Romania: Mustering parliamentary majority after general election may be rough challenge

• Mainstream parties don't get along, nationalists - highly unlikely to reach 50%
• We think mainstream parties' coalition is 60% probable, government crisis is avoided with Lasconi as president
• Presidential election results discourage PSD voters; USR, AUR are advantaged
• PSD likely to win general election, but with lower support than its voter base
• PNL probably to regain voters with new reformist leadership, alliance with USR is more likely
• Nationalist parties to remain in opposition, we see their maximum potential at 30%

Mustering a parliamentary majority after the general election on Dec 1 could be very difficult to achieve when looking at recent developments on the local political scene. The three main traditional parties, the PSD, PNL and USR are in disagreement and no alliance was announced. We think that an alliance between PNL and USR is almost certain, but they are unlikely to reach 50%, even with support from the UDMR and minorities. Only a grand coalition of all three could secure a solid majority in parliament, and we see this scenario having more than 60% probability of becoming reality. The probability may be even higher if the PSD's result in elections is better than it expects, having more power in negotiations, probably to ask for the PM position.

The two extremist-nationalist parties that have a big chance to make it to the next parliament, the AUR and SOS Romania, are highly unlikely to grab more than one third of seats, in our view. A mixed coalition between extremists and traditional parties is almost impossible. Finally, Romania's parliament will also have 4% of seats secured for the national minorities and UDMR (Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania) MPs, which traditionally manages to get 5% of seats. Minorities and the UDMR almost always backed any government, leaving potential alliances the effort to muser at least 41%.

The shock of the presidential election's first round on Nov 24 makes up take in consideration surprises as well. It is worth mentioning that a new, unknown and a very small party could enter parliament. Some media speculations, that were not confirmed, link the Party of Youth (POT) to the presidential election winner, the extremist-nationalist Calin Georgescu. The POT withdrew its presidential candidate and asked supporters to vote for Georgescu in the first round, this being the only confirmed link between them. Georgescu denied any ties with any political party, but if these speculations continue, increasing this small party's name recognition among Georgescu's voters, we think it might make it past the electoral threshold.

Consequently, a solid majority in the next parliament can be secured, in our view, only with a PSD-PNL-USR alliance. The nationalist parties will be a stronger force in the new parliament, but still in opposition. With USR's Lasconi as president, we see tough negotiations with the PSD. The next government will not have an easy job in ruling, but securing majority support in the parliament is possible. On the other hand, with Calin Georgescu as president, the country will almost certainly enter a government crisis because we don't see the mainstream parties supporting an extremist PM proposal.

Impact of presidential election results on general elections

The presidential election results shook up the domestic political scene. It showed a visible deterioration of the mainstream parties, the PSD and the PNL and a rise of the anti-system sentiment that boosted extremist-nationalist Calin Georgescu in first place and increased USR's support. Georgescu, barely known, absent from debates and traditional media, won with nearly 23%, riding an anti-system wave of angered voters, taking advantage of various fears and people's disappointment with politicians, through a controversial and allegedly illegal campaign on TikTok. This almost entirely virtual presence wiped off the mainstream parties, and we think that was an opportunity for traditional politicians to reform and reset.

Where will Georgescu's votes go in the general election?

We think Georgescu attracted votes from all sides, but mostly from among those that gave up participating in ballots, in frustration and anger with politicians. Even though his messages are profoundly nationalist and often extremist and quite bizarre, we believe it is wrong to assume that his supporters will largely back the AUR or SOS Romania. Every party has its angered voters, and Georgescu was the opportunity to punish traditional parties or a hope for a radical change of the system. Therefore, we think that a big part of his supporters will not vote in the general election. Several media inquiries among Georgescu's voters revealed that many realized that they were misinformed or manipulated, and we think parties will regain some of those. At the same time, the AUR and SOS Romania asked their electorate to vote for Georgescu. This looks good for Georgescu's supporters, motivating them to vote for those parties in the general election, but we don't think there will be many.

Social Democrat Party (PSD) (likely result - 25%)

We think the PSD probably didn't understand right what happened at the presidential election. It's true that its leader and current PM Marcel Ciolacu resigned, but the rest of the leadership team, including resented figures, remained. In addition, their arrogant attitude towards the media, their refusal to comment on the election result or to show intent to regain voter's trust, doesn't look good for their disappointed voters. The PSD traditionally has around 30% core electorate, disciplined and easy to manipulate. Yet, Ciolacu was voted by less than 20% in the presidential election, showing that the PSD now has its own angered voters it needs to regain. We believe that Ciolacu's result mirrors the party's real support, but we should add the help from regional leaders (PSD has more than 33% of mayors), who are renowned for their ability to bring people to vote, often suspected of manipulation and even fraud. These practices could add at least 5%, but unlikely to bring back the party to its traditional support level.

The National Liberal Party (PNL) (likely result - 15%)

The PNL seems to have acknowledged the electorate message in the presidential election. The Liberals replaced the entire leadership with a reformist team which recently announced bold measures. That attitude very probably reactivated part of its disappointed voters. A more friendly stance towards the opposition USR was confirmed when the new leader announced unconditional support for USR leader Elena Lasconi in the second round of presidential election. PNL's former leader Nicolae Ciuca got less than 9% in the presidential election, but we think that the party could score more, probably around 15%, over announced changes and with help from regional leaders (more than 27% of regional leaders of PNL will mobilise voters). The PNL's traditional electoral base is around 25%, but the popularity deterioration of mainstream parties affected the Liberals as well.

The Union for Saving Romania (USR) (likely result - 10-15%)

The USR is generally perceived as a reformist, anti-system party, which propelled it fast to about 15% in the previous elections. Its popularity froze at that level for a while, the party being too rigid and arrogant to address other voter categories. The USR lost a lot of support since the previous elections, disappointing voters, as it started to look more like a traditional, mainstream party. In fact, we believe that the USR has the highest number of angered supporters that at one point decided to no longer participate in ballots. What happened in the presidential election might very possible bring the USR a major advantage, as fear of extremism would reactivate many of its lost voters. The leadership change after the local election in June is also beneficial for the party, as proven by its leader's result in the presidential election. Elena Lasconi made it to the run-off, even if she is present in the public's attention as USR leader only for four months. She could push the USR up to about 10% or even to its old support level, of 15%, in our view, from a collapse to 5-6% obtained in the local election.

Nationalist Alliance for Uniting Romanians (AUR) and SOS Romania (likely result - 25-30% combined)

We take them together because we see them as the main opposition force to the next government in the parliament. Yet, they don't get along so good, so we see an alliance between the two as very difficult to make. The AUR won less than 10% of regional governments in local election, but we think its core electorate at about 15%. Furthermore, that is the most likely result it will obtain in the general election, or even higher if more Georgescu voters choose to vote for the AUR. The other nationalist party, more extremist and vocal, that will very probably make it to the parliament, is SOS Romania. This one is smaller and very niched, comprising loyal supporters of the noisy politician Diana Sosoaca (former AUR member), sitting on around 5% electoral base. The Constitutional Court excluded Sosoaca from the presidential race with a hard-to-explain and controversial decision that transformed her into a system victim. So, we think SOS Romania might get more than 5%, but not very close to 10%.

Unreliability of polls

We didn't put much consideration into polls when making these assumptions because they proved unreliable this year. No major pollster made independent polls, almost all were ordered by the opposition, the ruling parties or media that we consider biased. They showed different results, even those with similar methodologies, or divergent trends. Above all, none predicted, not even by far, the results of the presidential election's first round. Therefore, we suspect them of being used in manipulative purposes. Nonetheless, we agree with polls on one thing: that the PSD is very likely to sit on leading position in the Dec 1 general elections.

Yet, the main issue is that pollsters do not include social media in their coverage, neither expatriate voters. These could lead to an upset, and are largely behind the surprising result of Georgescu in the presidential election. There is also a widespread lack of trust in pollsters, which reduces further the quality of polling, beyond political bias and poor methodologies.