Ecuador: Correaism starts favored in an unprecedented early election
Metodi Tzanov
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Ecuadorians will go to the polls on Aug.20 to vote in the first round of the general elections in an unprecedented context, after President Guillermo Lasso dissolved the National Assembly in May, calling for early elections. The situation occurred through a constitutional mechanism called the "death-cross," which allows the executive branch to dissolve Congress in cases of severe political crises and internal turmoil. Lasso's decision, the first of its kind in Ecuadorian history, came at a moment when Congress was about to vote on his impeachment in a second attempt to oust him from office due to alleged embezzlement. The strained relationship between Lasso and the opposition-led Assembly had been evident since the beginning of his term, resulting in a deadlock that impeded the approval of key reforms.
In this situation, the National Electoral Council (CNE) has accelerated the election process, to be held after 90 days. The campaign period, usually spanning three months, has been shortened to only one month. It started July 13. This raised some concerns as citizens have had limited time to familiarize themselves with the candidate's proposals.
Eight presidential pairs registered with the CNE; among them are some familiar faces from the 2021 elections. The elected president and vice-president will hold office until May 2025 (the end of the current term). Yet, this will serve to provide a glimpse into the 2025 general elections.
These elections take place in a challenging environment as the country grapples with a wave of violence, an economic crisis, protests from indigenous communities, and the looming threat of an imminent severe weather phenomenon. Luisa Gonzalez, the correaist Citizen Revolution's candidate, is the favorite to win. To win in the first round, an absolute majority or 40% with a 10pps margin over the second candidate is needed. If required, a second round will be held on Oct 15. The only presidential debate is scheduled for Aug 13.
THE CANDIDATES
Luisa González/Andrés Arauz (Citizen Revolution Movement)
Luisa Gonzalez, a lawyer, and member of the National Assembly until dissolution, stands out as the sole female candidate in the presidential race. She represents the left-wing Citizen Revolution movement, led by former President Rafael Correa (2007-2017), and stands as the favorite to win the election. Gonzalez has a lengthy career in the public sector, particularly during Correa's presidency, where she held positions in the Tourism Ministry and Production Ministry. Despite this, she is not well known among the population.
Her campaign promises include a commitment to augment expenditures on welfare programs and public infrastructure, mirroring the approach taken by former President Correa during his tenure. On security, she proposes enhancing collaboration between the Ministries, judicial courts and Armed Forces. To tackle the high debt, González suggests auditing loans, renegotiating terms, and paying as deemed appropriate.
Jan Topic/Diana Jácome (Alliance "Country without fear" - PSC, PSP, CD)
An economist, military trained, and former sniper in the French Army's Foreign Legion, Jan Topic commits to an "iron fist" to end the country's violence problems. Although he has no political experience, Topic has the backing of one of Ecuador's largest conservative groups, the Social Christian Party. He could have the potential to make it to the second round with this "tough" discourse due to the wave of violence in the country. He has openly said he is a fan of Bukele, El Salvador's president, characterized by his controversial security policies.
On the economic side, Topic defines himself as right-wing. He advocates opening markets, promoting trade agreements, and applying economic austerity. In the area of debt restructuring, Topic will seek to negotiate with international organizations to improve Ecuador's bargaining power and seek alternatives to address the fiscal deficit. He also proposes measures to improve the country's competitiveness and encourage foreign investment.
Yaku Pérez /Nory Pinela (Alliance "Of course we can" UP, PS, Democracy Yes)
Politician and human rights activist Pérez will run for president for a second time. In 2021, he came in third place with 19.4% of the votes, behind Correaist Andrés Arauz. Perez, a leftist, promises a reorganization of the economy, security, and society. Yet, in these elections, Perez has moderated parts of his discourse, although he strongly opposes extractive activities and advocates environmental conservation.
Otto Sonneholzner/Erika Paredes (Alliance "Let's do it" SUMA, Avanza)
Former vice president in Lenin Moreno's term Sonneholzner is a familiar figure to voters. Sonneholzners is the candidate from the SUMA and Avanza parties. Crucially, he receives the support of the Democratic Left, a historical party in Ecuador. During his 18-month term as vice president, he headed the Emergency Operations Committee during the pandemic. On the economic front, Sonneholzner proposes to protect and strengthen dollarization, promote the reactivation of private investment, and promote employment and efficiency in tax management. He also promises many social programs in education, health, and housing. He is promoting debt-for-development swaps, improving oil sector management, and fighting corruption.
Fernando Villavicencio/Andrea González(Build Movement)
A journalist by profession, he was a member of the Assembly for the "Honesty Alliance" in 2021. However, he is now running as a candidate under the "Build Movement". His primary focus and commitment lie in combatting corruption and crime. He is a well-known figure in Ecuador as one of the most severe critics of Rafael Correa. Villavicencio maintained ties with Lasso, actively working in the Assembly to block any attempts to impeach him.
Xavier Hervas/Luz Marina Vega (RETO movement)
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An agro-industrial entrepreneur, he participated in the 2021 elections under the Democratic Left party. Despite having no prior political experience, Hervas managed to secure 15.7% of the vote. Hervas outlines as priorities security, emergency infrastructure projects, and healthcare. He stands against the Yasuní consultation, arguing that oil resources are crucial for the government's needs.
Daniel Noboa/Veronica Abad (Alliance: People, Equality and Democracy)
Former Assembly member and son of Álvaro Noboa, a prominent businessman who has participated several times in the presidential race, seeks to boost the country's GDP and transform the productive sector. He identifies himself as liberal, stressing his belief in the economic progress and the free market. His chances of winning appear to be limited.
Bolívar Armijos/Linda Romero (Friend Movement)
Lawyer, he had a previous close association with Correa, which eventually broke. His chances of winning are minimal.
THE RETURN TO POWER OF "CORREAISM"?
Following the February regional elections, the Citizen Revolution party emerged as the dominant political force in the country. Amidst social unrest, a crisis of governance, and a surge in unprecedented violence, the left-wing party secured victory in the two most crucial mayoralties, breaking the 31-year-long hegemony of the Social Christian Party in the key economic hub of Guayaquil. Gonzalez, the candidate of this party, currently leads in the few official polls conducted.
Leading this movement from his exile in Belgium since 2017, Rafael Correa, who serves as president from 2007 to 2017, continues to wield significant influence in the nation. He has openly expressed his desire to return to Ecuador and eliminate term limits, enabling him to return to power if his judicial problems are resolved. In 2020, he was sentenced in absentia to eight years in prison for corruption charges, accused of accepting USD 8mn. In addition, the court banned Correa from politics for 25 years. Correa denies the accusations and called the case an example of political persecution by ex-ally Moreno, elected in 2017. When discussing the possibilities for Correa's return to Ecuador, it depends on extraordinary appeals before the National and Constitutional Courts.
All in all, the potential resurgence of the Citizen Revolution in the government would create a more conducive environment for Rafael Correa's return and a left turn for the country again.
LACK OF RELIABLE POLLS
The nature of these elections has led to limited surveys, with only two approved pollsters by the CNE having conducted surveys. This has led to uncertainty regarding the true voting intentions and makes it difficult to analyze the electoral landscape. Yet, based on the available data, Luisa González is currently leading with an average of 28.8%, followed by Otto Sonnenholzner with an average of 12.1%. Yaku Perez holds the third position with 10.7% support. Notably, the "vote blank" option is at 12.6%, while the number of undecided voters is at 13.7%. It is anticipated that these figures may shift slightly after the presidential debate scheduled to be held in August.
A NEW CONGRESS AND AN OIL REFERENDUM
In the upcoming elections, citizens will also vote to elect a new National Assembly, composed of 137 members. The previous Assembly, elected in 2021, had a left-leaning majority, and there is an expectation that this trend will continue, given that most former members are running for re-election. If Luisa González emerges victorious, it could potentially lead to improved governability; however, there might be concerns as well if her proposals are perceived as too radical.
In parallel, a referendum will be conducted to address the issue of halting oil exploitation in the Amazonian region of Yasuní. The referendum question is: "Do you agree with the Ecuadorian government keeping the Yasuní crude oil, known as Block 43, indefinitely in the subsoil?" If the proposal is accepted, the facilities in the ITT field would need to be dismantled within a year. This referendum outcome could have significant implications for the country's oil industry and fiscal accounts.
A LIKELY RUNOFF COULD UNIFY OPPOSITION TO CORREA
González runs the risk of repeating what happened in 2021, when other parties united against Correa's candidate in the runoff, handing him a narrow defeat. Indeed, it is expected that González prevails in the first run without obtaining the necessary votes to win directly. In this context, the other candidates will compete for the anti-Correa sentiment.
A PREVIEW FOR 2025?
The new administration will face a huge challenge governing for only a year and a half amidst an institutional crisis, soaring debt, ongoing economic and public security crisis, and an upcoming weather phenomenon that is expected to impact the economy massively. In our opinion, the winner, regardless of who it is, will play a key role in shaping the political trajectory leading up to the 2025 elections.