his), Nidhi Malhotra, and Dr. Miklesh Prasad Yadav. The paper is attached and is Open Access. We thank Samuel Vigne and the anonymous referees. (FYI to Babson College, Stephen D. Cutler Center for Investments and Finance, Brian Lucey, Constantin Gurdgiev, John W. Goodell, Mark Potter.)
Middle East conflict and energy companies: The effect of air and drone strikes on global energy stocks
sciencedirect.com
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DOOMBERG writes, What nearly all market observers get wrong is the nature of the relationship between energy and the economy. Most view energy as an input into economic activity, as though its contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) is no different than the other measurable goods and services that go into that important calculation. This is how otherwise intelligent people observe Russia’s comparatively modest GDP and conclude that it is nothing more than “a gas station masquerading as a country.” Such arrogance is the root cause of the West’s catastrophically flawed sanctions policy against the country, and such ignorance explains the dangerously naïve calls to “end fossil fuels,” the equivalent of demanding suicide on a billion-person scale. This is a concept so vital that it is worth writing with bolded emphasis: Energy is not an input into the economy, IT IS THE ECONOMY. Humanity organizes its economic activities to ensure a steady growth in the extraction and exploitation of primary energy because energy is life, standards of living are defined by how much energy is available to be exploited, and all humans everywhere are perpetually seeking a higher standard of living. Natural Gas is the logical fuel to move us towards an energy transition. #energy #lng #naturalgas #oilandgas #geothermalenergy #nuclearenergy #solarenergy #windenergy #hydropower #investments #energytransition #gdpgrowth
Atlas Won’t Shrug
doomberg.substack.com
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https://lnkd.in/db4jD7SX The human endeavor demands ever more energy. So it shall be. "What nearly all market observers get wrong is the nature of the relationship between energy and the economy. Most view energy as an input into economic activity, as though its contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) is no different than the other measurable goods and services that go into that important calculation. This is how otherwise intelligent people observe Russia’s comparatively modest GDP and conclude that it is nothing more than “a gas station masquerading as a country.” Such arrogance is the root cause of the West’s catastrophically flawed sanctions policy against the country, and such ignorance explains the dangerously naïve calls to “end fossil fuels,” the equivalent of demanding suicide on a billion-person scale. This is a concept so vital that it is worth writing with bolded emphasis: Energy is not an input into the economy, IT IS THE ECONOMY. Humanity organizes its economic activities to ensure a steady growth in the extraction and exploitation of primary energy because energy is life, standards of living are defined by how much energy is available to be exploited, and all humans everywhere are perpetually seeking a higher standard of living."
Atlas Won’t Shrug
doomberg.substack.com
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📈 Stock Take: Geopolitical tensions simmer as new figures highlight the UK’s economic challenges. 🔎 Wealth Check: How to protect yourself and your staff when scaling back or closing. 🎞 In The Picture: Inflation progress has stalled 💬 The Last Word: Nuclear will play a vital role in our clean energy future. That is why we are working closely with our allies to unleash the potential of cutting-edge nuclear technology. Advanced nuclear technology will help decarbonise industry by providing low-carbon heat and power, supporting new jobs and investment here in the UK." Energy Secretary Ed Miliband in response to the new agreement for civil nuclear collaboration signed by UK and US at COP29 in Baku, helping strengthen energy security. #marketanalysis #financialmarkets #finance #financialwellbeing
WeekWatch
partnership.sjp.co.uk
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ENERGY...so important to the global economy and it goes without saying our national security. "Natural Gas Is The Logical Fuel To Move Us Towards An Energy Transition." #energy #permianbasin #haynesville #eagleford #bakken #lng #naturalgas #investments #economy https://lnkd.in/gKXzNXNs
DOOMBERG writes, What nearly all market observers get wrong is the nature of the relationship between energy and the economy. Most view energy as an input into economic activity, as though its contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) is no different than the other measurable goods and services that go into that important calculation. This is how otherwise intelligent people observe Russia’s comparatively modest GDP and conclude that it is nothing more than “a gas station masquerading as a country.” Such arrogance is the root cause of the West’s catastrophically flawed sanctions policy against the country, and such ignorance explains the dangerously naïve calls to “end fossil fuels,” the equivalent of demanding suicide on a billion-person scale. This is a concept so vital that it is worth writing with bolded emphasis: Energy is not an input into the economy, IT IS THE ECONOMY. Humanity organizes its economic activities to ensure a steady growth in the extraction and exploitation of primary energy because energy is life, standards of living are defined by how much energy is available to be exploited, and all humans everywhere are perpetually seeking a higher standard of living. Natural Gas is the logical fuel to move us towards an energy transition. #energy #lng #naturalgas #oilandgas #geothermalenergy #nuclearenergy #solarenergy #windenergy #hydropower #investments #energytransition #gdpgrowth
Atlas Won’t Shrug
doomberg.substack.com
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The ‘real world’ where most of us live and work is full of confusion and complexity. But you wouldn’t know that if you just looked at financial markets. Click here to see the latest blog post on Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges, which focuses on sector surprises for October. #ICIS #blog #Ukraine #MiddleEast #economy #oil #Russia #Putin #nuclear https://lnkd.in/gBhTrhm3
BLOG: Middle East and Ukraine Wars, US election and China’s slowdown threaten ‘October surprise’ for markets
icis.com
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