Senegal: Outcome of high-stake 17 November snap legislative election remains uncertain

• Vote widely seen as face-off between Ousmane Sonko and Macky Sall
• Sonko's Pastef party has opted for the risky strategy of going for it alone
• Sonko's former enemies and allies have been partly successful in forming opposition alliance
• Poll comes at a critical juncture for the country's fiscal health and investor confidence
• Wide-scale unrest is unlikely but the atmosphere remains charged

As 7.3mn registered voters across 46 regions prepare to cast their ballots, political leaders in Senegal have been campaigning to secure a foothold in the Assembly in a high stake early legislative election, set to take place on 17 November.

Background and context

Senegal's National Assembly, the Assemblée Nationale, comprises 165 seats, with MPs serving five-year terms. Elections are held through a mixed system that combines majoritarian and proportional representation, operating independently of one another as follows:

• Majoritarian vote: 112 seats are filled through a simple majority departmental party list vote where the party that secures the most votes in each constituency wins all of its seats. 46 of the departments are within the country, with allocation ranging from 1 to 7 seats each for a total of 97 seats. Each of the 8 diaspora departments has between 1 and 3 seats for a total of 15 seats.
• Proportional vote: 53 seats are filled proportionally from national party lists, with each party required to submit in two lists - a list of incumbents, and a list of deputies. Names are drawn from the latter in the event that incumbent(s) can no longer serve due to resignation, illness, or other reasons, replacements are drawn from the deputy list.

The upcoming election follows the dissolution of the National Assembly, announced in September by president Faye, who won the March 2024 presidential election with over 54% of the vote. The parliament had been elected in 2022 and was largely controlled by the BBY coalition associated with former President Macky Sall. It had held an absolute majority since 2012, before its dominance slipped in 2022 with the rise of Sonko-led YAW coalition. The dissolution comes as the government seeks stable legislative majority to advance its reform agenda.

Major Actors

With both BBY and YAW defunct, the election is widely seen as a political face-off between their two leaders: former President Macky Sall and Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko. Notwithstanding, this year's race includes 41 electoral lists, sizably more than the 8 lists back in 2022, due to the suspension of the sponsorship requirement, which previously limited the number of competing parties. The major among these include:

Pastef party (PM Ousmane Sonko)

Ousmane Sonko, whose strong stance as a reformist and a vocal critic of the political establishment earned him significant backing, ensuring decisive win for his proxy Faye in the March presidential election, is representing his Pastef (Patriotes Africains du Sénégal pour le Travail, l'Éthique et la Fraternité) party. Pastef has opted to avoid alliances, instead running independently in the hope to build on their recent electoral success.

Pastef presents itself as a party advocating for the interests of the Senegalese people through a balance of individual freedoms and respect for public order. It acknowledges the critical role of the state in driving economic and social development, maintaining peace and security, and enhancing Senegal's global presence. With a vision for systemic change, Pastef promises a break from ineffective policies of the past, aiming instead for a genuine alternative that emphasizes patriotism, hard work, ethics, and fraternity as its foundational pillars towards a more equitable and self-sufficient Senegal. Since its foundation, the party has attracted significant support from youth and reform-minded voters.

Following the dissolution of the Parliament, PM Sonko unveiled an ambitious economic and social program dubbed "Sénégal 2050", which has become the party's campaign slogan aimed at ensuring adequate legislative support for the project. The program aims to fundamentally transform the nation and break the cycle of underdevelopment by setting three key goals for the coming years: tripling the per capita GDP, achieving annual growth rates of 7 to 8%, and halving the national poverty rate. The plan proposes a comprehensive reform of the country's systems, focusing on tackling corruption, leveraging natural resources, reindustrializing the economy, and improving public services, including universal access to water and electricity.

Takku Wallu Sénégal coalition (ex-president Macky Sall)

Macky Sall, after briefly stepping back from politics following his two terms as president, has decided to return to the national political scene, leading a reconfigured coalition. Formerly head of the Benno Bokk Yakaar (BBY) coalition, Sall has now dissolved this long-standing alliance, paving the way for a new liberal coalition, Takku Wallu Sénégal. This alliance unites his party, the Alliance for the Republic (APR), with the Democratic Party of Senegal (PDS) led by his predecessor Abdoulaye Wade, and Rewmi, led by veteran politician Idrissa Seck, in a bid to revive and consolidate the liberal bloc. The newly-formed coalition, with Macky Sall on top of the national candidate list, is positioning itself as a strong alternative to Sonko's Pastef party.

Takku Wallu Sénégal aims to counter the reformist and allegedly anti-constitutional stance of Ousmane Sonko, presenting itself as a bastion of stability and continuity. Although the coalition has yet to publish a detailed program, it is expected to build on the foundations of Sall's Plan Sénégal Émergent (PSE), emphasizing policies that have previously fostered economic growth and development. Key proposals include enhancing the business environment through reforms aimed at attracting investment, promoting digital innovation, and ensuring economic inclusivity.

Beyond economic pledges, the coalition seeks to contrast itself from what what it characterizes as Sonko's calls for anarchy and disruption, portraying a vision of stability, peace and unity. By focusing on social cohesion and inclusivity, the coalition seeks to highlight its experience and dedication to comprehensive national development, framing Sall's return as a necessary remedy to the allegations of corruption, mismanagement, and misreporting leveled against him by Pastef, which he dismisses as politically motivated.

Jàmm ak Njariñ coalition (ex-PM Amadou Ba)

Former Prime Minister Amadou Ba, who left BBY to start his own party, La Nouvelle Responsabilité (LNR), has formed Jàmm ak Njariñ ("Peace and Prosperity" in Wolof) alongside former BBY members such as the Alliance of Forces of Progress (AFP) and the Socialist Party (PS), representing a sizable faction of Senegal's left.

Amadou Ba's new party and coalition pledge a commitment to addressing the pressing needs of the Senegalese people while fostering unity and stability in a politically fragmented environment. By focusing on the principles of accountability and transparency, Ba emphasizes a break from the past while building upon the achievements of previous administrations. He pledges to engage all stakeholders in shaping policies that promote economic growth, social equity, and sustainable development, positioning himself as a stabilizing force in the evolving political landscape, striving to offer a sincere and constructive alternative.

Sàmm Sa Kàddu coalition (Dakar mayor Barthélémy Dias and ex-mayor Khalifa Sall)

A fourth political force has emerged under the leadership of Dakar's mayor, Barthélémy Dias, and former mayor Khalifa Sall, who are running with the Sàmm Sa Kàddu coalition. Both leaders are former allies of Ousmane Sonko. The alliance, comprised of smaller parties and independents, also seeks to disrupt the binary dominance of Takku Wallu Sénégal and Pastef in the Assembly. However, with limited past electoral success and seemingly limited space for smaller political parties, their impact remains uncertain.

Pastef's risky strategy and the anti-Pastef alliance

As said earlier, Ousmane Sonko's party, founded just a decade ago and now in power, prepares to contest the November 17 legislative elections without support from its past allies. This choice is bold and undoubtedly risky. In the last legislative election, the Yewwi Askan Wi (YAW) coalition, led by Pastef, won 56 seats with support from a wider alliance arrangement with the PDS-led Wallu coalition. Pastef itself is said to command just 23 of the 56 YAW seats whereas it needs at least 83MPs to secure a majority in the 165-member Assembly.

In contrast to Pastef's decision for a sole run, the three opposition coalitions have tried to re-introduce the strategy engineered and used by YAW and Wallu in 2022, each running individual national list while aligning on single departmental lists. According to local news reports, a wide ranging deal has been elusive and in some instances resulted in deepening party rifts. Yet, partial success has been achieved in some key regions, like the capital Dakar, with unified departmental lists potentially becoming a challenge for Pastef. Furthermore, negotiations have been ongoing, and more departmental lists may be withdrawn ahead of the poll date.

With important former allies, including PDS, now against it, support for Pastef is likely also somewhat eroded due the difficult socio-economic context exacerbated by heavy flooding witnessed in recent months. The expectations among Senegalese following the presidential election had been high whereas key measures to address pressing issues like the youth unemployment and the irregular migration have yet to be implemented. Pastef has attributed the delay to resistance from allies of Macky Sall, whom they accuse of obstructing government initiatives, and has urged Senegalese to vote en masse in its favour, so that the legislative obstacles can be overcome.

Indeed, historically, voters in Senegal tend to grant the presidential party a legislative majority to enable the execution of its platform. Pastef will likely also continue benefiting from the strong anti-system sentiment that has been bolstering its popularity in recent years. Many Senegalese voters remain drawn to its platform, which seems to challenge entrenched political norms, speaking to widespread frustration over government accountability. The return of a crowded field with multiple competing lists could as well serve in its favor, diluting opposition votes, and potentially giving it an advantage.

High Stakes Vote

The early election marks the first political reshuffling since the new administration took office, potentially charting the way forward. It will be a significant test for the ruling party, keen to secure an absolute majority in parliament to effectively push through its political agenda and fulfill the reform promises made during the presidential campaign.

Meanwhile, the opposition is focused on preventing Pastef from achieving a parliamentary majority, seeking instead a coalition government that would limit Pastef's ability to pass legislation unilaterally. For several opposition parties, which saw disappointing results in the last presidential election, securing a place in this election is also essential towards continuing presence in Senegal's political arena.

The snap election comes at a critical juncture for Senegal's fiscal health and investor confidence. The recently completed fiscal audit has revealed that the former administration underreported national debt by an estimated 10% of GDP, indicating a much higher deficit than previously disclosed. This revelation has prompted a freeze in disbursements from the IMF under Senegal's existing USD 1.5bn ECF/EFF program, approved in June 2023, with Senegal now seeking a new IMF agreement. Given this higher fiscal imbalance, the government faces considerable pressure to pursue fiscal reforms and reduce debt.

Key fiscal adjustments will likely be necessary, as the country's deficit is projected to reach 7.5% of GDP or more this year, significantly exceeding the initial target of 3.9%. To address this gap, the government may be forced to limit public investment, reduce tax exemptions and curb energy subsidies. Should President Faye's administration secure a legislative majority in the upcoming election, his government could move forward more decisively on this challenging fiscal path, which includes tackling high levels of hidden debt and controlling public spending. On the other hand, a cohabitation scenario would leave the country in its current state: a fragmented parliament where Pastef would struggle to gather support among both longstanding opponents and former allies now turned adversaries.

Risk of unrest

While large-scale unrest seems unlikely, with tensions still simmering after the political upheaval of early 2024, the atmosphere surrounding these elections remains charged. President Faye has appealed for responsible rhetoric to maintain peace throughout the campaign period, yet the first days have already seen several isolated incidents, hinting the situation remains precarious.