The Arab Gulf Countries Have Reinvented Themselves, Securing a Prominent Position in the Global Power Structure

The diplomatic significance of the Arab Gulf nations in the calculations of the United States and Europe has expanded significantly, especially in the context of their approach to Tehran leading to a drastic transformation of the Iran nuclear standoff. Not too long ago, the nuclear negotiations in Vienna involving the United States, China, Russia, Britain, France, and the participation of the European Union, deliberately excluded the Arab Gulf countries. The rationale behind that exclusion was that these negotiations had focused solely on the nuclear issue and did not include regional matters. Today, the current US administration is turning to Saudi Arabia for assistance with the Iranian nuclear problem, which has lost its former status as a top Western priority due to the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Europe has come to acknowledge its mistakes and capitulation to Tehran's demands, refusing to incorporate the regional dimension into the nuclear talks. Europe is now seeking the support of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries in resolving conflicts within Europe and have come to accept the Gulf countries’ judgment and wisdom regarding the Iranian nuclear issue. The recent visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Paris underlines Europe's recognition of the need for a Saudi involvement that extends beyond Middle Eastern affairs and encompasses even European matters. And the visit follows the US acknowledgment of the pivotal role played by Saudi leadership, both regionally and globally. 

Both the Americans and Russians are preoccupied by their presidential elections, despite the differences in their electoral experiences, conditions, and rules. The electoral battle has already commenced in the United States, with far-reaching ramifications expected for China, Russia, Europe, the Middle East, and beyond. Even amidst the multitude of candidates already competing for the Republican nomination, it appears that the key players in this electoral contest will once again likely be Democratic President Joe Biden and former Republican President Donald Trump. 

Vladimir Putin, the Russian President, stands as the sole candidate for the Russian presidency, irrespective of who will be permitted to enter the race later on. By the arrival of spring 2024, unless the Ukrainian war drastically alters the course of history, the presidential contest between the United States and Russia will shape a significant portion of the world's future. 

The state of US-Russian relations appears rather bleak, with one exception: this week's joint announcement by Washington and Moscow, declaring an agreement to continue exchanging notifications on major strategic forces exercises and commitment to weapon restrictions outlined in the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START-3). And there is an ongoing exchange of notifications concerning the launch of intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. 

These assurances hold significant importance amidst the turmoil surrounding their relations and developments linked to the Ukrainian war. They come with the confirmation this week from Maria Zakharova, the spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, emphasizing that Russia's use of nuclear weapons would only occur under exceptional and defensive circumstances. According to Zakharova, Russia's nuclear deterrence policy is exclusively defensive in nature, where the hypothetical utilization of nuclear weapons is strictly limited to extraordinary defensive scenarios. 

Zakharova made it clear that Moscow is fully committed to the principle of inadmissibility of nuclear war, firmly stating, "There can be no winners in such a conflict, and it must never be unleashed." 

Simultaneously, she did not rule out the possibility of reversing Russia's decision to suspend the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START-3). However, she emphasized that this reversal would require Washington to demonstrate political will and actively work towards easing tensions, de-escalation, and creating conditions for the full resumption of the treaty's functionality. In other words, these are reassurances yes, but they come with certain conditions attached. 

President Putin's speech at the St. Petersburg Forum could be seen as an electoral program aligned with his presidential ambitions, as it encapsulated his long-term vision for the Ukrainian war. The conflict has endured for a considerable duration, leaving Western leaders to ponder whether Putin still maintains the belief that he can dismantle Ukraine as a sovereign nation. But they are also pondering whether he has reached a definitive stance on the boundaries that the Russian army could deem acceptable within Ukrainian territory. 

This decision or perception holds significant importance on the American policy-making table, not only due to its pivotal role in military developments but also because of its impact in the context of presidential election campaigns. In the United States, Putin will be an issue present in the battle for the US presidency, while in Russia, Biden and Trump will serve as crucial factors in the calculations for the Russian presidency. 

According to a senior expert studying US-Russian relations, there is a form of synchronization between the American and Russian presidential elections. This convergence of the presidential elections will provide the world with insight into whether any opportunity lies ahead for enhancing relations between Russia and the United States, the leader of the Western camp. It will also shed light on whether the relationship has entered an inescapable path of confrontation, even in the event of a Trump victory. 

Why is this important now? Well, for one, preparations are already underway for various scenarios and outcomes of the war. And why is this issue not exclusively bilateral? The reason is that the world has undergone a complete transformation since the onset of the Ukrainian war. There is now a demand for non-traditional actors who were previously regarded as marginal but have now assumed roles of utmost significance. Among these key players, Saudi Arabia stands out prominently, along with other Gulf countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. They have become significant to both the United States and Europe, not solely and typically due to their oil and gas resources, but because the Gulf's diplomatic influence holds substantial weight in American, Chinese, Russian, and European political considerations. 

Everyone is bracing themselves for the worst case-scenarios across military, economic, and financial spheres, owing to the deteriorating relations between Russia and Western countries. There is a conspicuous absence of a safety belt. Consequently, there arises a pressing need to rally countries possessing the requisite capabilities, influence, and clout to reshape this polarization. 

During the Cold War, the Non-Aligned Movement played a crucial role as a bloc positioned between the United States and the Soviet Union, influencing their polarization strategies. However, in today's world, the Non-Aligned Movement has lost its significance as many of its member states were, in fact, aligned with one of the two poles. 

Countries that have a strong economy, scientific and technological development, and institutional advancement, such as India, Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey are becoming powerhouses. Saudi Arabia has entered that club, along with the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. Egypt will remain an important Arab country, but it belongs to the era of the Non-Aligned Movement rather than the current equation and the polarizing calculations of Washington, Moscow, Beijing, and European capitals. 

Prince Mohammed bin Salman's visit to Paris went beyond discussing bilateral issues; Ukraine was high up on the agenda, whereas a few years ago, the conversation would have been confined to Middle Eastern matters. France requested Saudi assistance in ending the Ukrainian war, most likely on behalf of European countries. The agenda of the Saudi Crown Prince also extended beyond political issues. Accompanied by a high-level delegation, his visit focused on Riyadh's bid to host Expo 2030 and the Summit for a New Global Financing Pact, scheduled for June 22nd and 23rd in Paris. 

This reflects the new approach adopted by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Arab states, as they coordinate their roles to assert their position and influence on the global stage in terms of economy, development, vision, institutions, and diplomacy. 

Moreover, the pivotal role played by the Gulf Cooperation Council countries in American and European relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran is not a trivial matter. 

Oman, the capital of quiet diplomacy behind the scenes, has become essential for both the United States and Iran. It has worked to facilitate negotiations to revive the Iranian nuclear agreement between Tehran and the global powers, this time with the participation of Arab Gulf countries, led by Saudi Arabia. 

Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al-Busaidi recently revealed that the United States and Iran are approaching the final stages of an agreement regarding the release of American detainees in Tehran. According to news reports, this is part of the talks to release frozen Iranian assets worth billions of dollars in South Korean banks due to US sanctions, with the funds intended for ‘humanitarian purposes’. The United Arab Emirates and Qatar also play a role in the interactions between the United States and Iran, alongside Saudi Arabia, aiming to persuade Tehran not to exceed the threshold of uranium enrichment sufficient for civilian purposes. 

Russia has been banished from the P5+1 equation, the nations that negotiated with Iran in Vienna, according to the perspective of Western countries. But China remains of great importance in the efforts to contain Iranian enrichment below the weapons-grade threshold. In practice, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries have replaced Russia at the negotiating table with Iran, by deploying the language of their new diplomacy. 

The Gulf countries have reinvented themselves and established their presence on the global stage, garnering the attention of both Western and Eastern nations. In truth, this marks the dawn of a new reality.