Patrick Zoll’s Post

The BSW, a new German party that campaigned on ending Berlin's military support to #Ukraine, could soon govern as a junior coalition partner in several German states. What does that mean for German foreign policy? "There is nothing the government could not do to support Ukraine because of the BSW," Thorsten Benner told Tagesspiegel, adding that the current lack of consensus on fiscal policy among Germany's traffic light coalition is much more stifling. According to Thorsten, the best antidotes to the "BSW's siren songs" are: - A more nuanced debate on Germany's policy vis-à-vis #Israel - Confident investments in Germany's strength, combined with - A continued openness to diplomacy. ➡ Read more (in German): https://lnkd.in/dqFz79JR

As a persistent consumer of Greek (and Turkish) media, I cannot dispel the notion that the demonstrative harmony in Greek-Turkish relations over the past few months is showing signs of stress. The latest indication supporting this view comes from the remarks made by Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Güler, which are creating friction in the diplomatic climate. At its core, the enduring and increasingly complex disputes between Athens and Ankara continue to obstruct meaningful reconciliation—a topic I explore in detail in this analysis for the leading online portal on the Middle East zenith Magazin (in German). https://lnkd.in/dR3vrnkt  

The war for dominance in the political space of the Baltic is in full swing. In the event that one side begins to lose ground in the political battlefield, this confrontation will escalate into a hot phase, as war is the continuation of the politics that were conducted before military actions more https://lnkd.in/d89fjxE7 #BalticPoliticalDominanceWar #HotPhasePoliticalBattleBaltic #PoliticalTensionBalticRegion #BalticConflict #GeopoliticalRisksBalticRegion #BalticCountries #MilitaryActionsBalticRegion #GeopoliticalConflicts #PoliticalCrises https://lnkd.in/dQ7FJW5a

🔹A more active role for Turkey in #NATO, as demanded by the #Turkish government, would be appropriate in view of the #geopolitical challenges and would also offer the opportunity to make #Turkey more accountable. 🔹However, this is meeting resistance within the alliance. How can the defence alliance achieve greater unity? 🔹 One thing is clear: further alienation of the geostrategic important ally #Turkey must be prevented. This requires a solution-oriented agenda, a commitment to pragmatism, and constructive communication between #NATO countries and Turkey. 🔹 It seems sensible to integrate Turkey into the #transatlantic-European #security-#architecture. 🔹 To ensure that #Russia does not benefit from #European-Turkish arms cooperation, binding bilateral or #minilateral agreements in the run-up to armaments projects would be conceivable. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) https://lnkd.in/d2Yw3jmu

Interesting article and interview with former U.S. Rear Admiral Mike Studeman who warns of heightened tensions between #China and #Taiwan, suggesting that all signs of Chinese war preparation are visible. China’s actions—frequent military exercises, cyberattacks, and economic isolation—signal its readiness to enforce claims on Taiwan, which it views as essential to its national rejuvenation. Studeman suggests that China might delay full military action until after 2027, but this timeline could change if favorable conditions arise, such as weakened U.S. resolve or international disunity. Taiwan’s strategic location makes it critical to maintaining a balance in the Indo-Pacific; losing it could empower China to control key sea lanes, posing a threat to regional nations and shifting global power. To counter these risks, Studeman advocates for strong deterrence, improved U.S. military capabilities, and continued diplomatic engagement with China to prevent a miscalculation that could escalate into open conflict, which would destabilize global security. “Why is it so important to show China the limits of its power claims? Asia is likely to be the most important engine for the global economy in the 21st century. If China manages to hold the region hostage, it would be to the detriment of the rest of the world. That is no small feat.” https://lnkd.in/e5Eb3d4j

Pistorius in the Indo-Pacific: How Germany searches for its geopolitical role Germany's Minister of Defense, Boris Pistorius, is in the Indo-Pacific. He landed in Hawaii on Tuesday and will then continue on to South Korea and the Philippines. The aim of the trip is for Germany to demonstrate its presence in the strategically important region—also militarily. 👉 And so Pistorius' first stop may fit perfectly with the image of a defense minister: He is attending the Rimpac2024 military exercise. The snazzy pictures of German soldiers alongside US Marines should not obscure Germany's true role in the region. 👉 The focus is more on long-term and sustainable cooperation with regional partners and less on military presence. After all, Germany is more proficient in business, trade, research and civil society. 💎 Symbolically significant is also whether the two German ships will pass through the Taiwan Strait on their following voyage through the South China Sea. In December 2021, the frigate "Bayern" was on a similar mission. The warship did not pass through the Taiwan Strait at that time. It is unlikely that China's party and state leader, Xi Jinping, will be impressed by this. Nevertheless, China expert Angela Stanzel supported such a passage in an interview with Table.Briefings. "If we are going to show our presence in the Indo-Pacific and go to such great lengths, then it would be appropriate to approach it with a little self-confidence and make the journey through the Taiwan Strait," the expert from the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) says. What Germany is doing ta Rimpac24, how China assess its own presence voyages and much more, all at China.Table and Table.Briefings https://lnkd.in/espeA8xW #Indopacific #China #Pistorius #SouthKorea #Taiwan #Philippines #geopolitics #Rimpac24

We are happy to share a collective op-ed published today in one of the most influential Austrian newspapers and news websites - Die Presse! “As early as the 1990s, we realized that it was our most important task to bring our countries and people back to Europe where they have always belonged. Now we have become digitally advanced and green countries with global connectivity, a dynamic start-up environment, well-trained professionals and high defense investments.” – 3 Baltic ambassadors from 🇱🇹🇱🇻🇪🇪 reflecting on the 20 years membership in European Union and NATO. ⚖️ “Today we recognize that one of the reasons for Russia's current aggression in Ukraine is that Russia has never been held accountable for its Soviet crimes. A member of the UN Security Council is ruthlessly violating this system. It is a mistake to believe that the war against Ukraine is not the war against the whole free world. Anyone who commits war and attack crimes must be held accountable.” – shared emphasis on accountability for Russia's crimes. Read more➡️ https://lnkd.in/g5MNaGZF

Berlin- The Green Party, in this case Hofreiter, always hold unrealistic views. On the one hand, they actively advocate military support for Ukraine with defence equipment, which is in Germany's original interest. On the other hand, the Green politician Hofreiter wants to enable hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians in Germany to refuse military service. Germany should issue them with replacement documents. In fact, this misses the legal reality. Or is Hofreiter now campaigning for German soldiers to operate German weapons in Ukraine, while Ukrainian men fit for military service go on holiday on German shores and receive citizen's money? The destructiveness of so-called Green politics is not only evident in energy and infrastructure policy...

After my trip on board the frigate Baden-Wurttemberg from Jakarta to Singapore, I was able to speak to Vice Admiral Jan Christian Kaack, Germany’s chief of Navy. I asked him whether two German warships made any difference to the balance of power in the region. And why Germany was present in the Indo-Pacific. His answer: If you see the Chinese navy with 350 ships and contrast it with two German ships, then it is presumptuous to believe that we are making any difference to the balance of power. Nevertheless, I maintain that many stones also make a wall. We send an important signal to our partners in the Indo-Pacific with our presence here. I had many discussions with politicians, experts and military personnel in the region in the run-up to the deployment. And I heard again and again: “Please come and show that you are not indifferent to what is happening in this region.” Does the chief of navy think that Germany would also have a role to play in a conflict in the Indo-Pacific? Our motto is: Regionally rooted but globally committed. Regionally rooted means that our focus is national defense. This includes securing the sea routes from America across the North Atlantic to Germany. But recognizing that everything is connected to everything else, we must not lose sight of the global picture. Do I see an active role for the German navy in a contingency in the Indo-Pacific? I believe we would have to shoulder a greater responsibility if other partners withdraw. In other words, Germany would have to keep its back to the Americans in the North Atlantic so that they could focus on the Indo-Pacific. The mission was also a test for the frigate Baden-Wurttemberg, which was commissioned in 2019. This class of ships was developed in the 2000s and built from 2011. At the time, it was primarily intended for humanitarian rescue missions, stabilization missions and anti-piracy operations. A war between industrialized countries seemed unrealistic, attacks with drones and missiles less likely than today. Vice Admiral Kaack explains how the frigate is being adapted to the new threats in an interview that has just been published in the NZZ. (in German, paywalled) https://lnkd.in/g8Ds6_n5

https://lnkd.in/d_C2YfGE This will not be an easy time for the people of Ukraine. Fear for the future, while military aid from the USA is being increased once again. I wonder whether our either-or thinking is not a cause of many of the world's problems? Ukraine in NATO or not in NATO, in the Eurasian Economic Union or the EU? How about "AND"? Ukraine (as a neutral country) and Russia as part of the NATO Partnership for Peace! Ukraine concludes bilateral agreements with the Eurasian Economic Union AND the EU! The "AND" was one of the most central statements in the book "New World Manager", which I read in the late 1990s.