Perry Boyle 🇺🇸🇺🇦’s Post

Great piece from Michael Ferguson about “Partitioning #Ukraine isn’t a solution, it’s a bigger problem.” ( The Hill ) #russia #military #history #defense #nato #ukraine “Who, then, would guarantee the sovereignty of a new border in #Ukraine🇺🇦? Even if Zelensky decides to negotiate, he will almost certainly demand additional security guarantees from the West in exchange for relinquishing territory to Russia. This would place the White House and #NATO in a precarious position, considering the Kremlin’s initial aim of seizing Kyiv — an objective more likely delayed rather than abandoned. If Russia can acquire territory by crossing international borders and compelling negotiations, what kind of deterrent effect would new borders have on subsequent acquisitions that the old borders did not? Any peace agreement would hinge on this question, and it is one that Kyiv evidently cannot answer alone. If opponents of aid to Ukraine want to save money and prevent war, indulging Moscow’s imperialist designs will only undermine those goals. Foreign military aid to Ukraine avoids the escalatory tracks that led America into some of its costliest wars while also denying legitimacy to #Russia’s unprovoked assault. There are plenty of policy issues to debate this election year, including how to balance the burden of international security with domestic priorities, and even the appropriate ratio of economic-to-military aid going to Ukraine.”

My latest. “Much time has been lost. Many opportunities for preemption, deterrence and collective action have been squandered. It is past time for NATO to stop Russia. Why is swift, pathbreaking action imperative? For moral reasons.Will NATO really allow Russia’s genocidal campaign to continue on in the heart of Europe? Does “never again” mean anything? For existential reasons. Russia threatens not just Ukraine, but democracies across Europe and beyond. Are NATO countries willing to risk their security and way of life for a temporary reprieve? For peace and stability. Russia brings war, mayhem and trauma everywhere it goes. Would NATO gamble on an elusive compromise with Russia when Putin always uses purported “peace processes” to buy time and cover for more war and aggression? To save what is left of the post-World War II world order. The emboldened Russia-China-Iran axis seeks a new world order dominated by authoritarians. Will NATO miss the chance to send the axis an unambiguous signal and setback by acting decisively against Russia?” #NATO #Russia #Ukraine

Will war start with the U.S.??? Yesterday, the Kremlin warned if Western troops are sent to Ukraine, the move could lead to a direct conflict between NATO and Russia. The warning came in response to French President Emmanuel Macron, who indicated on Monday that Western soldiers could bolster Ukraine's defenses in the 2-year-old war. "Nothing should be excluded," the French leader said during a news conference in Paris about putting Western boots on the ground in Ukraine. "We will do anything we can to prevent Russia from winning this war." Kyiv's Western allies have not committed troops to the war. Doing so would constitute the crossing of a red line that's been stated by Russia as provocation for escalating the conflict. Speaking to the press on Tuesday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Western troops becoming involved in the war would result in the "inevitability" of a direct confrontation.  "In that case, it's not going to be about probability, but inevitability—that's how we assess it," Peskov said when asked about the probability of a direct conflict between NATO and Russia if Western troops are sent to Ukraine, according to the Kremlin-controlled outlet Tass. Peskov added NATO countries "should also assess" the consequences of taking such action. Kyiv's Western allies should "ask themselves whether this corresponds to their interests, and most importantly, to the interests of the citizens of their countries," he said, per Tass. What will happen for the United States (which is in NATO) is another question. More ahead... on SNN and here on LinkedIn. #russia #nato #war #ukrainerussiawar #usa #militarytransition

Modern times: I’m physically at the #Palace of #Romania, speaking with Ukrainian @Pryamyy channel and discussing President #Zelensky’s address to the @EuropeanCouncil and the Council of the European Union Let me highlight some key reflections as of today: ➡️ German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, commenting on President Zelensky’s "victory plan," emphasized that there are decisions he has made that "will not change." I believe it is about deep strikes or Taurus support. ➡️ At the same time Mark Rutte mentioned that #NATO will support Ukraine in such a way as to prevent Russia from achieving its goals in the war. The Alliance aims to give Kyiv the ability to negotiate peace "from a position of strength" and at a time of Ukraine's choosing. No mentioning of the "invitation" to join #NATO as it is sensitive to Germany as well as other allies. ➡️ The Council of Ukraine-NATO (at the level of defense ministers) is meeting today. I expect discussions on how President Zelensky’s urgent request for an invitation to #NATO will be addressed by Ukraine’s partners. My question is there how NATO allies are going to implement deterrence and at the same time let Ukraine solely win? Unfortunately, these things cannot be simultaneously be achieved Centre for Geopolitics The British Academy Professional Government Association of Ukraine #Ukraine #Zelensky #EuropeanCouncil #NATO #Romania #UkraineNATO

Yesterday, Newsweek reported the Kremlin warned if Western troops are sent to Ukraine, the move could lead to a direct conflict between NATO and Russia. The warning came in response to French President Emmanuel Macron, who indicated on Monday that Western soldiers could bolster Ukraine's defenses in the 2-year-old war. "Nothing should be excluded," the French leader said during a news conference in Paris about putting Western boots on the ground in Ukraine. "We will do anything we can to prevent Russia from winning this war." Kyiv's Western allies have not committed troops to the war. Doing so would constitute the crossing of a red line that's been stated by Russia as provocation for escalating the conflict. Speaking to the press on Tuesday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Western troops becoming involved in the war would result in the "inevitability" of a direct confrontation.  "In that case, it's not going to be about probability, but inevitability—that's how we assess it," Peskov said when asked about the probability of a direct conflict between NATO and Russia if Western troops are sent to Ukraine, according to the Kremlin-controlled outlet Tass. Peskov added NATO countries "should also assess" the consequences of taking such action. Kyiv's Western allies should "ask themselves whether this corresponds to their interests, and most importantly, to the interests of the citizens of their countries," he said, per Tass. What will happen for the United States (which is in NATO) is another question. More ahead... on SNN and here on LinkedIn. #russia #nato #war #ukrainerussiawar #usa #militarytransition

With President-elect Trump apparently committed to ending war in the Ukraine, it is worth revisiting some of the arguments that will undoubtedly resurface. Russia’s remarkably relaxed reaction to the NATO accession of Finland and Sweden stands in stark contrast to the hysteria over Ukraine’s far less substantial ties to the military alliance. In the months leading up to Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin and other Kremlin leaders told the world that the escalating crisis was due to years of provocative NATO expansion, while warning that deepening ties between the Alliance and Ukraine represented a red line. In reality, however, Ukraine in early 2022 was not even remotely close to joining NATO. Far from pursuing Ukraine, the Alliance had repeatedly sidestepped appeals from Kyiv for a Membership Action Plan, refusing to offer even a clear signal regarding future accession. On the eve of Russia’s invasion, the most optimistic forecasts indicated that Ukraine’s dream of joining NATO was still decades away. It is hard to see any military logic behind the dramatically different Russian reactions to NATO’s Nordic enlargement and the Alliance’s involvement in Ukraine. After all, while a theoretical future NATO presence inside Ukraine could pose a range of major headaches for military planners in Moscow, the recent accession of Finland has already doubled the length of Russia’s shared border with the Alliance overnight. Swedish membership will arguably be even more consequential for Russia, transforming the Baltic Sea into a NATO lake. If Russia is so apparently unconcerned by these very real military challenges, why was Putin prepared to launch the biggest European war since World War II over the far more distant prospect of Ukrainian NATO membership? It is clear from Putin’s own actions that he understands perfectly well NATO will never attack Russia.

Ukraine still does not meet requirements for NATO membership — US Department of State Meanwhile, Julianne Smith acknowledged that "NATO Allies are working closely with the Ukrainians to help them make continued progress" WASHINGTON DC, June 12/ Ukraine still does not comply with the requirements and criteria to become a NATO membership candidate, US Permanent Representative to NATO Julianne Smith said during a briefing, commenting on US President Joe Biden’s interview with Time on the perspectives of relations between Ukraine and NATO. "I do believe what the President was referencing in that particular interview, though, was the fact that we, the United States, believe that the Ukrainians still have some work to do on meeting the criteria and implementing the reforms that are required for NATO membership," she underscored. Meanwhile, she acknowledged that "NATO Allies are working closely with the Ukrainians, either bilaterally or through the NATO Alliance, to help them make continued progress." In September, 2022, Ukraine filed an application for accession to NATO via an accelerated procedure. The alliance has repeatedly underscored that Ukraine’s accession is impossible while the country is in the state of conflict. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that Kiev seeks to pressure NATO member states on the issue of invitation to the alliance. He warned that Ukraine’s potential accession will have extremely negative consequences for European security and will require a firm response from Russia. #business #finance #financialservices

New Post: Stop Putin Now or Prepare for NATO-Russia War - https://lnkd.in/gWiQtJHp SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — With a mere 1.2 million citizens, Estonia is among NATO’s smallest members, but its contributions to Ukraine have led the pack by a wide margin. Estonia’s military aid to Ukraine has reached 3.6 percent of GDP; by that metric, Denmark is the second most generous donor, at 2.4 percent; the U.S., by comparison, has given the equivalent of 0.32 percent of GDP, according to the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker. There’s a reason for Estonia’s generosity; it was invaded by the Russian-led Soviet Union twice in the past century and ultimately won its freedom from Moscow in 1991. And given its small size and border with Russia, Estonia is likely to be among the first victims if the Kremlin widens its war on Europe beyond Ukraine.  Margus Tsahkna, the country’s 47-year-old foreign minister (and former defense minister), has gained a reputation for speaking plainly about Russian President Vladimir Putin and his clearly-stated aim to rebuild the Soviet Union, or the Russian Empire of Tsar Peter the Great. Putin’s ambitions, Tsahkna says, are the reason why Russia must be defeated in Ukraine, before the war spirals out of control and moves to other parts of Europe. “The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief in terms of the number of articles published by formers.” —Sept. 2018, Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 62 Access all of The Cipher Brief’s national security-focused expert insight by becoming a Cipher Brief Subscriber+ Member. Subscriber+ #Stop #Putin #Prepare #NATORussia #War

19 July 2024: Key takeaways from this evening's Ukraine Update by the great team at the Institute for the Study of War: - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated the importance of developing an international consensus for pursuing peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. - Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban appears to be augmenting several Russian information operations amid continued efforts to present himself as a possible future mediator between Russia and Ukraine. - New United Kingdom (UK) Defense Secretary John Healey stated on July 19 that Ukraine can use UK-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia, despite previous reports that the UK had not permitted Ukraine to use UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles to strike military targets within Russia. - The Kremlin is reportedly concerned about the long-term social and political implications of Russian veterans returning from the war in Ukraine. - The Russian government is reportedly considering stricter measures to directly censor critical voices on Russian social media. - Russian authorities continue to propose stricter migration legislation as Russia's ultranationalists continue to espouse xenophobic rhetoric and complain about the Russian government's perceived lenient migration policy. - Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk, Toretsk, and Avdiivka. - Disorganization continues to plague Russian efforts to integrate personnel who served in Russian proxy forces in occupied Ukraine into the Russian military bureaucracy. #ukrainewar #linkedintopvoices