Iani A. CHIHAIA’s Post

🔵💬 Market briefs in the morning by Esteban Moscariello: - Renewed tension between Iran and Israel in the wake of the overnight news is pushing the oil market to strengthen this morning, increasing volatility and causing a rally in other commodities, including wheat in Chicago. - The soybean market is trying, once again, to regain momentum and is trading at highs this Friday morning in Chicago, after the intense falls of the previous session. - Soybean prices in Chicago rose between 2.25 and 4 points in the most traded positions. The May contract was quoted at $11.37 and the July contract at $11.51 per bushel. - Commodities rose across the board this Friday, led by wheat in Chicago - which rose more than 1.5% - and coffee in New York, with increases of more than 2.3% -, both contributing to lifting the rest of markets. - Traders remain attentive to the macro scenario and the evolution that the geopolitical scenario brings for these assets, especially in relation to the behavior of the dollar. - Yesterday, Chicago wheat prices retested the $5.35/bu zone in May 2024 futures, returning to their lowest level in a month. - Weekly wheat export sales figures also failed to support the market, with confirmed sales cancellations for the current campaign and a reported turnover of 222,000 tonnes for the new campaign. - In corn, weekly sales published by the USDA exceeded the level of 500,000 t. Despite this level, volumes are much lower than in recent weeks, which weighs on prices. - At the moment, US traders appear to be downplaying the impact of the recent decline in disease yields in Argentina. - However, the accompanying USDA report for Argentina now reports production of 51 million tons, well below the official USDA estimate of 55 million tons in early April. - Soybean oil prices fell again, setting a new low for the May 2024 contract. - Soybean prices for the same maturity exceeded $11.40/bu and also closed at a new low. - China's soybean imports in March reach their lowest level in four years. - 13.9% of the area suitable for soybean planting in Argentina has been harvested, with a delay of -22 p.p. in the progress of the harvest at the national level compared to the average of the last five campaigns. - In the Northern Core, the soybean harvest in Argentina has advanced by 43.5% of first class soybeans, with an average weekly yield of 38 qq/Ha, 1.7 qq/Ha above the average. - 17.2% of the estimated area for commercial grain corn in Argentina has been harvested, with an average yield of 87.9 qq/Ha. - A production of 49.5 Mt of corn is projected in Argentina, a reduction of 7 Mt compared to the initial projection. - Consulting firm Sovecon estimated that Russia would export between 4.2 and 4.6 million tons of wheat in April, compared with a record 4.4 million tons a year ago. - Russia shipped about 4.9 million tons of wheat in March, the most on record in any March. ➡️ By Esteban Moscariello - 📌📈

🔵💬 Market briefs in the morning by Esteban Moscariello: - Soybean prices rise this Friday (17th) in Chicago, following other commodities. - Soybean prices rise in Chicago this Friday morning (17th). Increases ranged between 8.75 and 10.75 points in the most traded contracts, taking July to $12.27 and August to $12.26 per bushel. - Without many new developments of its own, soybeans follow the movement of its neighboring markets and the widespread gains among agricultural commodities. - Wheat futures once again lead the increases on the CBOT this Friday and are accompanied by soybean meal, both rising more than 1% today, serving as an important fuel for soybeans. - The increase in wheat is due to concerns about the Russian harvest, weather conditions and the possibilities of lower production. - At the same time, and being the main factor of prices, the weather in the Midwest of the United States continues to be closely monitored, without at the moment representing many threats to field work. - However, on the demand side, China remains very active and its purchases remain highly concentrated in Brazil. - The Chicago wheat market fell yesterday for the third consecutive session. The drop ended the bullish movement seen earlier in the week. Despite this, prices remain extremely volatile. - The daily variations are currently justified by updates to the weather models, due to doubts about the evolution of conditions in Russia and also on the American plains. - Corn prices fell back below $4.60/bu in July 2024. Weekly soybean export sales were also disappointing. - For both corn and soybeans, US planting progress remains to be seen. - China: Industrial production has an annualized increase of 6.7% in April and exceeds expectations of 5.5% - China retail sales rise 2.3%, below forecast of 3.8% - Soybean premiums soar in the first half of May, reaching the highest level of the year and signaling a tighter supply in Brazil. - Brazil FOB premiums continue to rise, which is narrowing the gap with the US. Brazilian offers for late summer are only $0.10-0.13 per bushel below the US compared to the gap of $1.10-1.50 in March. - Support for July soybeans is between $11.90-12.00, while it seeks to advance sales on rallies to new highs. - On Thursday (16), the funds were net sellers of 2,000 contracts of wheat, 4,000 of corn and 2,000 of soybean meal, and bought 1,000 contracts of soybeans and 3,000 of soybean oil. - We now estimate that the funds have sold positions of 38,000 contracts of Chicago wheat, 108,000 of corn, 34,000 of soybeans and 69,000 of soybean oil, and purchases of 88,000 of soybean meal. ➡️ By Esteban Moscariello -- 📌📈

Commodities Weekly: 5/8 - 9/8, 2024 Grain markets remained resilient early in the week despite broader financial market declines, but losses set in by midweek as expectations of record yields and improved US crop ratings pressured prices. By Friday, CBOT corn and soybeans hit new lows, while wheat found some support from global tenders. Read more: https://lnkd.in/dG9PNyYQ

🔵💬 Market Briefs in the Morning by Esteban Moscariello: - Soybean futures (SU) are near 10.71. US old crop soybean export commitments are 14% below last year. Bulls need more US soybean sales to break above 11.00 on futures. - US dollar unchanged. Slower US economy and lower US rates could weigh on the dollar. Some expect this to support commodity prices. Crude oil unchanged. Gold on the rise. - Warm and dry weather in the western Corn Belt over the next few weeks is gradually stimulating discussions among US traders and in particular is starting to stimulate buybacks by funds with record short positions in corn and soybeans year to date. - Rising soybean meal prices with a strike threat in Argentina and dry weather in the US encourage fund hedging and soybeans react in Chicago. - These markets are also supported by good weekly export sales. In corn, 745,200 t were sold in the new 2024/2025 campaign, above expectations, as well as in soybeans, with 829,700 t in 2024/2025, above expectations. - While corn and soybean exports are strengthening, US wheat exports, which have been booming in recent weeks, are slowing sharply. - China bought two cargoes of US soybeans for November from the Gulf and one Brazilian cargo for August/September, in addition to three for the new Brazilian crop. - The macroeconomic context, which was depressed the day before by the economic slowdown in China, improved yesterday (25). - US growth in the second quarter of 2024 was 2.8% year-on-year, well above the 2.1% expected. As a result, financial markets have recovered slightly. The larger-than-expected drop in weekly US oil inventories is supporting a slight rebound in crude oil. - In corn, the harvest in Argentina is progressing at 86.6% with a projection of 46.5 Mt. - For the 2024/25 campaign in Argentina, wheat sowing is in its final stage with 98.5% of the 6.3 Mha planned sown, while barley covers 97.4% of the 1.3 MHa projected. - Recent light rains in central and eastern Argentina have allowed wheat sowing to be completed in the northern and southern regions. Water conditions are assessed as adequate/optimal, reflecting an increase of 5.7%. - The 2024/25 corn campaign in central Argentina faces a significant decline in planting intention, estimated at 30% compared to last year, due to various climatic and economic factors. - A Ukrainian corn crop of 23-24 million tons (Mt) is expected. Due to low carryover supplies, exports for the 2024/25 crop year will be limited to 19.5-21.5 Mt, compared to 28 Mt in 2023/24. - The loss of corn and sunflower seed production in the Black Sea disrupts regional trade flows and, over time, sends corn demand towards the United States. - This Thursday (25), funds sold 5,000 wheat contracts and bought 9,000 corn, 9,000 soybeans, 5,000 soybean meal and 2,000 soybean oil. ➡️ By Esteban Moscariello -- 📌📈

🚀📈 Missed #Nvidia? There’s still a chance to get on the #AI bandwagon, especially with AI #metals. My colleague and commodities expert, Ole Sloth Hansen, discusses the short-term and long-term drivers of key commodities. While a tepid China recovery can be a headwind, long-term drivers for metals like #Copper, including the #EnergyTransition and #AIDemand, are just getting started. 🌍🔋🤖 #Commodities #InvestmentStrategy #TechGrowth #MarketOpportunities

📊 Weekly Commodity Update (June 17-23) 🌾💼 https://lnkd.in/dVKyW4Xk The past week has seen significant movements in the commodity markets. Here’s a detailed breakdown of the changes: 🔼 $CL #CrudeOil: +2.91% Crude oil prices surged this week, driven by supply constraints and geopolitical tensions. 🔼 $RB #RBOBGasoline: +4.75% Gasoline prices rose sharply due to increased demand during the summer driving season. 🔼 $BRN #BrentCrude: +3.17% Brent crude followed the upward trend of crude oil, influenced by global economic conditions. 🔼 $HO #HeatingOil: +0.85% Heating oil saw a modest gain, reflecting seasonal fluctuations and supply factors. 🔼 $BO #SoybeanOil: +0.60% Soybean oil prices edged up slightly, supported by strong demand in the biodiesel sector. 🔼 $KC #Coffee: +1.07% Coffee prices increased, benefiting from favorable market conditions and supply concerns. 🔼 $LH #LeanHogs: +0.96% Lean hogs posted gains amid reports of tightening supplies and strong export demand. 🔻 $NG #NaturalGas: -6.11% Natural gas prices dropped significantly due to mild weather and ample storage levels. 🔻 $ZW #Wheat: -8.36% Wheat prices fell sharply, pressured by higher global production estimates and favorable weather. 🔻 $KE #WinterWheat: -7.37% Winter wheat also declined, reflecting similar trends as the broader wheat market. 🔻 $ZC #Corn: -3.33% Corn prices decreased, influenced by improving crop conditions and strong production forecasts. 🔻 $ZS #Soybeans: -1.63% Soybean prices were down, weighed by trade uncertainties and favorable planting weather. 🔻 $SB #Sugar: -2.37% Sugar prices dipped, impacted by higher-than-expected production and reduced demand. 🔻 $CT #Cotton: -3.82% Cotton prices saw a decline, driven by weak demand and improved crop conditions. Staying informed about these trends is crucial for making strategic investment decisions in the commodities market. 📈📉 #CommodityMarket #Trading #Investing #Oil #Agriculture #MarketTrends #Finance #InvestmentStrategies

🌟 Weekly Commodities Market Update | Dec 23–29 🌾📊 Here’s a quick look at the movers in the commodity markets this week: 📈 Top Gainers: ✅ Wheat ($ZW) +2.72% ✅ Corn ($ZC) +1.68% ✅ Soybeans ($ZS) +1.62% ✅ Crude Oil ($CL) +1.15% ✅ Soybean Oil ($ZL) +1.52% 📉 Top Decliners: ❌ Cocoa ($CC) -17.38% ❌ Natural Gas ($NG) -9.02% ❌ Lean Hogs ($HE) -2.04% ❌ Coffee ($KC) -1.02% ❌ Sugar ($SB) -0.77% 👉 Insights: Energy markets were mixed, with Crude Oil climbing while Natural Gas dropped significantly. Agricultural commodities showed strength, led by Wheat and Corn. Cocoa suffered the sharpest decline, shedding over 17%. 💬 What are your thoughts on these trends? Let’s discuss in the comments below! #Commodities #MarketInsights #Finance #Investment #MarketUpdate #Trading #Mavefund

GRAINS-Soybeans, corn firm as softer dollar prompts short-covering SINGAPORE, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Chicago corn and soybeans inched higher on Monday, with weakness in the U.S. dollar prompting short-covering in agricultural commodities, although gains were curbed by expectations of a bumper U.S. production. Wheat retreated after climbing earlier in the session to its highest levels in more than one week. The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Sv1 was up 0.7% at $10.34-1/4 a bushel, as of 0254 GMT, and corn Cv1 edged 0.1% higher to $4.03-3/4 a bushel. Wheat Wv1 lost 0.6% to $5.36 a bushel. The markets were supported by a weaker dollar, which makes greenback-priced commodities cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. Japan's yen hit mid-January highs against the dollar at Asia open on Monday, as markets extended moves triggered last week after weak U.S. labour data stoked recession worries and expectations of deeper rate cuts by the Fed. On the fundamental front, French farmers had harvested 67% of this year's soft wheat crop by July 29, advancing from 41% a week earlier though well behind the usual pace as rain continued to disrupt field work, data from farm office FranceAgriMer showed on Friday. Moderate rains in Argentina's farming heartland over the next few days are expected to benefit the 2024/25 wheat crop, which has suffered from dry and cold conditions, the Buenos Aires grain exchange (BdeC) said Thursday. Speculators anticipating ample grain and oilseed supplies have amassed large net short positions in CBOT soybeans, corn and wheat futures. Large speculators trimmed their net short position in CBOT corn futures in the week ended July 30, regulatory data released on Friday showed. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly commitments of traders report also showed that non-commercial traders, a category that includes hedge funds, increased their net short position in CBOT wheat and increased their net short position in soybeans.

📰 A 4.3% drop in #soybean #oil prices puts pressure on #palm and #sunflower oil markets 🤔 After a speculative gain of 11% since the start of July, soybean oil futures fell yesterday amid an improvement in the state of the US soybean crop and traders taking profits.   📉 August soybean futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange fell 4.3% to $1,020/t yesterday, giving up a week's gain but still remaining 5% higher than a month ago.   ⚖ According to USDA's NASS, the number of U.S. soybeans in good or excellent condition increased 2% to 68% for the week (51% last year), which also increased pressure on soybean and soybean oil quotes.   📉 September Brent crude oil futures for 4 sessions fell by 3.3% to $84.6/barrel (-2% for the week, +4.1% for the month), which also negatively affects quotations of vegetable oils and oil cultures   📉 Awaiting the Malaysian Palm Oil Board's supply and demand report and following soybean oil prices, August palm oil futures on Bursa yesterday fell 2% to RM3,959/t or $841/t (-3.3% per week), as traders expect inventories to increase due to increased production and reduced exports. According to the average estimate of 12 planters, traders and analysts polled by Reuters, palm oil stocks rose by 4.53% to 1.83 million tons in June.   🔎 The average price of sunflower oil delivered to buyers during the week fell 0.8% to $920/t, amid increased competition from cheap palm oil in the Indian market and increased supply of canola oil in the EU, according to Trading Economics. 📻 Source: GrainTrade / Ukrainian electronic grain exchange Best regards. Agricultural commodity trader, Oleg Shklovtsov.

📊 #GRAIN #MARKET PERSPECTIVES – JUNE 20, 2024 💡 Market Perspectives is a weekly publication that offers readers information about current coarse grain markets including price, weather and freight data important for buying U.S. grains and their co-products. 🔎 Outlook: Significant choppiness in the corn market this week with prices dropping sharply early in the week, then rebounding prior to the Juneteeth holiday in the U.S., but then moving lower again once trading resumed after the short holiday break. Weakness in Russian FOB wheat prices is weighing on wheat and grain markets around the world. From their peak in early June, Russian FOB wheat prices have dropped $20/MT (54.4 cents per bushel). During that same time, Chicago July wheat futures have dropped from a high of $7.20 to a recent low of $5.65 per bushel, a drop of $1.55 per bushel. The movement in corn prices has been more muted. Chicago July corn peaked at $4.71 when wheat peaked at $7.20 and the recent low for corn has been $4.38, just 33 cents off of the peak. New crop, December corn futures have had a move similar to July corn, with a high on May 28th of $4.93 and a recent low of $4.58, a 35-cent range. or coarse grains, world production is projected to be 8.8 MMT greater in 2024/25 than it was in 2023/24 and trade in coarse grains is expected to be 8.7 MMT less than 2023/24. For wheat, world production is now expected to be 3.2 MMT greater than 2023/24 but world trade is expected to be down 6.2 MMT from 2023/24 levels. For oilseeds, despite the production problems in South America, oilseed production is expected to be 29 MMT greater in 2024/25 than in 2023/24 and trade only 7.5 MMT greater. The potential build-up in ending stocks is overwhelming the near-term uncertainties that have accompanied the supply shocks. 📻 Source: https://lnkd.in/e9TG2twM Best regards. Agricultural commodity trader, Oleg Shklovtsov.