India's G20 Triumph: 5 Big Takeaways | IT Sector's Path to Recovery | What is UPI Lite all about?
This week's edition covers the resounding success that India achieved in its G20 presidency and a deep dive into the 5 big takeaways from it. Moreover, we deconstruct the reasons behind the IT sector's recovery.
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India Affirms Its Place on the World Stage: 5 key things that came out of the G20 summit and how India Stands to Benefit?
The highly anticipated G20 summit in New Delhi has drawn to a close, leaving diplomats from around the globe singing praises of India's remarkably successful presidency and its diplomatic prowess
Not only did India manage to bridge deep divisions within the bloc, but it also laid a strong foundation for deeper future cooperation
Let’s dive deep into the 5 key takeaways from the New Delhi Summit:
1) Inclusion of the African Union: G20 Becomes G21
India's presidency saw the expansion of the G20 into the G21, marking a significant milestone. This move underscores the importance of ensuring that Africa, representing one-fifth of global humanity, is no longer underrepresented on the world stage.
The inclusion of the African Union sends a powerful message regarding the reforms sought by this 55-nation bloc, particularly within global and multilateral institutions like the United Nations Security Council.
India’s role and how does it benefit? Well, in June, Prime Minister Narendra Modi presented a bold proposal to G20 leaders, advocating full membership for the African Union at the Delhi Summit.
While India's structured outreach to Africa began in 2008, it's essential to note that China initiated its engagement in 2000, during the presidency of Jiang Zemin. The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) has since evolved as a testament to China's expanding interests in the African continent.
However, India's inclusion of the African Union in the G20 pitches it as a global leader advocating for the needs of both developing and underdeveloped nations, reinforcing its commitment to international inclusivity and aligning with its UNSC ambitions.
2) India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor: A Strategic Challenge to the BRI
On the eve of the 10th anniversary of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a momentous development unfolded. India, in collaboration with the US, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, Italy, and the European Union, inked a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to establish the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEE-EC).
This ambitious corridor seeks to enhance economic integration
The rail link will make trade between India and Europe nearly 40% faster, said the European Commission President.
In a nutshell, it will:
3) G20 Joint Declaration: Achieving Unanimous Consensus
In a remarkable diplomatic feat, India secured unanimous agreement on the "New Delhi Leaders' Summit Declaration" covering all developmental and geopolitical matters.
How did India mediate?
The declaration called for “comprehensive, just, and durable peace in Ukraine” and urged member states to “refrain from the threat of use of force to seek territorial acquisition” or act against the territorial integrity of any state. The declaration also stressed that the use, or threat of use, of nuclear weapons to be “inadmissible”.
The declaration also saw the mention of Prime Minister’s Narendra Modi’s Mission LiFE (Lifestyle for Environment), a global plan that aims to save the planet from the disastrous consequences of climate change. “We will urgently accelerate our actions to address development and climate challenges, promote Lifestyles for Sustainable Development (LiFE), and conserve biodiversity, forests and oceans,” it read.
4) Consensus on Climate Change: Overcoming Divisions
While the Russia-Ukraine conflict stirred division, the G20 also faced challenges regarding climate change. However, a consensus emerged on addressing the climate crisis
Contentious issues, including commitments to reduce fossil fuel use, increase renewable energy targets, and lower greenhouse gas emissions, faced objections from China and Saudi Arabia.
During the declaration negotiations, India and other developing nations stressed the importance of developed countries fulfilling their commitments, while developed nations advocated for global climate-related targets. The New Delhi declaration calls for the phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies and a commitment to reduce "unabated coal power" while ensuring clean energy generation.
5) Global Biofuels Alliance: A Green Initiative
Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of the Global Biofuels Alliance on Saturday, September 9.
19 countries and 12 international organizations, including both G20 members and non-members, have embraced this alliance. Founding members include India, Brazil, and the US. The launch occurred in the presence of global leaders such as Joe Biden, Luiz Inacio da Silva, Alberto Angel Fernández, Giorgia Meloni, and Sheikh Hasina. Besides G20 member countries, non-members like Bangladesh, Singapore, Mauritius, and the UAE are also invited to participate in this promising initiative.
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How does India’s domestic economy benefit?
To sum it up, The New Delhi G20 Summit not only showcased India's rising global stature but also set a precedent for collaborative diplomacy and meaningful reform in international relations.
IT Sector’s Path to Recovery
The Indian IT sector has traversed a rollercoaster journey in recent years, shaped by a series of ups and downs. Following a post-pandemic surge, the sector encountered a slew of challenges, marked by layoffs and sluggish growth. It was only about June 2023 onwards the IT sector began exhibiting early signs of recovery. Since then, the IT sector has not only rebounded but has also outpaced the broader Nifty index significantly. In this article, we revisit the trajectory of the Indian IT sector, shedding light on its past struggles and offering insights into what the future may hold.
In the aftermath of the pandemic, as the world embraced remote work, a seismic shift occurred, with a heightened focus on digitization and related domains like cybersecurity. This digital revolution propelled the Nifty IT index to unprecedented highs. During this period, there was an enthusiastic wave of hiring as companies sought to accommodate what appeared to be an ever-expanding array of new business opportunities.
However, this optimistic scenario took a turn when inflation concerns took centre stage, triggering one of the most aggressive phases of monetary tightening in recent memory. The tightening measures were particularly pronounced in the United States and Europe, where the surge in inflation levels was virtually unparalleled. To exacerbate matters, the impact of interest rate hikes on inflation was gradual, resulting in an extended period of exceptionally high-interest rates and raising fears of stagflation. This adverse macroeconomic environment had repercussions, especially for FAANG stocks in the US and Indian IT firms that predominantly served clients in these regions. As companies globally scaled back their technology investments amidst these macroeconomic headwinds, the pipeline of deals dwindled, and the initial hiring fervour gave way to large-scale layoffs. During this phase, the Nifty IT index witnessed a correction exceeding 30 per cent from its peak. Now, we examine how the Indian IT sector has navigated through these challenges and where it stands today.
Valuation at reasonable levels:
Even though the Indian IT sector has experienced an upswing in its fortunes lately, its Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio remains notably lower than its historical average. Furthermore, despite some recent challenges, the sector’s long-term growth potential remains solid. It continues to hold its position as a compelling option for long-term investors seeking capital appreciation. Nevertheless, it’s essential to acknowledge that short-term fluctuations and corrections are possible, given that risks persist, and valuations have climbed, leaving limited margin for absorbing any unexpected setbacks in the near term.
Earnings update:
IT companies experienced only a slight increase in revenues during the first quarter, which is typically a strong period for this sector. Infosys, a major player in the IT industry, provided considerably lower guidance for the financial year 2024 than initially expected. However, the results for the rest of the IT sector were largely in line with street estimates. Because the IT sector had already experienced a significant correction, any absence of negative news was seen as a positive development. Consequently, despite the sharp drop in Infosys’s stock price following their results, the overall IT sector outperformed the Nifty index after the earnings announcements.
US Economy is resilient however challenges still persist in Europe:
Within the US, despite the overall economy demonstrating resilience in the face of interest rate hikes, the banking sector has adopted a cautious approach, affecting lending and IT expenditures. This cautious stance raises questions about the prospects of Indian IT firms like Mphasis, primarily serving the US BFSI (Banking, Financial Services, and Insurance) sector. Additionally, the unpredictability surrounding artificial intelligence and its potential impact on traditional IT services adds another layer of uncertainty. More and more economists, including those within the Federal Reserve, are becoming optimistic about the United States avoiding a recession. However, concrete confirmation of this positive outlook might not emerge until well into 2024. However, the path to recovery for Europe might be longer and more challenging compared to the US.
Conclusion:
Despite sector-specific challenges, particularly with the advent of AI, it’s crucial for investors to emphasize companies in the IT realm that showcase adaptability in the face of rapid change
Week Ahead for Markets: What to Expect?
A day after India concluded its mega G20 summit, Nifty 50 breached the 20,000-point mark on Monday after 52-trading sessions, reaching its all-time high, as investors remain optimistic and the markets continue bull run for the seventh consecutive day. It closed at a record 19,996.35 on Monday.
Sensex, the 30-share BSE pack, closed at 67,127, near its all-time high of 67,571.90. Here's what to expect for the week ahead:
Up your finance quotient: What else needs your attention?
NPCI’s (National Payment Corporation of India) UPI (Unified Payment Interface) has quickly become India’s widely accepted digital payment system as it offers a great amount of convenience and ease of use. Before the world even catches up with India’s unique payment mechanism, we are already hopping onto UPI Lite. To allow more space in the core banking systems, NPCI has now launched an ‘on-device’ wallet called UPI Lite. This offline system can be used for small-value transactions. Click on the above image to take a closer look at this new payment mechanism through our blog.
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