Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our Global Intelligence Team.
Expect updates on emerging risks, geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, etc. We’ll notify you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.
What We’re Watching
Emergency Managers Prepping for Monday’s Solar Eclipse and Same-Day Storms: Anticipation builds as North America prepares for a total solar eclipse on Monday—a phenomenon that won’t be repeated in the continental United States until August of 2044. While this will be a chance for many people to check an item off their bucket list, those near the path of totality should keep a few things in mind:
Several cities along the path have declared local states of emergency ahead of what is expected to be a massive influx of tourists. For instance, the mayor of Niagara Falls suspects that the eclipse may be the biggest event in the city's history. Upwards of one million people may visit the area. Increased highway and airport congestion, cell service demand, lodging, and other necessities may result in logistical challenges.
Early indications from forecast model guidance are pessimistic regarding cloud cover across portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Mexico. Despite this, experts emphasize that observing the event safely within the path of totality, even with some cloud cover, provides a much better experience than viewing a partial eclipse under clear skies. Fortunately, clearer conditions are expected over the eastern United States and Canada.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed Dallas-Fort Worth, Wichita Falls (TX), Shreveport (LA), and Ardmore (OK) under an elevated risk of severe thunderstorms on Monday. While most severe weather will hold off until the late afternoon or evening, those traveling through the region after the eclipse should remain weather aware.
What a total solar eclipse looks like moments before totality. Photo: Reuters
Recent Hurricane Seasons Have Been Bad – 2024 Projections Are More Concerning: In the past 30 years, residents in hurricane-prone areas along the Gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic coasts have experienced frequent active seasons. Since 1995, the Atlantic hurricane region has remained in an active cycle, surpassing long-term averages for named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. With less than two months until the next season, compelling evidence suggests that we could face a record-breaking season for hurricane activity.
On Thursday, Colorado State University (CSU) researchers released their first seasonal hurricane forecast for 2024. CSU is widely recognized as a leader in seasonal hurricane predictions. They predict 25 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. Such forecast numbers are the highest the team has ever produced this early before a season.
Two main factors are driving the hyperactive forecast: The anticipated formation of La Niña by summer and record-breaking warm water temperatures in the Atlantic. El Niño conditions are quickly fading in the Pacific, and a high level of confidence in an impending La Niña event usually leads to more favorable wind conditions for Atlantic hurricanes.
Additionally, ocean temperatures within the main hurricane development region of the Atlantic are remarkably over three months ahead of schedule and the warmest they’ve ever been this time of year. Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on June 1, with a historical peak in September.
Record-Setting Windstorm Season Rolls on in Northwest Europe: Damaging winds and locally heavy rain will cause widespread travel chaos across Ireland and western portions of the United Kingdom late Friday night through Saturday.
The countries' two federal weather authorities, the U.K. Met Office and Met Éireann, have issued widespread wind, rain, and high-elevation snow warnings.
Forecast models indicate a high potential for widespread gusts over 50-60 mph, locally higher near the coast. Scattered power outages, downed debris, highway closures, ferry cancellations, and significant flight disruptions are probable.
Since late 2015, northwest European countries have been naming large-scale windstorms that are perceived to be a significant threat to people and property. More recently, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and The Netherlands have accepted a list of names going into each season. The 2023-2024 season is tied for the busiest on record, with Kathleen becoming the 11th named storm.
The Union Hall fishing fleet in Ireland is moored at Keelbeg Pier today, sheltering from the approaching Storm Kathleen. Photo: Andy Gibson/Cover Images via Reuters
Demonstrators to Mark Quds Day Following Israeli Airstrikes on Iranian Embassy, Aid Group: Demonstrations related to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East are expected to continue today and over the weekend. The protest activity follows Israel’s deadly strike on a World Central Kitchen convoy and the bombing of a consular building next to the Iranian Embassy complex in Damascus, Syria.
Iran has vowed to retaliate against Israel for the Damascus bombing, which killed seven members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including two generals. Israel has responded by reportedly closing several embassies, putting the remaining on high alert, suspending leave for combat units, bolstering air defense, and disrupting GPS signals within the country as it awaits Iran's next move.
Israel’s deadly airstrike on a humanitarian convoy in Gaza has drawn widespread condemnation and further strained its relations with its allies. In response to the outcry, Israel said that it would increase the amount of aid flowing into Gaza.
Both bombings are likely to drive turnout for this weekend’s demonstrations. Worldwide rallies are planned today to mark Quds Day. Notable gatherings this afternoon include one in Manhattan (Times Square at 4 pm and 1 Bowling Green at 6 pm), another in Chicago (Israeli Consulate at 4:30 pm), and finally, a Baltimore protest(corner of Broening Hwy and Maryland Ave) against a visit by President Joe Biden at noon. Over the weekend, demonstrations are expected across the U.K., Australia, and several other countries, including Israel, where opposition to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s prosecution of the war is growing.
Hungarian Opposition Leader Shakes Up National Political Landscape With Corruption Accusations: Expect disruptions in Budapest on Saturday due to a demonstration organized by Hungarian politician Péter Magyar. A former member of the ruling Fidesz party, Magyar made international headlines last week after accusing Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government of widespread corruption.
Magyar is calling on supporters to gather in Budapest for a march on the Hungarian Parliament building, with thousands expected to attend. Related demonstrations have attracted large crowds in recent weeks.
A heightened security presence is expected during Saturday’s rally. Budapest police have announced traffic restrictions for roads near the Parliament building beginning at 8 am.
Magyar is leading calls for change in the government following a sexual abuse pardon scandal involving former President Katalin Novák. Hungary’s Justice Minister has resigned due to public outrage over the situation.
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