THE HISTORY OF TRANSPORTATION

Future of Mobility: Transportation Innovation

Since the early 2000s, transportation policies have aimed to leverage technological advancements and innovative public policy to address key global challenges related to mobility. These challenges include reducing emissions, improving air quality, promoting equity and access, enhancing efficiency, and ensuring safety. The vision behind these efforts is to create a "21st century transportation system," a transformative approach that addresses these pressing issues while improving how people and goods move around the world.

The idea behind creating a transformative 21st century transportation system was that advancements in automation, connectivity, electrification, new access models, and big data would result in safer, cheaper, cleaner, more equitable, and efficient mobility. However, two decades later, this vision remains largely aspirational, with minimal real-world impact. To realize the full potential of transport innovation, bold action and commitment are essential. This process must begin by engaging diverse stakeholders to understand the obstacles—such as consumer demand, market realities, and policies—and conclude with effective collaboration between the public and private sectors.

In this post, I will outline the opportunities and propose a plan to unlock the potential for transforming global mobility. The goal is to take concrete steps beyond just discussing ideas, by focusing on actions that can lead to a transportation system that benefits both people and the environment. We're ready to commit to the hard work of moving from words to action, aiming to create a more sustainable and efficient mobility system for the future.

Addressing global transportation challenges successfully requires understanding and adapting to local contexts. Solutions must take into account the specific needs, conditions, and characteristics of the areas they are applied in to be effective.

In this post we will discuss global transportation and energy challenges, but its examples and data mainly focus on non-rural areas. A key takeaway is that there are no one-size-fits-all solutions. While the challenges are global, the solutions must be tailored to local contexts and conditions.

The technologies shaping 21st-century mobility will share common trends globally, but their adoption will vary across regions, populations, and environments, influenced by local policies. This was also true in the 20th century, where transportation innovations like taxis, ride-hailing services, personal cars, high-speed rail, public transit, and electric bicycles were adopted unevenly due to factors like consumer acceptance, policy decisions, and economic conditions.

The plan aims to conduct follow-up research and analysis to develop insights and recommended actions for reimagining mobility across different global regions, populations, and markets. It will explore questions such as how to unblock and scale innovative technologies in American versus European cities, what policy changes can better meet the mobility needs of seniors in rural and suburban areas, and how to improve services for families in different climates. The goal is to understand which mobility trends and innovations can be successfully scaled to enhance people's freedom to move. This requires input from diverse stakeholders to ensure technologies succeed in testing, deployment, and scaling.

This statement calls for exploring practical solutions to fully realize the potential of a 21st-century mobility system. It emphasizes the need to identify strategies and actions that can improve transportation, making it safer, more efficient, and sustainable for the future.

Reimagined mobility refers to an innovative and future-focused approach to transportation that is designed to meet people's needs effectively. It integrates advanced technology and adapts to changing societal demands while prioritizing energy security and environmental sustainability. This concept emphasizes personalized solutions and uses a variety of transportation options (multimodal) to cater to different mobility needs, depending on factors like location, situation, and individual preferences.

A successful reimagining of mobility combines both visionary goals and practical realities. It envisions how electric vehicles, shared autonomous shuttles, or autonomous pods could enhance productivity and enjoyment during commutes. Sustainable options like bicycles or e-scooters could improve efficiency in dense urban areas. However, this vision must remain human-centered, aligning innovations with people's everyday needs and acceptance levels. A 21st-century mobility system should leverage new technologies to address environmental challenges, reduce oil dependency, and provide affordable, accessible, and clean transportation options for everyone.

The vision for the future of mobility focuses on enhancing road safety and integrating technologies like AI, machine learning, and IoT. By combining connectivity, automation, electrification, and data analytics, this vision aims to create smarter, more efficient transportation systems. It emphasizes collaboration between the private and public sectors to offer better mobility options that are sustainable and resilient. Additionally, this future of mobility will drive global innovation in transport technology, ensuring digital security and supply chain resilience, ultimately improving everyday life, strengthening economies, and building healthier communities.

This post explores why, despite over two decades into the 21st century, reimagined mobility has yet to be fully realized, with some areas falling behind. It emphasizes that there are no quick or one-size-fits-all solutions, like solely focusing on vehicle electrification or shared-use vehicles, which will likely fall short. The post highlights that transforming transportation requires collaboration between the public and private sectors, and that achieving reimagined mobility involves long-term vision coupled with short-term action. It also warns against complacency, especially as global peers like China have taken the lead in areas like electric and autonomous vehicles. Successful change will depend on putting the right market incentives, policies, regulations, and institutions in place to foster innovation.

New mobility technologies and services have the potential to significantly enhance transportation systems, but their impact will take time to materialize and won't happen immediately.

This post emphasizes the critical connection between economic competitiveness, national security, and the future of mobility, particularly in Europe and other nations. Falling behind China in automotive and technology sectors has significant implications for economic and national security, as economic prosperity fuels industrial strength and stable democratic societies. It critiques the narrow debates that either dismiss advanced mobility technologies as failures or assume the U.S. still leads in innovation, arguing that both views hinder progress. This post highlights the need for new policies and collaboration across sectors to address the challenges and unlock the potential of a reimagined mobility future. It serves as a call to action for stakeholders to work towards more connected, secure, and sustainable transportation systems, with a particular focus on Europe but with global relevance.

The post begins by providing a historical overview of the evolution of the current transportation system, starting from the early automotive age to today’s developments in electrified and connected mobility. While the analysis focuses on Europe, the insights and lessons are relevant to other regions as well. Future posts will explore how to reimagine mobility in a coordinated and mutually beneficial way across various countries.

The convergence of transportation, technology, and connectivity marks a significant societal shift, presenting a crucial opportunity for stakeholders to collaborate and shape the future of mobility. Europe and its allies are at a pivotal moment where they must decide to fully embrace and accelerate toward this new mobility model.

current mobility landscape

The transportation sector is experiencing a significant transformation due to advancements in connectivity, automation, electrification, and technologies like artificial intelligence and robotics. Despite this technological progress, the scaling of these innovations has been limited, with some advancements even stalling. A thorough evaluation of the current mobility landscape is necessary to identify barriers to scaling and to improve consumer acceptance and market realities. Addressing these issues is crucial for achieving safety, security, accessibility, and sustainability. While other regions may be more advanced in deploying these technologies, this post focuses on the European experience.

Autonomous Vehicles

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) have the potential to significantly transform transportation by making it safer, more efficient, and more accessible. Since 2020, limited operational testing of AVs has begun in commercial markets, showing steady progress in bringing this technology to market. However, several barriers still need to be addressed to fully scale AVs and realize their benefits. A key challenge is the lack of federal policy leadership, which has led to uneven testing and deployment across markets, limiting the overall impact on the mobility system. Additionally, consumer acceptance and market dynamics pose challenges, alongside the need for parallel investments in enabling technologies crucial for the successful large-scale deployment of AVs.

Vehicle Connectivity

Software-defined vehicles are becoming more prevalent, supported by a strong communications infrastructure that enhances vehicle connectivity. This includes telematics platforms that connect vehicles to external systems and cellular vehicle-to-everything (C-V2X) communications aimed at improving safety. While these advancements have led to improved consumer experiences, enhanced roadway safety, and revenue opportunities for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), suppliers, and other stakeholders, significant barriers remain. The primary challenge lies in effectively applying and monetizing data. This barrier will continue without strong partnerships and a coordinated effort involving both policy and market forces to foster collaboration among various public and private stakeholders.

Vehicle Electrification

Electric vehicles (EVs) make up 8.6% of new vehicle sales in the U.S. and 14% globally, with many countries setting ambitious EV adoption targets. However, concerns remain about affordability and adoption. In 2022, U.S. households spent 16.9% of their after-tax income on transportation, significantly affecting low-income families. The high upfront cost of EVs, averaging around $64,000, deters many potential buyers. Additionally, scaling EV production is challenged by potential resource shortages, as large amounts of critical minerals like copper, cobalt, and lithium are required. China dominates the supply chain for these materials, creating a potential bottleneck, which calls for efforts to diversify the market and production sources.

Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS)

Mobility as a Service (MaaS) integrates various transportation modes, like public transit, rideshare, and micromobility, into a seamless service. Globally, public-sector-driven MaaS platforms are closely tied to fixed-route transit, while in the U.S., companies like Uber and Lyft lead on-demand mobility, with 26% of Americans using these services monthly. The key challenge for MaaS is scaling and integrating its components across markets, while addressing obstacles that hinder the user-centered approach needed for its success.

Vehicle Design

New mobility technologies have the potential to transform transportation not only through propulsion, connectivity, or software, but also by optimizing vehicle design for specific use cases. For example, right-sized vehicles like shared robotaxis, accessible to people with physical disabilities, could enhance efficiency in manufacturing and deployment. Reducing EV battery sizes alone could cut lithium demand by 42% by 2050. However, outdated vehicle design regulations and consumer preferences have hindered progress, allowing Chinese manufacturers to dominate the smaller, more affordable vehicle market segment.

That's it for now. We'll be back soon with a follow-up post. Did you like this post? Interested in more? Feel free to like and/or share with your network.