MAKER'S MARKET DOSSIER
Issue #3: 12.4.2024
❤️🫦AMUSE BOUCHE – Recalibration with a View
Today’s market played out like a high-stakes negotiation over cocktails in a penthouse bar. Growth sectors held the room, with the Nasdaq rising ▲1.30% as AI-driven optimism brought the kind of energy only new money can buy. Meanwhile, energy markets flinched, with crude oil slipping ▼1.58% on unexpected inventory builds, and transportation stocks stumbled under the weight of weak freight demand.
And of course, Bitcoin is breaking $100,000 as these words are being composed.
Beneath the surface, the unifying theme is rotation and recalibration. Investors worked the room, swapping defensive stances for high-beta plays like tech and crypto, chasing growth even as macro uncertainties loomed in the background. At the same time, corporate shakeups—like Intel’s leadership upheaval—sent ripples through the old guard, underscoring how vulnerable established sectors feel in a rapidly shifting landscape.
MARKET MOOD – Juggling on a Tightrope
📈 The Nasdaq stole the spotlight, leaping 1.30% to a high of 19,735.12, riding the AI hype train. But dig a little deeper, and the market’s glossy facade starts to show cracks—big, ugly ones. We begin with the bombshells: not one, but two high-profile CEO exits.
🚗 Carlos Tavares ditched Stellantis, signaling that even top brass are done pretending the auto industry can coast through the EV debacle unscathed. Crumbling consumer demand have made a demolition derby of the once sturdy automakers. 📱 Then, Intel’s Pat Gelsinger also exited stage left. With bleeding market share to nimbler competitors and semiconductor supply chains potentially throttled by China’s export bans on gallium and germanium, the move could be less of a resignation and more like an evacuation.
📉 The Dow Jones Transportation Index, meanwhile, dropped 1.8%—a perfect snapshot of an economy groaning under the weight of weak freight demand and rising input costs. If transportation is the canary in the coal mine, today’s performance suggests that bird just keeled over.
🌏 Geopolitics kept throwing punches, too. South Korea’s reversal of martial law provided some relief, but unresolved political chaos kept the region’s markets jittery. China’s calculated middle finger escalated its trade war with Uncle Sam. Gold held its ground, while crude oil slipped 1.58% to $68.83 as surprise U.S. inventory builds overshadowed OPEC’s big talk about cuts.
🇰🇷 Enjoy a Stiff Pour of the South Korean KOSPI following the Peninsula’s moves toward martial law for more on the mood in Asia.
The Twist?
Today’s action was a lesson in the duality of sweet and sour: bullish tech fervor colliding with bearish geopolitical paranoia. It’s up to you to choose your own adventure between champagne toasts and clutching a parachute. It’s a bullish brew with bearish undertones—stirred and shaken!
Bottoms up …
💨 TRADE WINDS – A Market Caught in the Breeze
🇨🇳 At the heart of the day’s drama was China’s latest chess move: restrictions on gallium and germanium exports, critical for semiconductors. This wasn’t just trade policy—it was economic warfare. Chipmakers, already struggling with weak demand, found themselves in a supply chain chokehold. The sector’s uncertainty rippled through tech-heavy indices, adding volatility to what should have been a one-sided rally.
⚡️ Energy markets fared similarly. Crude oil slumped ▼1.58% to $68.83 after U.S. inventory data showed a surprising build of over a million barrels. OPEC’s whispers of supply cuts were drowned out by the hard reality of waning demand forecasts. Natural gas prices, however, crept higher, a seasonal nod to colder weather in North America—a rare bright spot in an otherwise dim energy market.
💸 Currencies were flung like canaries in a squall, with no clear direction. 💵 The U.S. dollar held firm against the euro, which hovered above 1.05 as traders waited for the European Central Bank to clarify its rate stance. 🇦🇺 The Australian dollar stumbled after weak GDP figures hinted at looming rate cuts. 🇯🇵 Meanwhile, the Japanese yen hit a wall, with USD/JPY reclaiming the 150 mark as risk sentiment in APAC took a hit from South Korea’s political unrest.
⛯ SECTOR SPOTLIGHT
🚚 Transportation Hits a Rough Patch
Today’s sectoral performance felt like a highway packed with holiday drivers: some cautiously coasting, others weaving recklessly between lanes, and the transportation sector running on fumes. The Dow Jones Transportation Index fell ▼1.8%, leading the day’s losers as freight companies like FedEx and UPS careened ▼4% and ▼3%, respectively. Rising costs, weak demand, and macroeconomic roadblocks left the sector looking less like the economy’s engine and more like a stalled truck blocking the way forward.
But transportation wasn’t the only passenger in today’s market ride. Other sectors wrestled with their own detours and hazards, creating a patchwork of gains, losses, and volatility worth a closer look.
🛣️ Freight Finds High Costs in Empty Lanes
Freight demand, typically a bright spot in Q4, looks like it took a wrong turn this year. Instead of holiday cheer filling trucks and airplanes, logistics companies are grappling with soft industrial activity and cautious consumer spending. Factory orders are light, inventories remain high, and even retail shipments are losing momentum.
✈️ FedEx and UPS, bellwethers for the sector, took hard hits today as operational costs stayed high despite crude oil slipping ▼1.58% to $68.83. Earlier price spikes had already done their damage, leaving diesel bills higher than a New Year’s Eve bar tab. These couriers aren’t just facing lighter loads—they’re lugging the added weight of diminished expectations … bad news for an industry counting on the holiday rush.
🛰️ Tech Races On … But Check the Engine
Tech’s holiday highway was smoother, but cracks are starting to show. The Nasdaq surged as AI and software companies like Palantir kept fueling optimism—Palantir rose ▲5.3% after its FedRAMP High Authorization reinforced its dominance in government contracts.
👁️ Enjoy a Stiff Pour of Palantir for more on recent insider selling PLTR and its possible meaning for shorter term ideas on how to trade (or not to trade) the newsflow. See my recent expose of the Palantir’s stock structure for a discussion of its longer term merits (or lack thereof) for common investors.
📱 However, semiconductors, the pistons of tech innovation, continued to misfire. Intel’s abrupt CEO exit left investors skittish, while China’s gallium and germanium export restrictions tightened the screws on global supply chains. For now, the tech rally feels like a well-polished car on a precarious bridge: impressive, but not guaranteed to hold under pressure.
🥉 Copper also stalled out, slipping on weaker Chinese PMI data that reflected industrial demand stuck in neutral. Meanwhile, geopolitical disruptions, like China’s semiconductor metal restrictions, continue to steer the metals narrative.
₿ Crypto Drives Pedal to the Metal
In stark contrast to transportation’s slowdown, crypto screamed down the fast lane, led by Ethereum’s ▲6.24% surge. Institutional interest gave Ethereum an extra turbocharge, while Bitcoin climbed ▲2.91% on steady momentum just shy of the $100k psychological milestone.
Yet not every coin stayed on the road. XRP’s ▼6.05% skid proved that the crypto sector’s volatility remains as unpredictable as a GPS on a foggy night. Altcoins, particularly AMP (▲19.93%) and Chainlink (▲12.8%), sped ahead, signaling a robust Alt Season rally.
🚚 Transportation: A Barometer of Macro Strains
Transportation is the economy’s designated driver. Today it was a little lost and looking for gas money. Rising fuel costs, weak freight demand, and slowing industrial activity have turned the once-reliable Q4 surge into a non-starter.
✈️ Even air freight struggled, caught between rising costs and dwindling volumes. If consumer spending doesn’t pick up or industrial orders remain flat, the sector may find itself parked on the shoulder, waiting for a tow truck that’s nowhere in sight.
🛣️ Today’s market was a tale of two highways: growth sectors like crypto and tech sped ahead, fueled by optimism and institutional interest, while transportation and traditional industries wrestled with potholes and detours. The divergence was stark, and the takeaway is clear: there’s no universal route to safety or profit right now.
🛞 For those willing to take the wheel, selective positioning is the name of the game. Tech and crypto offer speed but come with risk; transportation and energy promise resilience but need the macro winds to shift. Buckle up, keep your eyes on the road, and maybe—just maybe—pour yourself one more for the road. This journey is far from over.
Have “One More” for the Road …
🎲 RISK RADAR – Volatility Served Up Straight, No Chaser
Today’s market was less an orderly flow of capital and more a drunken brawl at an all-you-can-drink risk buffet. Geopolitical sabers rattled, CEOs ghosted their companies like bad Tinder dates, and crypto traders screamed, “Alt Season!” while swinging from chandeliers. The result? A cocktail of chaos, with a splash of opportunity for those bold enough—or reckless enough—to take a sip.
🍸 Trade War Negroni, Extra Bitter
China decided it was time to play dirty, weaponizing gallium and germanium—two nerdy-sounding metals that happen to be crucial for semiconductors. The message to the U.S.? “Your tech dominance is on notice.” Chipmakers, already reeling from demand softness, now face a supply chain chokehold so tight it squeaks. Investors are sweating as tech’s golden goose suddenly looks like it’s waddling toward the chopping block.
🥳 CEOs Who Left the Party Early
Carlos Tavares of Stellantis and Pat Gelsinger of Intel both bolted, leaving behind industries that were already in existential crises. Stellantis is stuck in the slow lane, hamstrung by sluggish EV demand and sky-high rates. Meanwhile, Intel’s Gelsinger threw in the towel as his company kept losing rounds in the semiconductor fight club. These exits weren’t polite goodbyes; they were flare signals that the smart money smells smoke. Here is the Playbook for CEO Chaos:
🧇 Waffle House of the Eternal Morning After
The Fed hinted at rate cuts like a waiter teasing you with a dessert menu but never taking your order. Inflation hasn’t left the room, and global growth looks about as sturdy as a house of cards in a windstorm. Australia dropped GDP data so weak it made their koalas look industrious, while China’s PMI figures reminded everyone that the world’s workshop might be running out of orders.
🛢️ Energy markets weren’t immune to the madness. Crude oil slipped ▼1.58% to $68.83 on surprise U.S. inventory builds, proving once again that nobody has a clue what demand looks like anymore. Natural gas edged up, bolstered by winter’s icy embrace, but traders weren’t exactly breaking out the champagne.
🃏 Alt Season: The Crypto Carnival Is Back in Town
If traditional markets were a bad Tinder date, crypto is the raucous Vegas weekend. Lock in profits before the FOMO crowd turns into the exit-stampede crowd. The brightest bangs are coming from the smaller altcoins. Alt Season moves are explosive but fleeting, so follow volume and breakout signals, and don’t overstay your welcome. See WATCHLIST, below.
🕳️ Cracks Are Showing Amid Sector-Specific Risks
🌊 This isn’t just volatility; it’s opportunity in disguise—if you’ve got the guts to take the right bets. Pour yourself another stiff one and strap in …
👀 WATCHLISTS
Commodities
Metals
🥇 Gold trades steady at $2,650.48, reflecting its role as a safe haven amid persistent macro uncertainties. Investor interest remains high due to geopolitical risks in South Korea and the Middle East. Resistance is near $2,675, with support at $2,625.
🥈 Silver: gained 1.11% to $31.34, outperforming gold on the back of industrial demand expectations. The metal continues to find strength from hybrid safe-haven and industrial applications, with strong support at $30.50.
🥉 Copper: prices were subdued, trading near $3.99. Softer-than-expected PMI data from China has dampened industrial demand, maintaining pressure on prices. A breakout above $4.10 would signal a recovery.
🥇/🥈 Gold-Silver Ratio: 84.57, maintaining its stability. A decline below 84 could indicate stronger industrial demand for silver relative to gold.
🥇/🥉 Gold-Copper Ratio: remains elevated, reflecting copper’s sluggish performance relative to gold. Further economic weakness could widen this ratio, signaling stronger safe-haven flows.
Please visit my Tradingview page for a real-time version of this Watchlist.
Recommended by LinkedIn
⚡️ Energy
🛢️ Crude Oil (WTI): fell 1.58% to $68.83 following a surprising inventory build of over 1 million barrels. Concerns over weakening demand weigh on short-term sentiment.
🛢️ Brent Crude: dropped 1.36% to $72.62, mirroring WTI’s decline. OPEC’s upcoming decisions on supply adjustments are crucial for near-term price stabilization.
𐂕 Natural Gas: edged higher to $3.07, supported by seasonal demand as colder weather sets in. A break above $3.10 would confirm upward momentum.
⛽ Gasoline: prices slipped to $1.94 (-0.79%), reflecting reduced consumer travel demand and easing refinery constraints.
♣️ Coal: stable at $123/ton, with market focus on Asian demand and Europe’s winter energy security concerns.
⛢ Uranium: gained traction as a strategic energy asset, trading near $66/pound. Interest remains elevated amid rising global nuclear energy adoption.
Please visit my Tradingview page for a real-time version of this Watchlist.
Indices
🌏 APAC Session
🇯🇵 Nikkei 225: Closed slightly higher at 39,276.39 (+0.07%), with gains capped by mixed investor sentiment. A lack of Japan-specific catalysts limited upward momentum.
🇨🇳 Shanghai Composite: Declined to 3,364.65 (-0.42%), reflecting investor caution amid mixed PMI data and trade frictions with the U.S.
🇭🇰 Hang Seng: Finished nearly flat at 19,742.46 (-0.02%) as weak sentiment from the mainland weighed on the session.
🇦🇺 ASX 200: Dropped 0.38% to 8,462.60, led lower by real estate and financials following weaker-than-expected GDP data.
🌍 European Session
🇫🇷 CAC 40: Gained 0.66% to 7,303.28, supported by strength in tech and autos, despite broader market caution.
🇩🇪 DAX 30: Rose 1.08% to 20,232.14, driven by optimism around industrial recovery and dovish ECB expectations.
🇬🇧 FTSE 100: Declined slightly to 8,335.81 (-0.28%) as weakness in healthcare and financials offset gains in energy stocks.
🌎 US Session
🇺🇸 DXY: The U.S. dollar index remained firm at 106.52, reflecting its safe-haven appeal amid mixed economic signals and Fed policy uncertainty.
🇺🇸 Dow Jones Industrial Average: Gained 0.69% to 45,014.04, driven by blue-chip strength in industrials.
🇺🇸 Nasdaq Composite: Climbed 1.30% to 19,735.12, with tech stocks benefiting from AI-driven growth optimism.
🇺🇸 Russell 2000: Rose modestly by 0.42% to 2,426.56, supported by small-cap buying interest.
Please visit my Tradingview page for a real-time version of this Watchlist.
🇺🇸 U.S. Stocks Watchlist
American Airlines Group (AAL): Closed at $14.88 (+2.83%), supported by increased travel demand heading into the holiday season. Upward momentum reflects strong revenue expectations and declining jet fuel prices.
Apple (AAPL): Finished at $243.01 (+0.15%), maintaining stability amid broader tech strength. Investors are focused on upcoming product updates and potential AI-driven initiatives.
Amazon (AMZN): Gained 2.21% to $218.16, buoyed by strong e-commerce activity and continued AWS growth optimism. Analysts remain bullish on its Q4 performance.
Bank of America (BAC): Dropped 0.96% to $46.37, reflecting broader financial sector weakness amid tightening credit conditions. Bond market volatility adds to pressure.
Ford Motor Co. (F): Declined 0.74% to $10.74, with concerns over rising costs in EV production and ongoing UAW labor negotiations weighing on sentiment.
Intel (INTC): Fell 2.27% to $21.96 as uncertainty around leadership following Pat Gelsinger’s resignation continues to pressure investor confidence. Challenges in the semiconductor space add downside risk.
Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA): Surged another 3.30% to $25.96, benefiting from Bitcoin’s rally (+2.91%). Increased institutional adoption of cryptocurrency mining boosts sentiment.
NVIDIA (NVDA): Climbed 3.48% to $485.13, leading the semiconductor space with robust AI-driven growth. Despite industry-wide concerns, Nvidia’s performance remains strong.
Tesla (TSLA): Rose 1.85% to $357.93, driven by optimism around year-end delivery targets and new production capacity expansions globally.
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD): Gained 0.95% to $10.65 as investor sentiment improved following successful launches in its streaming segment. The ongoing content pivot adds upside potential.
Please visit my Tradingview page for a real-time version of this Watchlist.
🛡️ Bond Markets
🌏 APAC
🇯🇵 Japan 10-Year JGB Yield: Steady at 1.05%, reflecting continued BoJ intervention. Lack of catalysts keeps yields range-bound.
🌍 Europe
🇫🇷 French OAT 10-Year Yield: Closed at 2.89%, up marginally (+0.05bps). Rising concerns over fiscal constraints amidst growing government borrowing needs.
🇩🇪 German Bund 10-Year Yield: Declined to 2.05% (-0.40bps). Dovish ECB commentary as policymakers weigh moderate December rate cuts amid economic stagnation.
🇬🇧 UK Gilt 10-Year Yield: Stabilized at 4.25%, reflecting mixed economic signals and BoE guidance on 2025 rate cuts. Persistent inflation concerns offset by expectations of slower economic growth.
OAT-Bund Spread: Slightly widened to 0.84bps, reflecting relative fiscal risks in France compared to Germany.
🌎 Americas
🇺🇸 US 2-Year Yield: Dipped to 4.13% (-0.06%), reflecting cautious Fed rhetoric on potential rate cuts in early 2025.
🇺🇸 US 10-Year Yield: Lower at 4.19% (-3.6bps), influenced by soft macro data and demand for long-duration bonds.
🇺🇸 US 30-Year Yield: Declined slightly to 4.36% (-0.05bps), signaling subdued long-term inflation expectations.
🇺🇸 US 2Y-10Y Spread: Steepened slightly to -0.06bps, reflecting market pricing of rate cuts in the near term.
Please visit my Tradingview page for a real-time version of this Watchlist.
Cryptocurrencies
₿ Bitcoin just surpassed $100K USD, technically after the closing prices cited below. These are ripe days for Crypto traders, but the season may be a short one. Expect more coverage of the sector in future issues, and build your bank of questions.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC): Bitcoin rose 2.91% to $98,748.29, continuing its push toward the $100,000 psychological level, alongside rising Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D), which now stands at 51.3%. Miners such as Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) saw correlated gains (+3.30%). Resistance lies at $100,000, while support is firm around $96,000.
Ξ Ethereum (ETH): Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin, surging 6.24% to $3,843.27.
🅇 XRP (XRP): XRP struggled, falling 6.05% to $2.36. Market sentiment remains dampened by regulatory uncertainty, as ongoing legal battles with the SEC weigh heavily on investor confidence. The price is nearing critical support at $2.30, with resistance at $2.50.
🄷 Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR): HBAR declined sharply by 8.48% to $0.288. Reduced speculative interest and bearish momentum have overshadowed recent developments in enterprise adoption. Support lies at $0.28, with resistance near $0.30.
🄰 Algorand (ALGO): Algorand dropped 5.35% to $0.479, reflecting broader weakness in Layer 1 blockchain platforms. Despite strong technical fundamentals, it continues to struggle against competitors with larger ecosystems. ALGO’s price action suggests limited near-term upside, with key support at $0.47.
⛓️ Chainlink (LINK): Chainlink fell slightly by 0.08% to $24.09, despite continued integration into DeFi protocols. Its relative resilience signals strong developer activity, but sustained breakout above $25 remains critical for upward momentum.
🟣 Polkadot (DOT): Polkadot surged 7.50% to $10.52, making it one of today’s top-performing altcoins. Renewed developer activity in its parachain ecosystem has driven speculative interest. Resistance stands at $11, while $10 serves as new support.
⚡️ Amp Token (AMP): AMP rocketed 19.93% to $0.0105, reflecting heightened speculation and increasing transaction volumes. As a collateral token supporting payment networks, AMP has seen renewed interest, though it remains highly volatile. Resistance is at $0.011, with support near $0.0098.
🎺 JasmyCoin (JASMY): JasmyCoin remained subdued, slipping 0.25% to $0.039. While trading volumes have declined, it retains a loyal base of speculative traders. Support holds at $0.038, with resistance at $0.040.
For a deeper dive into any of the various crypto projects in this Watchlist, please follow individual links above, or explore the Technical Speculator’s Dictionary or the Public Private Wiki Project. Otherwise, please visit my Tradingview page for a real-time version of this Watchlist.
PAY-OFF
As one trading day closes and before the next even begins, Bitcoin has already stolen the spotlight, breaking through the $100,000 barrier.
The Federal Reserve’s early 2025 rate cut signals steepened the U.S. yield curve, highlighting inflation concerns and economic deceleration. Divergent monetary paths between the ECB’s December cuts and the BoE’s dovish tone added fuel to currency market volatility. Commodities are a mixed bag: soybeans showed resilience on strong U.S. export sales, but Brazil’s record harvests loom as a bearish overhang. Meanwhile, corn is ripe for shorting, as oversupply dampens sentiment.
Tomorrow’s markets will demand attention to the evolving interplay between geopolitics, monetary policies, and sector-specific opportunities. With altcoins like Ethereum (+6.24%) riding the wave, crypto remains the arena for bolder moves in other Altcoins, while traditional sectors like transportation and energy struggle to keep pace. As always, the Technical Speculator’s interest is in relative timing and precise positioning.
CAVEAT EMPTOR
This is NOT financial advice. The intention here is to learn from Real-World capital flow how to recognize, measure and profit from the price action of various asset classes in these tense times. Only YOU can select a strategy that suits your temperament, your tolerance for risk and your time horizon, such that no content for public consumption will coincide with your strategy exactly … assuming that you have a strategy. Participation in financial asset markets is intrinsically risky; long-term profitable navigators agree that you should never risk more buying power than you are willing and able to lose. Also, beware of fraudulent actors. Since counter-party risk is real, strive to learn from your mistakes and others’. Finally and most importantly, what others feel, you will feel, ergo study your emotions, but do not trust them or obey them.
© adrian dyer 2024