El Niño / La Niña Response - September Update

We are now in a neutral phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which some have dubbed "La Nada", in contrast to La Niña and El Niño. The current period is characterized by unpredictability, exacerbated by record high ocean temperatures. Recent weeks have been marked by flooding in West Africa, Sudan and South Sudan, as well as heavy monsoon rains and floods in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar and Pakistan.

Meanwhile, the drought caused by El Niño continues to have a profound impact across southern Africa, with forecasts warning of historic levels of acute hunger in the coming months.

As discussions are underway to agree on a new international climate finance goal, the priorities set up for COP29 focus on delivering much-needed climate finance, “taking into account the needs and priorities of developing country parties.”

La Niña 2024

In its September update, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed a 60% chance of a transition to La Niña, the cooling phase of ENSO phenomenon, by winter in the Northern Hemisphere, although some uncertainty remains. This episode takes place in the context of a rapidly warming planet, and its effects are unlikely to offset the upward trend in global temperatures. Here is what we know about past La Niña episodes:

• 1998-2000: A strong La Niña episode caused a historic drought in East Africa and floods in Southeast Asia.

• 2010-2012: A strong and prolonged La Niña episode caused severe flooding in Australia and South America, affecting 4 million people in Colombia.
• 2020-2023: This unusual “triple-dip” La Niña had significant impacts. It led to a historic drought in East Africa, South America (with wildfires in Brazil and Argentina) and in Afghanistan, as well as being a major driver of the Pakistan floods in 2022. It also caused drought in Southern China, the United States, flooding in eastern Australia and an active hurricane and typhoon season.

Regional climate projections are consistent with past La Niña episodes. In Asia, humanitarians have started preparing for its impacts, such as drought in Afghanistan. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC) has warned of below-average rainfall and drought in the Horn of Africa, calling for increased preparedness. On the other hand, experts in Southern Africa predict normal to above-average rainfall for the coming autumn.

In the Western Hemisphere, forecasts still predict an above-average hurricane season, due to La Niña and other climate factors. In the Caribbean, preparedness efforts are underway, including the pre-positioning of life-saving supplies, while the response to the devastating Hurricane Beryl is still ongoing. In Latin America, La Niña could prolong existing dry conditions and worsen the situation, with wildfires raging in Bolivia, Brazil and Ecuador. FAO also just launched its Anticipatory Action and Response Plan for La Niña, requiring US$ 318 million to assist over 10 million people in 39 countries at highest risk in Africa, Asia and the Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean.

Southern Africa drought

The impacts of El Niño remain deeply felt across southern Africa. According to the latest Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) alert, humanitarian needs are set to increase by 50% compared to last year, surpassing those recorded during the 2016/17 El Niño episode, which was the strongest in recent history.

Food stocks and market supplies are already at low levels and food prices have soared. Zambia and Zimbabwe face the prospect of prolonged power cuts as water levels in the Kariba Dam continue to fall. In Malawi, more than 5.7 million people are expected to face crisis levels of hunger through March 2025, up from 4.1 million, while in Namibia, acute food insecurity has increased from 38% to 45%. According to UNICEF, about 1.1 million children are suffering from severe acute malnutrition in El Niño-affected countries.

Underfunded response efforts

The coordinated humanitarian appeals, supporting Government-led efforts, are targeting 14.5 million people with urgent assistance totalling US$ 1.2 billion. The Regional Anticipatory Action Working Group reported that partners, including FAO, WFP, CERF, and the Red Cross, reached more than 2 million people in seven countries and distributed more than $30 million before the worst impacts of the drought. The Central Emergency Response Fund also disbursed nearly $30 million for southern Africa, while the African Risk Capacity provided over US$52 million to Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe in insurance payouts. Much more is needed, however, as most humanitarian appeals remain less than 20% funded.

Beyond immediate requirements, there is an urgent need to invest in climate resilience and adaptation, as Southern African countries, which are severely affected by climate change, continue to receive a small share of climate finance.

Continued advocacy

Assistant Secretary-General Reena Ghelani recently visited Namibia, Zimbabwe, Eritrea and Lesotho to discuss climate adaptation efforts with Governments and meet with communities on the frontlines of the climate crisis.

In Zimbabwe, a joint mission with WFP Assistant Executive Director Valerie Guarnieri resulted in a call to action to scale up humanitarian response in the face of a historic drought. Shortly after the ASG’s mission to Namibia, US$3 million was released from the Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) to scale up the drought response. The mission to Eritrea focused on climate adaptation and climate finance efforts. Finally, the recent mission to Lesotho, conducted with OCHA’s Head of Regional Office, Andrea Noyes, ended on a note of hope with the allocation of $2 million from the CERF to support emergency food assistance and the scaling up of resilience projects.

Women in the climate crisis

An epidemic of gender-based violence

There is growing evidence on the link between increased gender-based violence and the climate crisis, as compiled in this report by the Global Protection Cluster. According to a recent UNFPA study, rising global temperatures are linked to increased intimate partner violence, whether as a direct result of heatwaves or because of forced displacement, water scarcity or agricultural failure caused by climate disasters. In UNFPA's worst-case scenario of a 4°C rise, the number of people experiencing intimate partner violence in Africa could almost triple by 2060.

Similar trends can be seen during floods. An analysis conducted by CARE in Burundi following the 2023 El Niño floods found that women and girls were among the most vulnerable to the effects of flooding, with 26% of them afraid to go to the market or other public places for fear of being sexually abused.

More broadly, gender inequality has far-reaching economic consequences: the annual cost of gender-based violence is estimated at 2 to 3.5% of GDP.

While there have been increasing efforts to mainstream gender into climate policy and to promote gender transformative climate action, much remains to be done to integrate gender equality and gender-based violence prevention into disaster preparedness, climate adaptation and resilience programming.

Access the full newsletter here.