Cognition – How quantum computing, micro-cultures and the TikTok ban will shape comms in 2025
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And now on to this issue...
As we mark the end of one year, we asked contributors across the company to name a trend they thought would drive discussion in the new one. We are heading into the quarter-century mark, and we expect to see new and interesting developments in areas as diverse as social media, the climate transition and of course, artificial intelligence. What trends do you think will dominate the conversation next year? Let us know after reading through this issue. Don't forget to subscribe to see these first in your feed each month.
Have a great new year.
New technology has to ensure Earth can handle a fully AI-powered communications workflow
I quite like my new ‘AI-powered’ working life. It’s certainly saving me a lot of time – from helping me to analyse data and craft messaging to targeting the right audiences on behalf of my clients.
And you can bet I used it to help with some of the more technical subjects of this blog post. So far, so good. The benefits of AI are well documented, but what about the big, power-hungry elephant in the data centre?
The carbon emissions from the computation associated with AI are huge. One query on ChatGPT is the equivalent of driving a car 17 meters. Doesn’t sound like a lot in isolation, but considering the near billion queries a day that the service is currently handling – it’s like adding thousands of cars to our roads each year.
Our insatiable appetite for an easier (and increasingly more digitally-powered) life means that traditional silicon-based chips, the workhorses of modern computing, struggle to keep up with the energy-guzzling needs of the latest and greatest AI supercomputers.
Moore’s law is, finally, dying
For decades, we’ve relied on Intel co-founder Gordon Moore’s idea that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles every two years, leading to exponential growth in computing power. This principle has fuelled the digital revolution, enabling everything from smartphones to the internet.
But with the frenetic development pace of AI, we’re reaching the limits of silicon-based electronics. Transistors are now approaching the size of individual atoms, and we can’t go any smaller without running into the limits of what physics will allow (at least for how our current computer systems are built and programmed – I’ll leave the quantum conversation for a future post).
A lightbulb moment
So, we need more and more compute power to facilitate our AI revolution. Still, Isaac Newton’s pesky limitations will result in stalled progress and a concerning increase in (even) more carbon emissions.
Photonic chips might help. By using photons, or particles of light, to transmit and process data, rather than the slower electrons of our current silicon-based chips, a whole host of benefits can be realised. Because light is fast, photons enable higher bandwidth and lower latency – very helpful for increasingly complex AI workloads. They also generate far less heat, significantly reducing energy consumption in data centres, which spend a large proportion of energy on cooling servers. Better for the environment and our future AI overlords.
So, what does it all mean for us?
Photonic chips are not just a theoretical concept. They’re already finding their way into the real world, from optical neural networks that mimic the human brain to AI systems that can analyse vast datasets in near real-time.
So, linking back to our world for a second, what does this potential future look like for marketing and comms pros? Assuming photonic chips can facilitate the continued pace of AI development – the sky(net)’s the limit. Potent tools that can inspect customer sentiment across huge swathes of the internet in the blink of an eye, personalising campaigns to a plethora of different audiences at the click of a button, and even predict the future – all while minimising the amount of carbon put into our atmosphere.
Ever the eternal optimist – that sounds like a pretty bright, or should I say light, future to me.
Tom Hunt is a director in London and Cognito’s Head of Insights & Analytics
Wrestling with the consequences of a generation without social media
A first social media account has long been a modern rite of passage on the road to adulthood. But what if this is changing?
Several generations that grew up with social media have reached adulthood, and the long-term impacts have been documented in academics and psychology; we’re starting to see a significant countermovement emerge.
Seven years ago one study found that 56% of children had a social media account, and the average age of first enrollment was 12.6. This is before the legally allowable age of 13 on Meta-owned Instagram and Facebook. Some children are sneaking in – sometimes through the knowing eyes of parents – or creating accounts on more ‘kid-friendly’ place such as Roblox or a semi-public discord server.
Is this new? I’ve seen people on TikTok or Reddit describe a longing for a generation free from the performative nature of life online. A proof point is a post I saw recently on TikTok showing an English field heavy with dew on a rare sunny morning. “It’s 2005 and nothing is happening online,” it says, as birds chirp in the distance. Half-remembered nostalgia for a barely gone-by age.
I regret to inform you that things were very much happening online two decades ago. My university got Facebook during a chaotic (all of the poking!) day in the spring of 2004. Before that there was MySpace, where eight lucky friends were ranked and ordered in a box. And we can go even further back to the America Online and MSN Messenger accounts, with their short profiles and away messages that occupied modems after school in the waning years of the last century.
All of this is to say – being chronically online isn’t anything particularly novel, which makes the recent momentum behind a significant countermovement all the more interesting.
Australia will bar all residents under the age of 16 from creating new accounts and having a presence on social media by the end of next year. There are strict limits on access for school-aged children in China’s one billion-person market – and these recently have been tightened even further. The European Union is also exploring ways to limit access to minors, and a bill impacting children under 14 is winding through the courts in Florida.
Particularly keen teens will find a way around these restrictions. But their effect – combined with a growing movement of people willingly stepping away from documenting and sharing their lives online, presents a genuine challenge for people in our industry. We’ve had access to pipelines of analytics and data, with promises that new technology will allow for even greater targeting and personalization.
I have long assumed that pretty much everyone has a home base online and some kind of a digital paper trail. Most will at least sometimes post somewhere occasionally – whether it’s sharing a link from a friend on Facebook or participating in a promotion on Instagram. They may be reluctant participants, perhaps driven by some sort of need for professional change, but they are there.
But increasingly, that’s not the case as more people actively try to minimize or erase their online footprint. Social networks are starting to worry about this, reacting by filling feeds with content from friends and pushing people towards individual and social selling.
And yet, I suspect next year will be one where “digital ghosts” become more common. We, as marketers, need to understand the challenge.
AI content companies claim we can use someone’s published online history to show them a piece of writing that is precisely tailored to them, pumped out of a large language model in seconds, even if they aren’t actively posting. While I’ve seen some interesting experiments in this area, none are really relevant for corporate communications.
When people are active online, we can communicate with them better. Therefore, if people have less of an online presence, either through choice or government mandate or the deprecation of cookies, it impacts our ability to communicate well with them
I suppose the pat answer is a retreat to quality. If we don’t know anything about our potential target, all we can do is try to rely on our expertise and wisdom. Maybe it’s not exactly aligned, but hopefully, it will be relevant.
Another route is to simply ask people. We know what this form takes – endless surveys every time we use a service. (Here’s a funny post about the perfileration of the Net Promoter Score.) These are mainly an end-run around stricter data protection and marketing laws. But they can provide some context, if they are rare and well people engage with your content to begin with.
Marketers might have to return to relying on other metrics, ones that are tied to an individual reader or social media count. Overall web page views, how long people spend on a site, or download a particular file. It’s not the same as a cookie tied to a profile that follows someone all across the internet, but it might have to do.
While I have no plans to log my terminally online self off anytime soon, I look forward to these new generations of people who aren’t bathed in social media joining the workplace. I hope that extra time is spent on creative projects, building relationships and truly original ideas. And eventually they find a way to share them with me.
Jon Schubin runs Cognito’s internal marketing function and is a director focused on content
The rise and rise of the micro-culture
Do you smash that like button? Do you leave a comment and let them know what you think? Do you subscribe and set alerts for your favorites? What’s your “micro-culture”? You know you have one.
Maybe it’s high-brow like rare books or classical music? Or functional like gardening or home improvement? Or cosmetics? Or finance? Or politics? Or you love Star Wars? Or you hate Star Wars? If I tell you mine, will you tell me yours?
I love (LOVE) YouTube channels that obsessively discuss, unbox, and review the latest and greatest DVD releases. Beautiful, well-packaged, limited edition, uncompressed, and stocked with special features DVD releases!
Much to my wife’s chagrin – these channels – this “micro-culture” of dedicated film nerds has significantly influenced my consumer behavior (while creating a variety of shelf space issues). And I suspect I’m not alone.In fact I know I’m not alone! YouTube is ground zero for the “micro-culture” – and taken in aggregate, the single most important mass media platform in the world.
YouTube is the most influential media platform in the world and its reach is growing.
Here are some facts about YouTube that every time I share with people, I’m invariably met with head-shaking disbelief:
YouTube increased ad revenues by $1b from Q3 ‘23 to Q3 ‘24. YouTube’s ad revenues earned nearly as much as all of Google’s services, subscriptions and devices combined. But YouTube also drove much of Google’s growth in subscribers – with 14% year over year revenue increases.
Advertisers are chasing audience. Creators with reach are flocking to the biggest possible platform. And they’re doing so in exponential fashion.
Is this happening anywhere else in media? I think you’d hear about it.
Why is YouTube so powerful? Why are these relatively low-cost, independent productions so lustily drinking the milkshake of traditional media?
It’s obvious.
4K DVD channels are a small but clear example of the appeal.
Obsessive channel hosts who genuinely care about their subject-matter or their “micro-culture” will attract and generate enthusiasts. Their economic incentives and cost structures are completely aligned with their audience. And in-turn they are creating a more detailed, informed and authentic media product.
So why is YouTube and the “micro-culture” underrated by media professionals? Much of the success of the “micro-culture” flies in the face of what we have been taught is “good, earned media”, and runs contrary to what’s traditionally taught in media coaching.
In fact – successful influence through the micro-culture is almost 180 degrees separated from the precepts of “good PR”.
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Across the “micro-culture” of YouTube channels, Substacks and podcasts, these three rules apply nearly across the board:
YouTube is generating tremendous engagement precisely because it runs contrary to traditional “earned media”! Compare this recent mainstream interview with Willem Dafoe promoting Nosferatu, to his appearance “in the Criterion Closet”
Which is more compelling? One is more refined, well-messaged and scripted in its response, and the other has a rambling and heartfelt discussion of his love of Wes Anderson, Mizoguchi, Rossellini – the films he loves and the films he’s appeared in.
The Criterion Closet video has over 1.2m views! His mainstream media interview? A lot less.
The Criterion Closet is ground-zero for the cinephile /“physical media” micro-culture. As the longest purveyor of specialty cinema (think Goddard, Bergman, Fellini, Ozu, Kurosawa, Scorsese, Hitchcock –the greats!) on physical media, Criterion presents an IYKYK air of delicious pretense and authority on films. Inviting actors, directors, and other creatives into their stockroom closet to pick, discuss and genuflect before their favorite films was a stroke of genius.
Ok, ok, I get it – this is MY thing.
But these videos have legs! Winona Ryder’s trip to the closet has 610k views and video game creator Hideo Kojima’s has 1.1 million! And even if you’re not a cinephile – anyone can tell the honest emotional attachments shared. Not a talking point to be found.
Most importantly – Criterion has helped foster a sense of community among people who love films. At the 2024 NY Film Festival, people lined up for 8 hours for a chance to shop in a mobile replica of the Criterion Closet and buy DVDs.
In the micro-culture, community is king!
My “physical media” journey started with Criterion Closet videos (specifically this one from Agent Cooper himself Kyle MacLachlan) but I got hooked because YouTube’s algorithm turned me onto the channels of Robert Meyer Burnett, MidLevelMedia, Cereal at Midnight, 4K Kings, as well as support from the Ringer’s cinema focused podcast “The Big Picture”
These channels regularly refer to one another, cover granular news in the world of physical media, and have both the depth of knowledge and economic incentives to engage their audience at length – both on tape and in live-streams.
In short – they can nerd out at incredible levels.
This flies in the face of all we’ve been told about “snackable content” and diminished attention spans. Enthusiasts are flocking to creators and channels who can go deep along with their communities and guide them to “the next thing” in their own “micro-culture”.
And while the strength of TikTok and short-form video is unquestioned, for people who are seeking to go deep on a topic, or make a key decision, or even elect a particular candidate – long form video has proven particularly influential.
Take it from me!
My home library is now stocked with incredible transfers and “collectors editions” of some of the Hollywood’s greatest films, cult classics and most intense foreign masterpieces of all time. I’ve introduced my daughter to “To Catch a Thief” and “Rear Window” and my son to “Cloak and Dagger” and “The Last Starfighter” all in perfect 4K and uncompressed audio. If you want to watch Joseph Von Sternberg’s 1927 silent classic “Underworld” (which invented gangster movies), I’m your man.
Behold the power to influence consumer behavior
And while this is my own beloved “micro-culture” – YouTube in aggregate, is having a massive real-world impact on consumer behavior and business response.
The ability of the “micro-culture” to influence critical decision-making is in its infancy – but given YouTube’s success, there are some clear expectations we can draw as more and more audience flows to the platform:
Audiences are making up their mind in real time. In many ways, the ground has already shifted. The question is how do we respond? Do you have favorite channels? Favorite creators? A shelf full of tchotchkes you’ve bought inspired by unboxing videos? What’s your “micro-culture”?
Doug Hesney is a senior vice president in New York. This essay originally appeared on his Substack, Cognitive Missives
How news will be impacted by TikTok leaving America
The timing is a bit strange.
As it stands at the time of publication, TikTok will be forced to shut down in America if it is not sold by 19 January, the day before the inauguration of President Donald Trump.
Trump has had a change of heart and has now said he supports TikTok’s operation. Now the ban was passed by Congress and signed into law by Joe Biden, which means it won’t be as easy as an executive order. The Supreme Court might also nullify the ban.
Basically, it’s not clear what will happen. Let’s set that aside for a moment and reflect on how the change will reverberate beyond America’s borders and back here to ByteDance’s home region.
ByteDance is the Chinese parent company of both TikTok and Douyin, a roughly analogous application that runs and operates inside Mainland China. While both apps feature short-form video powerfully by and endless, algorithm-powered For You pages, what is on there is quite different.
Simply put, very little information from Douyin spreads over to TikTok and vice versa. Finding out what was on the app was such a novelty that when “Chinese Street Fashion” video edits went viral three years ago, it was considered very, very noticeable.
This is the impact of Douyin and TikTok operating in their own walled gardens. And I suspect TikTok’s walled garden will get a bit higher once material from America is removed.
The United States accounts for more than 16% of TikTok usage, more than three times the total of any other single nation. That is hundreds of millions of visitors with the average user spending more than 30 minutes each month on the app.
The ban would instantly remove those users. It would also throw out thousands of creators, who would stop producing content or move to rivals such as Instagram Reels or YouTube Shorts.
For corporate creators, it will mean that your geographic reach will become even more dependent on a platform. Now there’s a chance that content that appears and is created in one place can drive usage elsewhere. My feed is full of content from far beyond by Singapore home base.
Now, those opportunities are shrinking. Marketing teams will need to decide whether it’s worth it to manage and support additional platforms, or they will start to narrow the topics of their outreach.
This may see slightly academic to people working in a B2B environment focused on finance and technology. Are people really making decisions based on their TikTok feed? I would argue that the answer is more complicated than it may seem. Consumer video platforms help spread news articles from traditional new sources. They create and push how the mainstream media covers events (see the hysteria around the alleged assassin of the health executive in the United States).
Without that presence in our media ecosystem, we will probably see a greater shift towards the region. Homegrown apps and the greater Chinese language information ecosystem through places such as WeChat will be even more important.
For further insights, I would suggest we look further at India, which has already banned TikTok for the last two years. Instagram Reels is very popular there, tracking ahead of some locally grown services. It means that the Instagram algorithm, which aggressively deprioritizes political media and controversial content, now has far more sway over the country. We’ll have to see if there’s a similar impact here.
Even if there’s an eleventh-hour reversal, I suspect that the de-coupling between media information environments will continue. It means that people who want to have an international perspective will need to be more intentional in their media consumption habits. And also might open up opportunities for smart brands to do some information arbitrage.
Jon Schubin runs Cognito’s internal marketing and is a director focused on content
One critical report shows us how to combat greenwashing once and for all
In climate, it’s easy to get lost in the nuance. Will a particular action help a country meet their carbon emission targets? Too often, the answer is – it depends.
That’s why I see the publication of recommendations from the Transition Finance Market Review – a major UK government-sponsored review of transition finance – on 17th October as a critical tipping point. I believe it is no less than than key to finally making progress on banishing the pox of greenwashing from the financial industry.
Over 133 pages, Vanessa Havard-Williams and her team lay out the required amount of funding for the green transition and how to unlock that finance. They seek to define transition finance – something many have struggled to do coherently; and they build on existing country-level and regional frameworks such as SFDR, the EU Taxonomy and UK’s SDR to build something more universal.
The right policies, pathways, and signals for investment through collaboration between government, investors, business, and civil society – it’s all there.
And while there’s certainly a Britian-centered nature to the report given who commissioned it, it is ultimately a powerful global reference point. This is especially true for the sector-wide transition of hard-to-abate sectors, where the transition has lagged behind.
Dr. Rhian-Mari Thomas of the Green Finance Institute said, “[the Review] highlights the importance of establishing a well-defined framework for transition finance, which helps investors and regulators alike understand what counts as green and what counts as transitional.”
The review is not only a policy paper but a communications blueprint. When a company volunteers progress in its climate action, it exposes itself to the court of public opinion, to greenwashing risk. Whether the action can be deemed greenwashing is strictly in the eyes of the reviewer, which leads to circular, frequently unproductive conversations.
The Review gives organisations operating in the transition finance – from banks to investors, to those operating in the real economy – a Rosetta Stone that allows them to talk in ways that attract finance and build confidence in their approaches.
How should sustainability and transition labels work for financial products? How much disclosure and independent validation is needed? What is adequate regulatory engagement? It’s all in this report in black and white.
When someone asks why a particular action is being followed, it’s now much easier to show how it aligns with the guidance laid out by the Review. This has the chance to meaningfully change the debate. We increasingly have heard that companies who are scaling back communications efforts or even cancelling carbon reduction programmes as they are afraid they won’t pass the sometimes-forensic approach to deal with scrutiny.
What we want to see next year is a virtuous cycle. New and existing market entrants will have more positive experiences communicating plans, making them more likely to continue down this path. And the good vibes will provide an overall brand halo that pushes more people into (or back into) the market.
This matters because transition finance is not just a buzzword – it’s a necessity. It is literally the finance that will transition the hardest-to-transition sectors and industries. Like coal, heavy manufacturing, mining and cement.
There’s consequences to the current inaction. BloombergNEF estimates that, globally, annual investment into the energy transition must rise to $6.7tn per year to reach global net zero emissions by 2050. We’re nowhere near this level and investor indecision is a major contributing factor.
But like many aspects of the climate transition, it can’t be a one-way street. State intervention is key. We hope that with a piece of work like the Review in place, it provides governments with foundations they can follow, to be bold in their signals.
While greenwashing risk isn’t going away in 2025, we hope that with reference points like the Review, companies and governments all have something to follow that ultimately encourages credibility and integrity in their actions.
Much work has been done in the field of integrity. To get firms to act and talk about climate action, not in a lip-service kind of way, but in a deep, tangible and transformational way. The TFMR does this in the field of transition finance. Now, it’s up to companies, financiers and governments to use it.
This article is adapted from “Five days that shaped the climate debate in 2024”, a new report from the Cognito Sustainability team. Charlie Morrow, a director based in London, is the team’s leader.