Oleg Shklovtsov’s Post

A 4.3% drop in soybean oil prices puts pressure on palm and sunflower oil markets fter a speculative gain of 11% since the start of July, soybean oil futures fell yesterday amid an improvement in the state of the US soybean crop and traders taking profits.   August soybean futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange fell 4.3% to $1,020/t yesterday, giving up a week's gain but still remaining 5% higher than a month ago.   According to USDA's NASS, the number of U.S. soybeans in good or excellent condition increased 2% to 68% for the week (51% last year), which also increased pressure on soybean and soybean oil quotes.   September Brent crude oil futures for 4 sessions fell by 3.3% to $84.6/barrel (-2% for the week, +4.1% for the month), which also negatively affects quotations of vegetable oils and oil cultures   Awaiting the Malaysian Palm Oil Board's supply and demand report and following soybean oil prices, August palm oil futures on Bursa yesterday fell 2% to RM3,959/t or $841/t (-3.3% per week), as traders expect inventories to increase due to increased production and reduced exports. According to the average estimate of 12 planters, traders and analysts polled by Reuters, palm oil stocks rose by 4.53% to 1.83 million tons in June.   The average price of sunflower oil delivered to buyers during the week fell 0.8% to $920/t, amid increased competition from cheap palm oil in the Indian market and increased supply of canola oil in the EU, according to Trading Economics.

📰 Speculative rise in #oil prices supported #oilseeds markets, but they await USDA data on the US #soybean crop and Canadian #canola 🌪️ A strong hurricane that covered the east coast of the United States led to a speculative increase in oil prices, which supported quotations of vegetable oils and canola.   📈 December Brent oil futures rose by 3.6% to $79.4/barrel yesterday (+10% since the beginning of the month).   📉 Meanwhile, December palm oil futures on the Malaysian exchange yesterday fell 0.4% to 4,233 ringgit/t or $987/t (+1.2% for the week) on data of a rise in domestic oil inventories and a sharp reduction in imports India in September.   🤔 During September, Malaysian palm oil stocks rose 6.93% to an 8-month high, while analysts had expected a rise of just 3%, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. At the same time, palm oil production decreased by 3.8%, and exports increased by 0.93%.   📈 November rapeseed futures on the Paris MATIF yesterday rose 1% to €496/t or $542/t (+3.9% for the week, +7% for the month) amid higher oil and biodiesel prices.   🔎 In #Ukraine, export purchase prices for rapeseed in the ports of the Black Sea increased by UAH 200-300/t to UAH 23,700-23,900/t or $505-510/t during the week as a result of reduced offers from producers against the background of active demand.   📉 Canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange fell 1.6% for the week to CAD 612/t or $444/t (+7.3% on the month) on the back of faster harvesting and increased supply, as well as lower exports and lower prices on soybeans in the United States.   📉 November soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell 3% on the week to $374/t (+1.5% on the month) amid an improved outlook for the US soybean crop and an acceleration of planting in Brazil thanks to increased rainfall. 📻 Source: GrainTrade / Ukrainian electronic grain exchange Best regards. Agricultural commodity trader, Oleg Shklovtsov.

📰 #Rapeseed prices in #Ukraine remain at a #high level, supported by forecasts of a decrease in #soybean and #sunflower harvests 🤔 Over the past week, stock market quotations for rapeseed, soybeans and soybean oil fell sharply, which led to a drop in purchase prices for rapeseed in Ukraine, although demand for it remains quite high.   💡 August rapeseed futures on the Paris Stock Exchange remain under pressure from lower oil and soybean oil prices and are trading at €467.25/t or $509.5/t, in line with last month's level, although they have risen over the period and fell by 10%.   📉 December soybean oil futures in Chicago fell 7.3% to $998/t since July 8, giving up the speculative gains of the previous two weeks, but still 3% above last month's reading.   📉 September futures for Brent crude fell by 2.4% to $83.8/barrel over the same period, which is almost the same as the previous month.   📉 November canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange fell 4.7% to CAD 621/t or $454/t during this time (-0.6% for the month).   🔎 In Ukraine, the purchase prices for rape with delivery to the Black Sea ports decreased by UAH 300-500/t during the week to UAH 21,700-22,200/t or $470-475/t, but producers are beginning to hold back sales, hoping for an increase in prices on forecasts of a decrease soybean and sunflower harvest due to abnormal heat.   🔎 Demand prices for rapeseed deliveries to the EU in July-August have also fallen by €10/t to €455-460/t, but truckload offers are very low thanks to competitive prices at Black Sea ports.   💡 EU rapeseed oil prices continue to fall as supply increases, and are already lower than sunflower oil prices, which have been supported by possible crop reductions in Ukraine and the Russian Federation amid intense heat. 📻 Source: GrainTrade / Ukrainian electronic grain exchange Best regards. Agricultural commodity trader, Oleg Shklovtsov.

Brent oil futures for June deliveries on the London ICE Futures exchange on Friday rose by 0.8% to $ 90.45 per barrel, and on Monday fell by 0.34% to $ 90.14 per barrel (-0.5% for the week, +4.5% for the month). Along with this, palm and soybean oil quotes fell. Malaysia increased crude palm oil production by 10.57% in March compared to February, reaching 1.39 million tons, and exports increased by 28.61% to 1.32 million tons, which reduced inventories by 10.68% to a 10-month low of 1.71 million tons. From April 1 to April 15, palm oil exports from Malaysia increased by 9.2% compared to the same period in March, reaching 633.7 thousand tons according to Intertek Testing Services and 28.5% to 697.45 thousand tons. After the end of Ramadan, oil production is expected to increase. In the April USDA report, the forecast for the production of veg oils in the world was increased from 222.85 to 223.17 million tons (against 217.88 million tons in 2022/23 MG), and the forecast for palm oil imports to India and China was reduced by 0.2 million tons to 9 and 6 million tons, respectively, and its exports from Indonesia were reduced by 0.35 million tons up to 27.35 million tons. May soybean oil futures in Chicago fell by 5.2% over the week to $ 1002 per ton (-7.2% per month) amid an increase in the supply of cheap soybeans from South America. Even data on the expansion of soybean processing in the United States did not support prices. According to NOPA, in March, soybean processing in the United States amounted to a record 5.35 million tons, which exceeded analysts' forecasts and by 5.7% - the March 2023 figure. Sales of soybean oil increased by 9.5% compared to February, reaching 840 thousand tons, which is almost the same as in March 2023. The average price of sunflower oil with delivery to customers decreased by 0.8% in a week to $873 per ton, and in Ukraine prices dropped by 5-10 dollars per ton to $800-805 per ton with delivery to the ports of the Black Sea, $840-850 per ton with delivery to Bulgaria, $880-890 per ton with delivery to Italy. Against the background of a decrease in the forecast for palm oil exports, the USDA raised the forecast for sunflower oil exports from Ukraine by 0.15 million tons to 5.9 million tons and Russia by 0.1 million tons to 4.4 million tons due to an increase in imports by Egypt by 0.25 million tons to 0.6 million tons. The cost of Black Sea sunflower oil remains stable, and India is concluding deals at a price of $ 960 per ton with deliveries in May. At the local level, the Indian market is active, but the depreciation of the euro against the dollar limits the ability of traders to meet local requirements. In Europe, prices for sunflower oil fluctuate around $ 960 per ton, while buyers tend to purchase it at a price of $ 940 per ton. It is expected that the price correction for sunflower oil will be completed in the near future, and prices in the range of 920-950 USD will present an attractive opportunity for buyers.

📰 #Rapeseed prices support forecasts of a reduced crop in the EU and rising #oil prices 📈 June Brent crude oil futures rose 4% for the week to a 5.5-month high of $89/barrel amid Ukrainian drone attacks on an oil refinery in Tatarstan and an Israeli strike on an Iranian general in Syria. Such news leads to a speculative rise in oil prices, which supports quotations for vegetable oils used in the production of biodiesel.   ⚖ The agency Strategie Grains lowered its forecast for rapeseed production in the EU in 2024 from 18.3 to 18.1 million tons, which would be 10% less than last year's 19.9 million tons, due to a lower than expected harvest in France. To compensate for the reduction in production, the EU will increase imports of rapeseed from Ukraine and Australia in the 2024/25 FY.   📈 At the same time, the agency's experts left the forecast for sunflower production in the EU in 2024 at the level of 10.7 million tons (which will exceed the 2023 harvest by 10%), and soybeans at the level of 3.1 million tons (9% more than last year).   📈 August new-harvest canola futures on the MATIF exchange rose 1.5% yesterday to €452/t or $487/t (+8.7% on the month), while May futures rose 1.7% to 445, €75/t or $480/t (+6.8% m/m) as they remain under pressure from low soybean prices due to a bumper crop in South America.   📊 May canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange last week fell 2.4% to CAD 635/t, or $468/t, adding 6.5% for the month amid rising MATIF quotes. Canola prices are being supported by a lack of rainfall in some parts of Canada, with November new crop canola futures trading CAD20/t higher than May.   🔎 In #Ukraine, rapeseed prices for delivery to Black Sea ports rose to UAH 17,000/t, and in the western regions for EXW-elevator for rail deliveries to Germany - to UAH 15,500-16,000/t against the background of the increase in the interbank dollar exchange rate.   🤔 Polish "farmers" continue to block Ukraine's border with Poland, which keeps rapeseed prices in the EU at a high level, although rapeseed stocks in Ukraine are almost exhausted. 📻 Source: https://lnkd.in/evaCeXxk Best regards. Agricultural commodity trader, Oleg Shklovtsov.

📰 Quotations for #soybean and palm oil remain stable, despite the drop in oil prices 💡 Soybean and palm oil futures traded flat during the week, despite data on increased exports from Malaysia and a drop in canola and canola oil prices. Also, the markets did not react to the decrease in forecasts of the sunflower harvest in Ukraine and the Russian Federation due to the heat.   📈 December soybean oil futures in Chicago rose 10% in early July, but then fell for two weeks to $993/t (+3% for the month) under pressure from favorable weather for the US soybean crop.   ⚖ According to USDA's NASS, soybeans in the U.S. remain in good or excellent condition at 68% (54% last year), and crop development is 5% ahead of the 5-year average.   🤔 Active soybean exports from Brazil and increased supplies of soybean oil and meal from Argentina increase pressure on global quotations.   📈 September #palm oil futures on Bursa rose 1% during the week to 3,969 ringgits/t, or $850/t, despite a substantial increase in exports in July.   ⚖ According to surveyors Intertek Testing Services and AmSpec Agri Malaysia, during July 1-20, Malaysia increased palm oil exports by 39.2-41.4% compared to the same period in June. Oil production is also increasing, but to a lesser extent, so lower inventories at the end of the month could lead to higher quotes.   💡 According to Trading Economics, during the week the average price of sunflower oil with delivery to buyers increased by 0.5% to $910/t. Prices almost did not react to forecasts of a 15-20% decrease in the sunflower harvest in Ukraine and the Russian Federation and remain under pressure from an increase in the supply of rapeseed and soybean oil.   🔎 In #Ukraine, demand prices for #sunflower #oil remain at the level of $900/t with delivery to ports and $830-850/t FCA - factory.   📉 September Brent oil futures for the week fell by 3.3% to $81/barrel (-4.9% for the month) against the background of worse than expected data on the state of the US economy, which in the long run may reduce the demand for oil In addition, there is growing political uncertainty associated with Biden's refusal to run for President of the United States.   🤔 A drop in oil prices to $80/barrel and below will increase pressure on vegetable oil prices, as biodiesel producers have been the driver of recent price increases. 📻 Source: GrainTrade / Ukrainian electronic grain exchange Best regards. Agricultural commodity trader, Oleg Shklovtsov.

CIF/FOB Gulf Grain-Corn, soybean barge bids turn higher as futures slump Oct 14 (Reuters) - Basis bids for corn and soybeans shipped by barge to Gulf Coast export terminals rose on Monday, as futures prices fell and demand stayed steady, traders said. Traders said Chinese importers continue to be in the market for U.S. soybeans for shipment in November and December, while some buyers are also looking at possibly booking January shipments. The world's top soy importer is also looking at booking new-crop Brazilian soybeans, traders said. Elevated barge freight rates continued to underpin CIF basis values, as river levels — particularly along parts of the Mississippi River — continue to fall or are at near historic lows. CIF January soybean barges traded at 86 cents over Chicago Board of Trade January soybean SF25 futures. Meanwhile, CIF October soybean barges were bid 9 cents higher at about 100 cents over Chicago Board of Trade November soybean SX24 futures. FOB offers for November soybean shipments held at around 113 cents over futures and December offers were about 97 cents over January SF25 futures. CIF corn barges loaded in October were bid 4 cents higher at 74 cents over CBOT December CZ24 futures. FOB Gulf offers for November corn shipments stayed at about 114 cents over futures, while offers for December shipments were steady at about 112 cents over futures.

Morning Wrap up: Soybean basis bounced Trades reported in the CFR China for July. Basis bounced from the lows of the week. Palm oil futures on the DCE remain strong due to the lower stocks at Chinese ports. The large number of vessels going to China acts as a ceiling for basis, as do the worsening crush margins. In Brazil, soybean basis hit new highs in the interior. In Sorriso-MT basis reached -162n for June shipment, 20 cents above LW and almost 300 cents above LY. Soybean meal sales in China lost momentum again – 100% of the 107,600 tons was for spot. Lower ocean freights were also a highlight for this week. In the corn market, Brazil is receiving demands for July and August shipments, providing support to prices at the moment. Logistics in Brazil will remain limited, making more room for Arg and the US. Additionally, the origination margin is negative and producers are holding onto corn and selling beans... Continue reading at https://lnkd.in/d6ewd3uB or get in touch for access to daily updates and reports.

As of November 5, soybean oil stocks in Chinese ports amounted to 1.081 million tons, down 7 thousand tons (0.64%) from a week earlier and down 6 thousand tons (0.55%) from a month earlier. According to statistics, over the past 3 years (since November 9, 2021), the maximum level of soybean oil stocks was 1.088 million tons, the minimum was 436 thousand tons. Current stocks are 45.8% higher than the 3-year average (741.4 thousand tons).

CIF/FOB Gulf Grain-Corn basis firm on good demand, lower futures June 4 (Reuters) - Basis bids for corn shipped by barge to U.S. Gulf Coast terminals and loaded for export were steady to higher on Tuesday on good demand and lower futures prices, traders said. U.S. corn demand from some importers in Europe has improved due to limited corn supplies from Ukraine and high feed wheat costs, traders said. CIF Gulf June corn barge bids gained 2 cents to 52 cents over Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) July futures CN24 while July barge bids held at 53 cents over futures. Export premiums for June corn loadings rose to 56 cents over CBOT July futures, while corn loadings in July rose to 60 cents a bushel over futures, each up 2 cents. Basis bids for soybean barges at the Gulf were weaker on seasonally slow export demand. CIF Gulf soybean barges loaded in June fell 2 cents to 50 cents a bushel over CBOT July futures SN24 and July barge bids were down 3 cents at 54 cents over futures. Soybean export premiums for June loadings were around 68 cents over CBOT July futures and July loadings were offered steady at 69 cents over futures, both unchanged.