Karen Gilchrist’s Post

Louise van Schaik shares her take in the article 'Judy Asks: Does the French Vote Weaken Europe?' ⤵ Because of his arguably irresponsible decision to call a snap election, Macron’s standing in Europe has weakened. This is despite voters and political parties joining forces and making smart use of the French electoral system to keep the radical right out as much as possible. Combined with a German coalition government that is rather unstable and has taken a beating in the European Parliament elections, France is less likely now to steer strategic decisions on European integration. It is unclear, for instance, whether the EU can push forward a joined-up defense industry and new ways to finance its competitiveness without a well-functioning Franco-German axis and French visionary ideas for Europe. Macron did bring the EU up to speed up on crucial issues like strategic autonomy and economic security. He dared to address sensitivities—for instance that the EU should not be taken for granted and that European boots on the ground might eventually be needed in Ukraine. Now, any position he will take can be undermined or at least discussed by new strongholds in France, which likely will take a more anti-globalist left leaning perspective. It can be expected that others will fill some of the void, possibly Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the European Commission president, but a strong French voice will be missed even when sometimes rather arrogant and unpredictable. 🔎 Read more expert views https://lnkd.in/epKVNmT3 Carnegie Europe

🇫🇷 The Far-Right won’t govern France: Le Pen/Bardella only 3rd after the Left (big win) and the Macronists (who hold) What if Macron’s strategy wasn’t a gamble? As his minority government was set to lose political support while facing a rising far right, he counterintuitively decided to accelerate that process as the best antidote against its full realization. Today’s electoral results proved him right, and despite the uncertainties linked to the formation of the next government, Macron remains in the picture as does his party. Isn't that what he sought for? Yet months of political gridlock could lie ahead. The most likely scenario is the left coalition to split and the moderate sides of the Socialists and the Greens forming a government with Macron’s Ensemble. The ongoing French electoral reshuffle coincides with major reconfiguration of EU political landscape. A result of this unexpected electoral result, Macron will continue to have a chance to shape not only France - albeit downsized in political influence - but also the EU, and to do that on the eve of the vote on VdL and the next College of Commissioners and new EU political agenda. #legislatives2024

»This is Meloni’s big strategy, a powerbase in Europe that looks like her own right-wing coalition in Italy. The goal of both Le Pen and Meloni is to dismantle the centrist majority that has been in charge of EU politics practically forever.« If #Europe moves away from the center at the next elections, then the #GreenDeal will be mostly undone and there won't be any major effort in the next five years when it comes to ambitious climate policies and the #EcologicalModernization of European industry. Unless national governments push ahead, but that would require intergovernmental consensus, at least between Germany and France and a majority of the smaller member states. Europe is in danger of losing its future.

The latest from the Globe and Mail's business commentary, by Eric Reguly: French politics just got messier, and may stay messy for a long time as political paralysis sets in. A round of jostling and squabbling among the party bosses is certain, with an uncertain outcome, and a stalemate possible, while the economy and markets will stay jittery.

🇪🇺 The success of what are commonly characterized as populist and far-right parties in the founding members of the European Union - Germany, France, and Italy - is a growing concern for Brussels. Over the past week, these parties achieved significant gains, upending the traditional centrist dominance in EU politics. However, ideological heterogeneity among right-leaning blocs and conflicting views on Russia and China could limit coalition-building initiatives. Without a clear, homogenous vision, political infighting will give centrist parties an even better chance to form a fortified bulwark. The election stands out as a pivotal moment, reflecting deep-rooted anxieties over issues like immigration, economic stagnation, and a perceived loss of national sovereignty as external threats weigh on policymakers and voters alike. 🔭 Let’s use our geopolitical telescope to analyze these new political-celestial bodies ⬇ https://lnkd.in/gbtCjQPB

France's coalition aversion jeopardizes stability of any new government. France’s Aversion to Coalitions Risks Early Collapse of New Government In a recent development that has captured global attention and topped Google search trends today, France faces significant political instability as the country’s leaders continue to resist forming coalitions. This aversion to alliances could lead to the premature collapse of any new government. For more detailed information, refer to this news article. Snap Election and Political Stalemate On July 9, 2024, France held a snap election that resulted in a deeply fragmented National Assembly. The election brought forth three roughly equal political blocs, each unwilling to compromise or form what […] https://lnkd.in/dDK9QVcv https://lnkd.in/dJWQ6rRi

This Thursday we turn our attention once again to France. Many people in Brussels are watching this election closely following the French results in the EU Parliamentary polls. Now the Council is the legislator in focus for those in EU affairs as France decides how their own government will be composed. Our analysts will discuss the key pointers to watch: • What do the latest polls tell us about second round races? • Will France be put into Excessive Deficit Procedure during the campaign? • Will Le Pen continue to play by the Meloni playbook? • What are the chances of a right-wing coalition? • How likely can the left implement its disruptive fiscal programme? • What would happen in a hung parliament? 🗓 Thursday 20 June 🕒 15.00-15.30 🔗 https://lnkd.in/ewY6xgUH

🇪🇺 As the EUCO meeting on the 27/28 June approaches, Giorgia Meloni, one of only two ECR heads of government among 27 member states, faces a challenge. John Duhig and Jon Rhodes look at some of the options she may be considering, a number of which would have profound implications for EU political and legislative activities Read the full story on the BOLDT website 🔍 https://lnkd.in/gz-jKy2F #BOLDTnews #europe #europeanpolitics #eupolitics