Oleg Shklovtsov’s Post

📰 Sunflower oil is falling in #price amid falling prices for palm and soybean #oil 🤔 Oil prices fell slightly yesterday after earlier speculative gains, despite Iran's shelling of Israel on Saturday, as the latter has not yet responded to the attack, and therefore the conflict has not escalated into open military confrontation.   📈 Brent June futures on London's ICE Futures exchange rose 0.8% to $90.45/barrel on Friday and fell 0.34% to $90.14/barrel on Monday (-0, 5% per week, +4.5% per month).   🤔 Oil prices were followed by palm oil and soybean oil quotes, especially as a report from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board turned out to be more upbeat than traders expected, adding pressure on quotes.   💡 According to the report, Malaysia in March compared to February increased crude palm oil production by 10.57% to 1.39 million tons and exports by 28.61% to 1.32 million tons, as a result of which stocks decreased by 10, 68% to the 10-month low of 1.71 million tons.   📉 June #palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia yesterday fell 1.86% to 4,204 ringgit/t or $880/t (-2.2% for the week).   🔎 For April 1-15, the export of palm oil from Malaysia increased in comparison with the same period in March by 9.2% to 633.7 thousand tons according to the estimates of the surveyor Intertek Testing Services and by 28.5% to 697.45 thousand tons according to the data of the surveyor Amspec Agri Malaysia. After the end of Ramadan, oil production will increase.   ⚖ In an April report, the USDA raised its forecast for global production of vegetable oils from 222.85 to 223.17 million tons (217.88 million tons in FY 2022/23), and lowered its forecast for palm oil imports to India and China by 0.2 million tons to 9 and 6 million tons, respectively, and its export from Indonesia by 0.35 to 27.35 million tons.   📉 May futures for #soybean oil in Chicago for the week fell by 5.2% to $1,002/t (-7.2% for the month) against the background of increasing offers of cheap soybeans from South America. Quotations were not supported even by data on the increase in soybean processing in the USA.   🔎 According to Trading Economics, for the week the average price of #sunflower oil with delivery to buyers decreased by 0.8% to $873/t, and in Ukraine prices fell by $5-10/t to $800-805/t with delivery to ports Black Sea, $840-850/t with delivery to Bulgaria, $880-890/t with delivery to Italy.   📊 Against the backdrop of a decrease in the forecast of palm oil exports, the USDA increased the forecast of sunflower oil exports from Ukraine by 0.15 to 5.9 million tons and the Russian Federation by 0.1 to 4.4 million tons due to an increase in imports by Egypt by 0.25 to 0.6 million t. 📻 Source: https://lnkd.in/e5msGt7y Best regards. Agricultural commodity trader, Oleg Shklovtsov.

📰 A sharp increase in the #price of #soybean #oil in Chicago supported the prices of other vegetable oils 📈 August soybean oil futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose 6.8% this week to the highest level since April at $1,035/t amid increased use of soybean oil in US biodiesel production and higher oil prices.   ⚖ According to the USDA, in May the volume of soybean processing in the USA increased by 7.9% compared to April to 5.23 million tons.   📈 September Brent oil futures on the ICE Futures exchange in London rose by 10% to $86.3/barrel (+2.1% for the week) on the back of improving data on the economy in the US and a possible escalation between Lebanon and Israel during the month ), which is the maximum value since the end of April.   🤔 The quotation supports the expected increase in demand for oil and fuel due to increased travel by Americans on Independence Day. In addition, the strengthening of Hurricane Beryl, which has been forming in the Atlantic since the beginning of the year, to the 5th category, may lead to a reduction in oil production in the United States.   💡 It is worth considering that the Russian Federation continues to increase oil production, and in May increased it to 9.39 million barrels/day, which is 3.8% higher than the agreed target of 9.049 million barrels/day. In addition, during June 24-30, oil exports from the Russian Federation increased by 620,000 barrels/day to a 2-month high of 3.67 million barrels/day, which will increase pressure on prices in the near future.   📈 August #palm oil futures on the Bursa exchange also rose 6% during the week to 4,089 ringgit/t or $867/t (+2.7 % per month).   💡 Malaysia cut palm oil exports by 15.4% in June compared to May, according to surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia, but the market is awaiting official data on production, exports and stocks.   📈 On the Dalian exchange, the most active contract for soybean oil rose by 2.1% yesterday, and for palm oil - by 2.75%.   🔎 According to Trading Economics, the average price of sunflower oil with delivery to customers remains at the level of last month at $930/t, as the volume of rapeseed oil offers has significantly increased on the EU market. 📻 Source: GrainTrade / Ukrainian electronic grain exchange Best regards. Agricultural commodity trader, Oleg Shklovtsov.

📰 Speculative rise in #oil prices supported #oilseeds markets, but they await USDA data on the US #soybean crop and Canadian #canola 🌪️ A strong hurricane that covered the east coast of the United States led to a speculative increase in oil prices, which supported quotations of vegetable oils and canola.   📈 December Brent oil futures rose by 3.6% to $79.4/barrel yesterday (+10% since the beginning of the month).   📉 Meanwhile, December palm oil futures on the Malaysian exchange yesterday fell 0.4% to 4,233 ringgit/t or $987/t (+1.2% for the week) on data of a rise in domestic oil inventories and a sharp reduction in imports India in September.   🤔 During September, Malaysian palm oil stocks rose 6.93% to an 8-month high, while analysts had expected a rise of just 3%, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. At the same time, palm oil production decreased by 3.8%, and exports increased by 0.93%.   📈 November rapeseed futures on the Paris MATIF yesterday rose 1% to €496/t or $542/t (+3.9% for the week, +7% for the month) amid higher oil and biodiesel prices.   🔎 In #Ukraine, export purchase prices for rapeseed in the ports of the Black Sea increased by UAH 200-300/t to UAH 23,700-23,900/t or $505-510/t during the week as a result of reduced offers from producers against the background of active demand.   📉 Canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange fell 1.6% for the week to CAD 612/t or $444/t (+7.3% on the month) on the back of faster harvesting and increased supply, as well as lower exports and lower prices on soybeans in the United States.   📉 November soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell 3% on the week to $374/t (+1.5% on the month) amid an improved outlook for the US soybean crop and an acceleration of planting in Brazil thanks to increased rainfall. 📻 Source: GrainTrade / Ukrainian electronic grain exchange Best regards. Agricultural commodity trader, Oleg Shklovtsov.

📰 Falling crude oil and #soybean #oil prices have not yet affected palm and #sunflower oil quotes 🤔 This week's 5.4% drop in crude oil prices and 5.3% drop in Chicago soybean oil prices have so far not affected palm and sunflower oil prices, which are supported by a pick-up in physical demand.   📉 June Brent oil futures on London's ICE Futures exchange fell 4.7% to $83.8/barrel for the week, and July soybean oil futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell 5.2% to $952/barrel. t.   📉 A report from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board was more upbeat than traders had expected, with June palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia falling just 0.8% for the week to 3,844 ringgit/t, or $809/t, while the market had expected their sharp decline following oil prices.   ⚖ In March, the production of crude palm oil in Malaysia increased by 10.57% compared to February to 1.39 million tons, and exports (in particular to India) - by 28.61% to 1.32 million tons, as a result of which stocks decreased by 10.68% to the 10-month low of 1.71 million tons.   📊 The world's largest buyer of vegetable oils, India, in April increased palm oil imports compared to March by 41% to a 3-month high. At the same time, Malaysia in April reduced palm oil exports compared to March by 9-11.5% (according to surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Amspec Agri) as a result of reduced demand.   ⚖ According to the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), in February 2024, palm oil exports from Indonesia decreased by 34% to 2.17 million tons compared to February 2023. This indicates that buyers prefer cheaper competitors - soybean and sunflower oil   🔎 According to Trading Economics, during the week the average price of sunflower oil with delivery to buyers fell by 13% to $857/t, in particular in #Ukraine – by $5-10/t to $790-800/t for deliveries to Black Sea ports. At the same time, the demand for oil deliveries to Poland, Italy and the Baltic countries grew, for which buyers are ready to pay $870-900/ton.   🤔 Delays in soybean harvest in Argentina are disrupting soybean oil supply timelines, helping EU sunflower and canola oil sellers to sell their products.   💡 According to Share UA Potential, Ukraine exported 628,000 tons of sunflower oil in April 2024, which is 15% higher than in April 2023 and corresponds to the level of the previous three months. In total, 4.4 million tons of sunflower oil were exported in 2023/24 MR, compared to 3.7 million tons for this period last year.   🔎 During the 2023 calendar year, Ukraine exported 5.7 million tons of sunflower oil worth $5 billion, while in 2022, 4.3 million tons of oil worth $5.5 billion were exported. 📻 Source: https://lnkd.in/e4jkmdwi Best regards. Agricultural commodity trader, Oleg Shklovtsov.

📰 A 4.3% drop in #soybean #oil prices puts pressure on #palm and #sunflower oil markets 🤔 After a speculative gain of 11% since the start of July, soybean oil futures fell yesterday amid an improvement in the state of the US soybean crop and traders taking profits.   📉 August soybean futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange fell 4.3% to $1,020/t yesterday, giving up a week's gain but still remaining 5% higher than a month ago.   ⚖ According to USDA's NASS, the number of U.S. soybeans in good or excellent condition increased 2% to 68% for the week (51% last year), which also increased pressure on soybean and soybean oil quotes.   📉 September Brent crude oil futures for 4 sessions fell by 3.3% to $84.6/barrel (-2% for the week, +4.1% for the month), which also negatively affects quotations of vegetable oils and oil cultures   📉 Awaiting the Malaysian Palm Oil Board's supply and demand report and following soybean oil prices, August palm oil futures on Bursa yesterday fell 2% to RM3,959/t or $841/t (-3.3% per week), as traders expect inventories to increase due to increased production and reduced exports. According to the average estimate of 12 planters, traders and analysts polled by Reuters, palm oil stocks rose by 4.53% to 1.83 million tons in June.   🔎 The average price of sunflower oil delivered to buyers during the week fell 0.8% to $920/t, amid increased competition from cheap palm oil in the Indian market and increased supply of canola oil in the EU, according to Trading Economics. 📻 Source: GrainTrade / Ukrainian electronic grain exchange Best regards. Agricultural commodity trader, Oleg Shklovtsov.

📰 A 9% drop in #palm oil and a 3.6% drop in #soybean oil prices for the week will increase pressure on #sunflower #oil prices 🤔 A 3.7% drop in oil prices for the week added pressure on palm oil prices, which were heavily overbought. Lower prices for palm oil will allow it to compete with soybean oil and strengthen its position in the Indian market, which is increasing imports of sunflower oil.   📉 June Brent oil futures on London's ICE Futures exchange fell 3.7% to $87.4/barrel (+2.8% for the month) for the week and may fall further if Iran does not escalate the situation. The decision of the US Congress to allocate aid to Ukraine and Israel will make Iran and the Russian Federation understand that Western countries will not allow them to violate the world order with impunity.   📉 June palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia fell 9% for the week to 3,926 ringgit/t, or $821/t (-10.6% for two weeks), amid slower exports and lower soybean oil prices.   📉 Chicago May soybean oil futures fell 3.6% to $978/t for the week (-10% in two weeks) amid advancing soybean harvest in Argentina and lower soybean prices.   🔎 According to Trading Economics, the average price of sunflower oil with delivery to customers for the week fell by 0.7% to $867/t (-2% in two weeks), in particular in Ukraine – by $5-10/t to $790-800 $/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, $840/t with delivery to Bulgaria and $870-880/t with delivery to Italy.   ⚖ According to the Vegetable Oil Producers Association of India (SEA), in the 5 months of FY2023/24, the country increased the import of sunflower oil by 20.9% to 1.35 million tons compared to the corresponding period last year, and decreased the import of palm oil by 22.9 % to 2.59 million tons and soybeans – by 39.6% to 882.94 thousand tons.   ⚖ At the same time, the Russian Federation increased supplies of sunflower oil to India by 53.7% to 490.62 thousand tons, Romania - by 3.2 times to 486.78 thousand tons, Argentina - by 2.3 times to 165.92 thousand tons.   🚀 On Friday, the Russian Federation attacked two oil extraction plants in the port of Pivdenny to reduce the export of sunflower oil from Ukraine and gain an advantage in the world market for sales of Russian oil. After the "gas war" with Europe in 2022 and the "grain" war with Ukraine in 2022-23, the Russian Federation started a new war against Ukrainian sunflower oil. 📻 Source: https://lnkd.in/ejnEwVe7 Best regards. Agricultural commodity trader, Oleg Shklovtsov.

Palm oil extends gains on demand hopes, weak Malaysian ringgit Malaysian palm oil futures extended gains on Friday due to the weakness of the Malaysian ringgit and expectations of improved demand after the prices of rival soft oils rallied more than palm oil this week. The benchmark palm oil contract FCPOc3 for August delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was up 21 ringgit, or 0.54%, at 3,915 ringgit ($829.98) a metric ton by mid-day break. “Until a few weeks ago, palm oil was losing market share due to its premium over soyoil and sunflower oil,” said a New Delhi-based trader. “It has started regaining market share now that it is available at a discount to rival oils.” Soyoil, sunflower oil and rapeseed oil prices jumped this week on production concerns, he said. U.S. soybean oil futures BOc2 were up 0.2% on Friday morning. Soybean farmers in Brazil’s southernmost state, where rain and flooding have disrupted field work for weeks, have now harvested 91% of their soy area, up from 85% last week, crop agency Emater said on Thursday. Malaysian ringgit depreciated significantly this week, which is also helping exporters to increase prices, said a Kuala Lumpur-basedtrader. “Exports would improve in coming weeks from Malaysia and Indonesia,” the trader said. The Malaysian ringgit MYR=, palm’s currency of trade, weakened 0.32% against the dollar. A weaker ringgit makes palm oil more attractive for foreign currency holders. Malaysian palm oil exports for May 1-20 fell between 8.3% and 9.6% from the month before, according to cargo surveyors.

📰 #Rising #oil prices support the prices of #vegetable oils 🤔 The intensification of Israel's military operation in the southern Gaza Strip city of Rafah and a clash between Egyptian and Israeli soldiers at a border post sent oil prices up 2.5% this week, supporting vegetable oil markets.   📈 July Brent oil futures on the ICE Futures exchange in London rose by 2.5% to $84.2/barrel in two sessions (+1.7% for the week, -3.6% for the month).   📈 In the Russian Federation, part of the refinery recovered after the UAV attacks, so oil processing in the first half of May increased compared to the corresponding period in April by 4% to 5.45 million barrels/day, Bloomberg reports.   💡 Markets are waiting for a meeting of OPEC+ members on June 2, at which they can agree to increase production volumes, which more and more countries are insisting on.   📈 July palm oil futures on Bursa yesterday rose immediately 2.3% to 3,960 ringgit/t or $844/t (+2.3% on the week) on the back of higher oil and soybean oil prices and slower increase in exports in May.   💡 According to surveyor Intertek Testing Services and inspection company AmSpec Agri Malaysia, Malaysia increased its palm oil exports from May 1-25 by 2.4-3.1% compared to the same period in April. At the same time, Indonesia exported 2.56 million tons of palm oil in March, which is 18% higher than in February.   📈 July #soybean oil futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose 1.2% to $1,000/t yesterday, but were down 0.7% for the week amid falling soybean and meal prices as harvesting in Argentina accelerated.   📈 On the Dalyan exchange, the most active contract for soybean oil rose by 1.66% yesterday, and for palm oil - by 1.99%.   📈 According to Trading Economics, the average price of sunflower oil delivered to buyers for the week increased by 1.7% to $881/t (+1.7% for the month) amid reduced supply from the Black Sea region and stronger demand from India.   🔎 In Ukraine, the export demand prices for sunflower oil in the Black Sea ports increased by $20-30/t to $840-860/t due to a shortage of offers. However, large oil stocks in the EU ahead of a seasonal increase in #canola oil supplies are reducing demand and prices for sunflower and soybean oil in Europe. 📻 Source: https://lnkd.in/ecFHqhex Best regards. Agricultural commodity trader, Oleg Shklovtsov.

📰 A sharp drop in #soybean #oil prices has increased pressure on other oils, but the premium for #sunflower oil will continue to rise 📉 December soybean oil futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell 5% in two sessions to $954/t (+1.9% on the month), losing a week's gains of the previous two weeks due to uncertainty over green energy programs after the arrival of the new Administration USA.   🤔 They were not supported even by a sharp decline in the forecast for the US soybean harvest, an increase in soybean processing in October to a record level, high rates of soybean exports and even a slight increase in oil prices.   📉 December palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia fell 3.8% to RM4,899/t on Monday and traded at RM4,924/t or $1,100/t on Tuesday and Wednesday (-1.3% for the week ) on expectations of an increase in demand for palm oil against the background of the escalation of the Russian Federation's war against Ukraine, which will reduce supplies sunflower oil.   🤔 According to the surveyors, Malaysia for November 1-20 reduced palm oil exports compared to the corresponding period in October by 1.4-5.3%, but traders expect further reductions in production.   📈 On the exchange in Dalian, the most active soybean oil contract rose by 0.64% yesterday, and palm oil - by 0.79%.   🔎 Sunflower oil prices at Ukrainian ports remained at $1140-1160/t this week amid limited supply, while meal prices fell another $5-6/t to $185-195/t.   💡 Purchase prices for sunflower last week reached a seasonal high and fell slightly, which reduced the volume of offers from producers. Therefore, against the background of the reduction of the sunflower harvest compared to the previous season from 15 to 10 million tons and the lack of cheap raw materials, processors will have to keep the prices of offers for oil at a high level.   💡 In the near term, the premium for sunflower oil compared to soybean and palm oil will increase due to supply shortages and the increase in EU rapeseed oil prices caused by the sharp increase in the price of canola. 📻 Source: GrainTrade / Ukrainian electronic grain exchange Best regards. Agricultural commodity trader, Oleg Shklovtsov.

📰 #Rapeseed prices support forecasts of a reduced crop in the EU and rising #oil prices 📈 June Brent crude oil futures rose 4% for the week to a 5.5-month high of $89/barrel amid Ukrainian drone attacks on an oil refinery in Tatarstan and an Israeli strike on an Iranian general in Syria. Such news leads to a speculative rise in oil prices, which supports quotations for vegetable oils used in the production of biodiesel.   ⚖ The agency Strategie Grains lowered its forecast for rapeseed production in the EU in 2024 from 18.3 to 18.1 million tons, which would be 10% less than last year's 19.9 million tons, due to a lower than expected harvest in France. To compensate for the reduction in production, the EU will increase imports of rapeseed from Ukraine and Australia in the 2024/25 FY.   📈 At the same time, the agency's experts left the forecast for sunflower production in the EU in 2024 at the level of 10.7 million tons (which will exceed the 2023 harvest by 10%), and soybeans at the level of 3.1 million tons (9% more than last year).   📈 August new-harvest canola futures on the MATIF exchange rose 1.5% yesterday to €452/t or $487/t (+8.7% on the month), while May futures rose 1.7% to 445, €75/t or $480/t (+6.8% m/m) as they remain under pressure from low soybean prices due to a bumper crop in South America.   📊 May canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange last week fell 2.4% to CAD 635/t, or $468/t, adding 6.5% for the month amid rising MATIF quotes. Canola prices are being supported by a lack of rainfall in some parts of Canada, with November new crop canola futures trading CAD20/t higher than May.   🔎 In #Ukraine, rapeseed prices for delivery to Black Sea ports rose to UAH 17,000/t, and in the western regions for EXW-elevator for rail deliveries to Germany - to UAH 15,500-16,000/t against the background of the increase in the interbank dollar exchange rate.   🤔 Polish "farmers" continue to block Ukraine's border with Poland, which keeps rapeseed prices in the EU at a high level, although rapeseed stocks in Ukraine are almost exhausted. 📻 Source: https://lnkd.in/evaCeXxk Best regards. Agricultural commodity trader, Oleg Shklovtsov.