Global Conflict & Security Update: November 23-30, 2020
This is a periodic aggregation of open-source articles and information on what is occurring across the world, with a focus on geopolitics and security issues. To ensure to classified information is not mistakenly shared, I am keeping original analysis and commentary to a minimum, and rather hyperlinking to existing articles.
TOPIC CATEGORIES (In Order):
HIGHLIGHTS / SPECIAL MENTION:
Since last Thursday was Thanksgiving, I thought this would be appropriate..
George Washington's Thanksgiving Day Proclamation
EXCERPT: "Both Houses of Congress have requested me to recommend to the People of the United States a day of public thanksgiving and prayer to be observed by acknowledging with grateful hearts the many signal favors of Almighty God, especially by affording them an opportunity peaceably to establish a form of government for their safety and happiness. Now therefore I do recommend and assign Thursday the 26th day of November next to be devoted by the People of these States to the service of that great and glorious Being, who is the beneficent Author of all the good that was, that is, or that will be." —George Washington, given October 3, 1789
THE AMERICAS & POLAR REGIONS | United States
UNITED STATES: Operation WARP SPEED Pivots From Vaccine To Delivery
November 24, 2020 | "With reports of new successful COVID-19 vaccines on the way, the next phase of President Trump’s Operation Warp Speed is revving up. According to a report from the Pentagon, leadership is now shifting its focus to the delivery of the vaccine to the American public. Military logistics planners have teamed up with experts at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to zero in on the plan to deliver millions of vaccines when they become available."
Additional United States News & Commentary:
EUROPE | Belgium
November 29, 2020 | "Assadollah Assadi, third secretary at the Iranian embassy in Vienna, refused to attend the Belgian court trying him for allegedly plotting to bomb a 2018 opposition rally outside Paris in June 2018. Stiff sentences are also demanded for his three accomplices: a Belgian Iranian couple, Nasimeh Naami, 36, and Amir Saadouni, 40, and a Belgium-based Iranian poet, Mehrdad Arefani."
AFRICA | Ethiopia, Libya, Mali, Somalia
November 25, 2020 | "Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) announced in a video released today that its new emir is a longtime veteran of the group, Abu Ubaidah Yusef al Annabi. AQIM’s first emir, Abdelmalek Droukdel (a.k.a. Abu Musab Abdel Wadoud), was killed in early June during a French-led counterterrorism operation in Mali."
November 24, 2020 | "Greece is preparing to send a Special Forces contingent to Mali to join French military forces in carrying out operations against jihadist terrorists. The Greek personnel addition will be small. It will consist of special forces personnel who will be added to the Special Operations Task Force Takuba that is led by the French. Under Takuba, the European operators train, equip, assist and accompany troops from the G5 Sahel (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mauritania) in their ongoing fight against Islamic jihadists from the Islamic State and al-Qaeda."
November 24, 2020 | "Video of Russian-supplied Su-24 FENCER combat jets operating in Libya has emerged online. U.S. Africa Command has said in the past that it believes that shadowy Russian private military contractors with direct ties to the Russian government, are flying these aircraft, which now appear to have Libyan insignias on them, as well as a small fleet of MiG-29 FULCRUM fighter jets, on behalf of the Libyan National Army (LNA). With support from Russia, among other countries, the LNA has been engaged for years now in a civil conflict with Libya's U.N.-backed Government of National Accord (GNA)."
November 19, 2020 | SUMMARY: Modern Ethiopia is a confederation of nine regions, each with its own grievances. Militants in the northern region of Tigray fought a guerilla war with the central government from 1975-1991. The central government began an offensive against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) on November 04, 2020, after the group attacked an Ethiopian military base. Government forces are expected to prevail in all conventional hostilities with the TPLF, however a insurgency phase will be sure to follow, and likely drag on into 2021. Each Ethiopian region, including Tigray, has a right to declare Article 39 of Ethiopia’s constitution (Right to Self-Determination). Any perceived heavy-handed actions by government forces in Tigray may lead other regions to consider secession.
TACTICAL UPDATE: Reporting indicates the Ethiopian Army captured the regional capital of Mekelle on November 28 (Saturday) after a three-directional assault from the north, east, and south. This concludes the conventional phase of the conflict. Two elements to be wary of is whether TPLF fighters transition to an insurgency, and whether political leaders in the region continue a move towards secession despite Ethiopian government gains.
SOMALIA: Acting U.S. Defense Secretary Makes First Ever Visit To Somalia Amid Reports Of Major Troop Cuts
November 27, 2020 | "While Pentagon officials say the purpose of the trip is to meet with troops during the Thanksgiving holiday, it comes amid reports that the Trump administration plans to remove nearly all of the roughly 700 US troops currently deployed in support of the counterterrorism campaign in Somalia, a drawdown that would be just the latest in a series of major military moves and troop withdrawals due to take place just days before President-elect Joe Biden takes the oath of office in January."
Additional Somalia News & Commentary:
MIDDLE EAST & CENTRAL ASIA | Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Yemen
November 25, 2020 | SUMMARY: For the second time in a week, Israeli Air Force aircraft have struck Iranian military members and their proxy militias south of Damascus on Wednesday night. Sources on the ground told the media that the Israelis targeted the military base in Jabal Mane Heights near the town of Kiswa, where Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) have been based for quite some time. The base is located about 10 miles south of the center of Damascus."
Additional Israel News & Commentary:
November 27, 2020 | SUMMARY: On Friday afternoon, Dr. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was assassinated when his convoy was ambushed in a roundabout in Absard, just east of Tehran. While there is inconsistent and speculative reporting, it seems most likely that a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) detonated to stop the convoy, after which an ambush team engaged the security team and shot Fakhrizadeh. Fakhrizadeh was the head of Iran's Defense Ministry’s Research and Innovation Organization, a brigadier general in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and is reputed as the father of Iran’s nuclear weapons and missile programs. No organization has claimed responsibility. The level of impact of this could be compared to the killing of fellow IRGC general Qassem Soleimani last January in Iraq.
Additional Iran News & Commentary:
November 25, 2020 | "The MT Agrari, a Maltese-flagged oil tanker, was attacked in the Saudi Port of Shuqaiq on the Red Sea with a limpet mine attached to its hull above the waterline by an unknown entity. The Houthis in Yemen have employed locally-made naval mines, as well as anti-ship cruise missiles and remote-controlled unmanned suicide boats in attacks on both warships and commercial vessels in the Red Sea in the past. In 2018, Saleh Al Samad, then head of the group, had threatened the idea of cutting off the Red Sea and international navigation among other strategic options targeting the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen." ANALYSIS: An Iranian ship, the Saviz, has been relatively stationary for over 14 months opposite this region of Saudi Arabia along the coast of Eritrea, and is affiliated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). As similar attacks with limpet mines occurred near Iran's coast in 2019, it is not outside the realm of possibility that the Saviz could have been involved in this incident.
November 23, 2020 | SUMMARY: Houthi militants in northwestern Yemen claimed to have fired two Quds 2 missiles into Saudi Arabia on November 22, which reportedly hit a Saudi refinery located north of Jeddah and near King Abdulaziz International Airport. The damage is reminiscent of the Iranian missile strikes on the Saudi Arqaiq oil complex in 2019.
ASIA-PACIFIC | Russia, Taiwan
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November 24, 2020 | "Russia says that the crew aboard the Udaloy class destroyer Admiral Vinogradov, which has been involved in at least one-near collision in recent years, threatened to use a ramming maneuver as it ejected the U.S. Navy's Arleigh Burke destroyer USS JOHN S. MCCAIN from what it claims are its territorial waters in the Peter the Great Gulf in Sea of Japan. The U.S. 7th Fleet confirmed that the Navy ship was conducting a rare so-called Freedom-of-Navigation (FONOP) to challenge Russia's 'excessive maritime claims' in the area, but denies it was forced to leave."
November 24, 2020 | "The inauguration of the submarine-focused shipyard in Kaohsiung in southern Taiwan sets in motion plans to construct eight new diesel-electric submarines under the Taiwan National Non-Nuclear Submarine Design and Construction Program with technical assistance from the United States. The first of these boats is expected to enter service by 2025."
THE UNITED STATES MILITARY
U.S. Naval Update Map: Carrier Strike Groups & Amphibious Ready Groups
Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs) are the primary tools the United States uses to maintain global shipping lanes free of coercion, to deter aggression, and to posture for potential future military operations. The presence or absence of CSGs and ARGs in different regions may give indications of what security threats U.S. senior leaders are concerned of, as well as make the probability of conflict more or less likely.
A Carrier Strike Group (CSG) is composed of roughly 7,500 personnel, an aircraft carrier, at least one cruiser, a destroyer squadron of at least two destroyers or frigates, and a carrier air wing of 65 to 70 aircraft. A carrier strike group also, on occasion, includes submarines, attached logistics ships, and a supply ship.
An Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) consists of a naval element—a group of warships known as an Amphibious Task Force (ATF)—and a Landing Force (LF) of U.S. Marines or U.S. Army Soldiers, in total about 5,000 personnel. Together, these elements and supporting units are trained, organized, and equipped to perform amphibious operations in wartime and humanitarian operations in peacetime.
NOTE: These are approximate (not actual) positions, based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. The source of this information can be found HERE.
● The USS Nimitz (CVN-68) Carrier Strike Group (CSG) is back operating in the Arabian Sea and the U.S. 5th Fleet after operating with the Indian, Japanese, and Australian Navies off the west coast of India as part of the MALABAR 2020 exercise series in the U.S. 7th Fleet.
● The USS Makin Island (LHD-8) Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) is underway in the Western Pacific and transiting west with the 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) embarked. The ARG had just completed a month-long training exercise in the Southern California Operating Area, and was available for national tasking as of November 20.
November 24, 2020 | "The 2021 index makes clear that America’s military power is insufficient to defend America’s interests and partners in a conflict involving multiple fronts around the globe. While our adversaries have spent the past two decades investing in their forces and taking advantage of rapidly advancing technologies, America has been forced to choose between solving a future crippling readiness crisis and investing in modernizing the force to compete. We can no longer settle for one of the other. We must do both."
Additional Joint Operations News & Commentary:
November 30, 2020 | SUMMARY/ANALYSIS: The U.S. Navy has decided against rebuilding the USS BONHOMME RICHARD amphibious assault ship (LHD), which sustained a major fire in July 2020. While the Richard is just one ship, not all ships are made equal, and the this loss will have a significant impact. LHDs are rising in importance vs. full-size aircraft carriers due to their flexibility, faster speed, and less risk if destroyed in combat. The Richard had just been retrofitted to carry F-35s, so that is also a loss. Existing LHDs will have to increase their operational tempo to compensate.
Additional U.S. Navy News & Commentary:
U.S. MARINE CORPS: The Commandant of the Marine Corps Is Charging Into The Future, But Some Aren’t Ready For Change
November 25, 2020 | "Throughout its history, the Corps has had to periodically reinvent itself to maintain its relevance. As America pivots from hunting insurgents in the desert to eying Chinese moves in the Pacific, it’s again one of those times. Let the Army worry about fighting land wars in Asia — everyone knows that’s a classic blunder. The Marine Corps, along with its sister service, the Navy, can concentrate on winning them at sea."
U.S. ARMY: US Special Operators And Army Artillerymen Flex Muscles In Groundbreaking Black Sea Drill
November 23, 2020 | "U.S. special operators and Army artillerymen marked a first in Europe this past week when they loaded ground rockets onto a low-flying aircraft for a quick strike drill that hit targets in the Black Sea. U.S. Air Force MC-130J aircraft and U.S. Army HIMARS (High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System) units practiced rapid long-range deployment during Exercise RAPID FALCON in Romania. This concept is called a HIMARS Rapid Infiltration (HIRAIN). Romania is set to obtain HIMARS and is scheduled for it to be fully operational by 2022."
Additional U.S. Army News & Commentary:
November 23, 2020 | "Sandia National Laboratories, in cooperation with the Los Alamos National Laboratory and the U.S. Air Force, recently completed a round of flight tests as part of the integration of the new B61-12 nuclear gravity bomb onto the F-35A Joint Strike Fighter. The supersonic drop test puts the F-35A a step closer to being able to employ the new nukes, which are literally worth more than their weight in gold. Sandia, together with Los Alamos and the Air Force, are clearly making good progress in ensuring that whenever the first B61-12s do enter service, the Air Force's F-35As will be able to carry them, if the call to do so ever comes."
Additional U.S. Air Force News & Commentary:
U.S. COAST GUARD: Renew The Coast Guard Greenland Patrol
November 25, 2020 | "The red hulls of a U.S. Coast Guard polar security cutter send a decidedly different message than the grey hull of a U.S. Navy warship. Russian and Chinese ambitions will continue to draw them North. The United States needs to have a presence in the Arctic, and a Coast Guard Polar Security Cutter in Greenland shows commitment to the region and will send a strong message."
Additional U.S. Coast Guard News & Commentary:
Previous Weekly Updates May Be Viewed Below:
About Zeph Czelusta
Zeph is a military intelligence officer with the U.S. Army National Guard. His 15-year military career with both the U.S. Army and U.S. Air Force has included three different assignments with U.S. special operations units and the DEA while deployed in Afghanistan. His career has also involved working in information operations, unmanned aerial vehicle operations, and intercontinental ballistic missiles. He has also worked with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security on critical infrastructure protection issues at the national level. He holds a B.A. in Studies of War & Peace from Norwich University. He currently lives in the greater Sacramento, CA area.
Dynamic Project Management in LMS Operations and Data Analytics
4yWait, we’re still dropping nukes? Damn I’ve been outta the loop too long.
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