Magnus Hornø Gottlieb’s Post

Weekly power simulation, week 6 of 2024 Another very windy week, almost exclusively powered by renewable energy. Interestingly, Thursday night saw wind and solar generation drop to almost zero for a few hours. Here, the model's five hours' worth of storage kicks in to fill the gap. But what's important is not so much whether the storage can fill the gap entirely - what's important is its ability to reduce the need for other generation or imports. In this case, the shortfall is reduced from app. 8.4GW to 3.2GW. By no means a trivial task, but there's a huge difference between needing 3.2GW, and needing 8.4GW. ----- Each week, I run a simulation using real-world generation data from the Danish power grid, with #windenergy and #solarenergy scaled to match future (2033) capacities, as forecasted by the Danish Energy Agency. See earlier posts by searching for #WeeklyPowerSimulation The original idea for such a simplified, but very illustrative, simulation is David Osmond's from Australian Windlab. His version is found on twitter here: https://t.co/5Y3UiKB5Di

Weekly power simulation, week 8 of 2024 This week saw excellent and very energetic weather, displaying plenty of wind and a quite nice solar generation throughout. The crescendo was on Friday as the low pressure wind system / storm "Rolf" passed Scandinavia, causing wind generation to break my scale. 99.4% renewable energy share. On another note: Today, the friends over at Green Power Denmark released an analysis looking deeper into the future balancing challenges of the Danish energy system. Like me, they conclude that in the future (2030), the high share of solar and wind, together with legacy installations, will suffice 99% of the time. However, the challenge is the 1% with extreme weather - i.e. cold and quiet winter days, where Denmark may need up to 2.6GW additional dispatchable generation. They conclude there's a need to introduce new capacity mechanisms to ensure that is in place. And also recommend a politically agreed storage target, and better market driven incentives for flexible consumption. As an thought provoking data point: Green Power Denmark mentions Denmark would have about 5.6GWh of storage in place by 2030, if we follow the same trajectory as Germany. That's about 40x more than what is expected by the Danish Energy Agency's standard assumptions (app. 130MWh by 2030). Personally, I'm leaning towards GWh more than MWh. ----- Each week, I run a simulation using real-world generation data from the Danish power grid, with #windenergy and #solarenergy scaled to match future (2033) capacities, as forecasted by the Danish Energy Agency. See earlier posts by searching for #WeeklyPowerSimulation The original idea for such a simplified, but very illustrative, simulation is David Osmond's from Australian Windlab. His version is found on twitter here: https://t.co/5Y3UiKB5Di

The Growing Solar Industry: Is Grid Infrastructure Keeping Pace? I recently attended #REI and was impressed by the number of #solar players pushing the boundaries with increased capacity and efficiency. The industry is clearly making strides toward a #renewable future. However, a critical question arises: Is our grid infrastructure ready to support this rapid growth? With the government yet to focus heavily on expanding the grid, distribution could become a major challenge in the near future. Do people feel that the government is doing enough in this area, or is it a matter of concern that needs more attention? What are your thoughts? How can we address potential bottlenecks in the power distribution system as solar capacity continues to soar? Join the conversation and share your insights on how we can ensure sustainable grid development alongside the renewable energy revolution. 🌞⚡️ #SolarEnergy #RenewableEnergy #GridInfrastructure #REI #EnergyTransition #Sustainability #FutureofEnergy #MNRE #PowerGrid #EnergyDepartment #ElectricityDistribution #GovtOfIndia #EnergyPolicy #SolarIndia #MakeInIndia

NTP Study insight 2. My previous post was about the hundreds of billions in savings from #transmission estimated in the National Transmission Planning (NTP) study. But how does transmission expansion lead to such significant savings? One reason is that low cost / high capacity factor #wind sites in the central U.S. are located far from high demand centers (see figure). Without transmission, those best-in-the-world wind sites would be stranded and lower capacity factor wind locations or other more costly resources would have to be relied upon. But the savings from transmission are not just from accessing wind. Transmission expansion is needed to relieve the #interconnection barriers for all resources, including #solar. The study estimates that the share of variable #renewable energy is 20 percentage points higher with accelerated transmission expansion compared to the limited transmission case. (For context, total renewable generation in the U.S. is ~20% today.) But it’s not just about accessing renewables. As I’ll discuss in the next post, the benefits of transmission are also due to its ability so support #reliability. The DOE report can be found here: https://lnkd.in/gNtd5N5f       Thanks to Anthony Lopez and Grant Buster for their work in modeling renewable energy potential and interconnection costs, which are foundational to the grid modeling used in the study.

Weekly power simulation, week 25 of 2024 For many weeks now, renewable electricity has been abundant in the daytime, thanks to 24GW solar PV in our simulation. However, night time can present the occasional challenge, if there's a wind lull. Most times, the model's 36GWh battery storage kicks in and is enough to fill the gap. However this Thursday night, batteries wasn't enough. Fortunately, however, the simulated Danish power grid was still able to maintain 100% renewable energy share last week, by activating 16.3 GWh's worth of demand side flexibility, namely EV charging, heat pumps and data centers. ----- Each week, I run a simulation using real-world generation data from the Danish power grid, with #windenergy and #solarenergy scaled to match future (2033) capacities, as forecasted by the Danish Energy Agency. See earlier posts by searching for #WeeklyPowerSimulation. The original idea for such a simplified, but very illustrative, simulation is David Osmond's from Australian Windlab. His version is found on twitter here: https://t.co/5Y3UiKB5Di

Weekly power simulation, week 23 of 2024 Another beautiful week in the Danish energy system, with lots of wind and solar, making up 100% of power demand, plus enabling hydrogen and power-to-X to run at 91% capacity. Roughly 20% of renewable generation is 'excess' to be either exported, or curtailed. Power demand tends to be lower in the summer - at least, it is today, which is what this simulation is based on. Denmark consumes about 20-25% less power in June, compared to January (respectively 3.7GW and 4.7GW on average) ----- Each week, I run a simulation using real-world generation data from the Danish power grid, with #windenergy and #solarenergy scaled to match future (2033) capacities, as forecasted by the Danish Energy Agency. See earlier posts by searching for #WeeklyPowerSimulation. The original idea for such a simplified, but very illustrative, simulation is David Osmond's from Australian Windlab. His version is found on twitter here: https://t.co/5Y3UiKB5Di

#Selectedpapers in #Batteries_MDPI in topic "supercapacitors" "An Experimental Study of Power Smoothing Methods to Reduce Renewable Sources Fluctuations Using Supercapacitors and Lithium-Ion Batteries" 🔗 Read the full article: https://brnw.ch/21wNqkc 👉 Check out more papers in this topic: https://brnw.ch/21wNqk9 Abstract The random nature of renewable sources causes power fluctuations affecting the stability in the utility grid. This problem has motivated the development of new power smoothing techniques using supercapacitors and batteries. However, experimental studies based on multiple renewable sources (photovoltaic, wind, hydrokinetic) that demonstrate the validity of power smoothing techniques under real conditions still require further study. For this reason, this article presents a feasibility study of a renewable grid-connected system, addressing various aspects based on power quality and energy management. The first of them is related to the fluctuations produced by the stochastic characteristics of renewable sources and demand. Two power smoothing algorithms are presented (ramp rate and moving average) combining photovoltaic, wind, and hydrokinetic sources with a hybrid storage system composed of supercapacitors and lithium-ion batteries. Then, the self-consumption for an industrial load is analyzed by studying the energy flows between the hybrid renewable energy sources and the grid. The main novelty of this paper is the operability of the supercapacitor. The experimental results show that when applying the power smoothing ramp rate method, the supercapacitor operates fewer cycles with respect to the moving average method. This result is maintained by varying the capacity of the renewable sources. Moreover, by increasing the capacity of photovoltaic and wind renewable sources, the hybrid storage system requires a greater capacity only of supercapacitors, while by increasing the capacity of hydrokinetic turbines, the battery requirement increases considerably. Finally, the cost of energy and self-consumption reach maximum values by increasing the capacity of the hydrokinetic turbines and batteries. Keywords: power smoothing; self-consumption; hydrokinetic; supercapacitor; experimental #openaccess #article

Weekly power simulation, week 28 of 2024 A pretty trivial week, with low winds, high solar output. Power-to-X running at 58%, which is O-K, I guess, but by no means impressive. Still, 100% renewable power to cover the load. ----- Each week, I run a simulation using real-world generation data from the Danish power grid, with #windenergy and #solarenergy scaled to match future (2033) capacities, as forecasted by the Danish Energy Agency. See earlier posts by searching for #WeeklyPowerSimulation. The original idea for such a simplified, but very illustrative, simulation is David Osmond's from Australian Windlab. His version is found on twitter here: https://t.co/5Y3UiKB5Di

A new FERC rule is set to make it easier to transmit renewable energy from wind and solar sources to the electric grid. AP News sites that the ruling comes as there's an increased demand for energy sources while "the grid is also being tested by more frequent service disruptions during extreme weather events ". As transmission of renewable energy becomes more widely available, it is important for grid operators to understand power generation based on weather conditions, like solar irradiance (GHI) and hub-height wind speeds. That's where we come in, providing top-notch, deep learning power generation forecasting to best understand supply, demand, and gain an advantage on commodity pricing. Learn more about what this new ruling could mean for energy companies and visit our website for more information on our forecasting solutions. https://hubs.la/Q02xhz7G0 #RenewableEnergy #AI #WeatherTech

Weekly power simulation, week 16 of 2024 Yet another week with solar and wind powering future-Denmark 100% of the time. Last week saw sunny spring weather here in Denmark, with most trees now budding out, and Danes enjoying the nice (albeit still not too warm) outside. The energy system was dominated by daily solar spikes upwards of 15GW, on top of a relatively consistent 'base layer' of onshore and offshore wind. In total, 2.7 TWh renewable electricity fed into the grid, of which roughly half to cover regular demand, a third available for PtX - and 0.4TWh exported or curtailed. ----- Each week, I run a simulation using real-world generation data from the Danish power grid, with #windenergy and #solarenergy scaled to match future (2033) capacities, as forecasted by the Danish Energy Agency. See earlier posts by searching for #WeeklyPowerSimulation The original idea for such a simplified, but very illustrative, simulation is David Osmond's from Australian Windlab. His version is found on twitter here: https://t.co/5Y3UiKB5Di