Thomas Schmidt’s Post

Another hot reading from the US labour market 🥵 🔁I feel like a broken record but yet again the US labour market has outstripped expectations. Non-Farm Payrolls came in at 303K today, far above the 212K in another sign the jobs market is keeping resilient despite higher rates.👊 The unemployment rate also came in lower than expectation at 3.8%, falling from last month’s 3.9% while hourly earnings do not surprise at 4.1%, lower than last month’s 4.3%. 📉Markets have scaled back their expectations for a rate cut in June to 53%, having been 60% before the release of the data. This is not a report which brings the Fed closer to the confidence policymakers seek. ❌ Hot.

The job market is heating up again. The US economy added 254k jobs in September, well above expectations of 147K with unemployment falling to 4.1%, August payrolls were also revised up +17k to +159k, along with July being revised up +55k to +144k. Market expectations of deeper rate cuts are certainly being challenged as the bond market is now forecasting a 25 percent reduction rather than 50 at the next meeting #jobs #economy #fed #interestrates

The US May labour market report contained mixed news for the Fed. Payrolls growth came in stronger than expected at +272k, a touch stronger than the estimated breakeven rate of +265k. Solid jobs growth continues to be fuelled by resilient demand and the strong immigration-led growth in labour market supply (see my last post). Employment was weaker in the household survey which saw the unemployment rate tick higher from 3.9% to 4.0%. The disappointment (for the Fed, not workers) came in wage growth which printed higher than expected at annual growth of 4.1%. At the same time, the Fed will be taking some encouragement from the recent sharper falls in labour demand as indicated in the Job Openings survey published earlier this week. All grist for the mill as the FOMC heads into next week’s rate setting meeting.

Job growth in the U.S. slowed much more than expected during July and the unemployment rate ticked higher, the Labor Department reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls grew by just 114,000 for the month, down from the downwardly revised 179,000 in June and below the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.3%, its highest since October 2021. More: cnb.cx/3YtEXuI

The latest U.S. jobs report revealed that the labor market continues to soften, with only 142,000 nonfarm payrolls added in August—falling short of the expected 160,000. Although the unemployment rate dipped slightly to 4.2%, concerns remain high due to downward revisions in previous months' data, indicating a weaker job market than initially reported. This was the weakest August for job growth since 2017. With financial markets reacting cautiously, it’s clear the economic outlook remains uncertain. As we approach the end of the year, the labor market will be a key factor to watch. https://ow.ly/fvmX50Tj40u

An update from Bloomberg about the US economy and Job Market. Here's an overview: "The US jobless rate climbed to a two-year high in February even as hiring remained healthy, pointing to a cooler yet resilient labor market—just what the Federal Reserve has been hoping for. Nonfarm payrolls advanced 275,000 last month following a combined 167,000 downward revision to the prior two months, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed Friday. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% and wage gains slowed. The report illustrates a labor market that is gradually downshifting, with more moderate job and pay gains that suggest the economy will keep expanding without much risk of a reacceleration in inflation. Digging beneath the surface, data showed some of the increase in the unemployment rate was due to people entering the labor force and not immediately finding work. “We’re seeing a labor market that is still tight, still strong, wages are moving up,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in testimony before Congress on Wednesday. “And we’re trying to use our policies to keep that growth going and to keep that labor market strong, while also achieving further progress on inflation.” —David E. Rovella #freelancerevolution

The monthly US jobs report always gives a first economic checkup on the previous month, and Friday’s report reinforces a theme of American exceptionalism: 1)     Nonfarm payrolls advanced a remarkable 303,000 last month following a combined 22,000 upward revision to job gains in the prior two months. The rise exceeded all expectations in Bloomberg’s survey of economists. 2)     The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%. The US has had joblessness of less than 4% for more than two years now, something that hasn’t occurred for decades. 3)     Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% from February and 4.1% from a year ago, continuing a trend of moderation reflecting the fact that inflation has fallen below 3% -- to 2.5% by the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure. Even with the moderation, Americans are getting solidly positive real wage gains. The upshot for the Fed and interest rates? Because the economy is doing well and labor market is solid, there will be no rush to cut interest rates. The Fed has penciled in three cuts for rates this year, and some economists think two might be more likely in light of the strength. Still, on the question of the rate path, the upcoming reports on inflation are likely to overshadow this report. See our full story here: https://lnkd.in/d86AecVT

〽️How will the labor market impact your talent strategy? ➡️ The U.S. economy added far fewer jobs than expected in July, with nonfarm payrolls totaling 114,000, falling short of the forecasted 185,000. ➡️ This data, released by the Labor Department, signals a weakening labor market. ➡️ Additionally, June's figures were revised downward to 179,000 jobs. ➡️ The unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 4.3%. #USEconomy #LaborMarket #JobsReport

💼 Strong job growth = A strong economy! September’s jobs report brought great news: Payrolls grew by 254,000, far surpassing expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. Wage growth remains solid without sparking inflation concerns, meaning the economy is in good shape. While challenges remain, this is a positive signal for both the economy and the markets as we move into the end of the year. #JobsReport #Economy #StockMarket #EmploymentGrowth

#US_economy Another very strong jobs report has cast further doubt on the prospect of interest rate cuts this year. Payrolls increased by 272,000 in May, beating all expectations, and average hourly earnings growth was hotter than expected. However, the unemployment rate rose with the contradictory evidence suggesting prospects could still go either way