Frank Toth’s Post

US JOB DATA: Payrolls slightly above estimates, but last month data was revised lower heavily. Moreover unemployment rate came higher than expected. Because of Higher Labor Force. A slowing job market may mean more rate cut from the Fed. #Fed #JobMarket #Macroeconomics #Investing #Globalequities #financialmarkets

From Linkedin News: In a sign of a still resilient labor market, the U.S. economy added 272,000 jobs in May, far more than expected, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. However, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.0%, its highest level in two years. Job growth had been undershooting the monthly average seen in the first quarter, with a revised 165,000 new nonfarm payrolls in April. A tighter labor market and its contribution to inflationary pressures may undermine the case for interest-rate cuts anytime soon. https://lnkd.in/gyQ3gjrz

Another hot reading from the US labour market 🥵 🔁I feel like a broken record but yet again the US labour market has outstripped expectations. Non-Farm Payrolls came in at 303K today, far above the 212K in another sign the jobs market is keeping resilient despite higher rates.👊 The unemployment rate also came in lower than expectation at 3.8%, falling from last month’s 3.9% while hourly earnings do not surprise at 4.1%, lower than last month’s 4.3%. 📉Markets have scaled back their expectations for a rate cut in June to 53%, having been 60% before the release of the data. This is not a report which brings the Fed closer to the confidence policymakers seek. ❌ Hot.

The US May labour market report contained mixed news for the Fed. Payrolls growth came in stronger than expected at +272k, a touch stronger than the estimated breakeven rate of +265k. Solid jobs growth continues to be fuelled by resilient demand and the strong immigration-led growth in labour market supply (see my last post). Employment was weaker in the household survey which saw the unemployment rate tick higher from 3.9% to 4.0%. The disappointment (for the Fed, not workers) came in wage growth which printed higher than expected at annual growth of 4.1%. At the same time, the Fed will be taking some encouragement from the recent sharper falls in labour demand as indicated in the Job Openings survey published earlier this week. All grist for the mill as the FOMC heads into next week’s rate setting meeting.

Upcoming readouts on the US labour market, including the monthly payrolls report, will give the Federal Reserve policymakers insight into the need for further interest-rate reductions after an all-but-certain cut in a little more than two weeks.

US July Jobs Report: increase of 114K, unemployment rate of 4.3% with average hourly earnings of 0.2% m/m & 3.6% y/y. 97K increase in private sector payrolls and a downward revision of 29K over the past two months. Those Fed cuts are definitely going to happen in September & the market has fully priced in 4 cuts through January 2025.

The monthly US jobs report always gives a first economic checkup on the previous month, and Friday’s report reinforces a theme of American exceptionalism: 1)     Nonfarm payrolls advanced a remarkable 303,000 last month following a combined 22,000 upward revision to job gains in the prior two months. The rise exceeded all expectations in Bloomberg’s survey of economists. 2)     The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%. The US has had joblessness of less than 4% for more than two years now, something that hasn’t occurred for decades. 3)     Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% from February and 4.1% from a year ago, continuing a trend of moderation reflecting the fact that inflation has fallen below 3% -- to 2.5% by the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure. Even with the moderation, Americans are getting solidly positive real wage gains. The upshot for the Fed and interest rates? Because the economy is doing well and labor market is solid, there will be no rush to cut interest rates. The Fed has penciled in three cuts for rates this year, and some economists think two might be more likely in light of the strength. Still, on the question of the rate path, the upcoming reports on inflation are likely to overshadow this report. See our full story here: https://lnkd.in/d86AecVT

More noise than signal in today’s US labour market data. Payrolls rose a weather-and-strikes-impacted +12k in October, while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%. These factors no doubt also impacted other labour market data this week including the large fall in job openings in the JOLT survey. So, nothing here to change the story of the last couple of months that growth and the labour market are running hotter than the Fed assumed in September when they cut by 50bp. The FOMC meets next week. Markets are pricing a 25bp cut in the Fed Funds rate as the most likely outcome.

The US economy LOST 192,000 jobs in Q3 2023, according to the BED report released by the BLS last week. BED data tracks quarterly changes in employment at all private businesses in the US economy. Meanwhile, US nonfarm payrolls data showed that the US labor market added 494,000 new jobs in Q3 2023. This is a WHOPPING 686,000 difference in job count over just one quarter. The BED data from the BLS suggests that the final labor market revisions released in 2025 will be MUCH lower than the headline-reported job numbers. What is happening here? (TKL)

💼 Strong job growth = A strong economy! September’s jobs report brought great news: Payrolls grew by 254,000, far surpassing expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. Wage growth remains solid without sparking inflation concerns, meaning the economy is in good shape. While challenges remain, this is a positive signal for both the economy and the markets as we move into the end of the year. #JobsReport #Economy #StockMarket #EmploymentGrowth