MAKER'S MARKET DOSSIER

Issue #6: 12.14.2024

Originally published at the Leading Indicator blog.

❤️🫦AMUSE BOUCHE …

This year’s final Friday the 13th falls in December—a date dripping with superstition but surprisingly rich in number theory. For the Fibonacci crowd, 13 isn’t unlucky; it’s golden. A perfect balance of nature’s ratios, it suggests alignment and transformation—perhaps a fitting omen for markets caught in a swirl of uncertainty.

Anyways, the executive decision has been handed down to make this newsletter a weekly affair, with occasional supplements tossed in throughout the week like extra-virgin maraschino olives. The few issues predating 2025 exist to perfect the method and finalize the format; now is the time for constructive feedback from the peanut gallery. More details are sure to follow, as a new generation of elves settles into the workshop to master the FinBERT arts. As always, the links will take the serious drinker to original places to taste interesting details at greater leisure.

For anybody wondering, there will not be another Friday the 13th before exactly half a year transpires, in June 2025. To keep your whistle wet until then, this week’s financial Term of Art is: Key Money.

😎 MARKET MOOD

As 2024 edges toward its finale, the markets feel like a high-stakes poker table. The Federal Reserve is shuffling rate cuts, ready to deal another 25 bps, even as inflation’s stubborn 3.3% core figure looms like the house edge. Across the Atlantic, Europe limps forward, weighed down by political fragmentation and industrial malaise, while China’s Politburo teases fiscal firepower that investors dismiss as a bluff—too little, too late.

🌏 Asia

🇨🇳 China’s policy makers showed up with promises of fiscal “spice” and monetary “sweetness,” but the mix tasted flat. Sure, Shanghai started the week with a minty fresh pop (+0.85%), but by Wednesday, the party was over. 🇭🇰 The Hang Seng? It’s the barfly staring into an empty glass, down 2.09%. 🇯🇵 Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei flirted with the 40,000 mark, buoyed by industrial and IT gains, but the yen reminded everyone it’s still the ice cube that could water down the whole show.

Mixologist’s Note: Call this a “Meh Mojito.” Lots of promises—sugar, lime, fresh mint—but the execution lacks zest.

🌍 Europe

Europe’s markets sashayed in with mixed reviews. 🇩🇪 The DAX (+0.34%) held its head high, propped up by autos and insurance, 🇫🇷 but the CAC 40 looked like it had been sipping yesterday’s flat bubbly, closing marginally lower (-0.15%). Retail stocks? The lemon twist in this cocktail—cut too deep and painfully sour. 🇪🇺 Meanwhile, whispers of an ECB rate cut added a touch of effervescence to the overall vibe, but let’s face it: Europe’s economy feels more like a long pour of bitters than a celebratory splash of champagne.

Mixologist’s Note: A French 75 gone wrong—stale champagne, a weak gin backbone, and lemon juice that stings. It’s drinkable, but barely.

🌎 Americas

🇺🇸 Stateside, the markets stirred up an Old Fashioned—classic, but with a twist. Small caps played the sugar cube, absorbing the rate-cut buzz, while mega-cap tech stocks like Nvidia (-2.5%) acted as the bitter dash that kept optimism in check. The labor market? A muddled orange peel—some job growth here, some unemployment uptick there. And the Fed’s likely December cut? That’s the whiskey, smooth but laced with a lingering burn of uncertainty about.

Mixologist’s Note: The Old Fashioned with a Twist of Uncertainty; too much orange—sweet and hopeful on the surface, but a bitter finish that makes you question your life choices.

🍸 The Week in a Glass

If this week were a drink, it’d be the “Hurry Up and Wait”: equal parts liquidity, volatility, and policy ambiguity, served over a giant iceberg of geopolitical risk. You sip it thinking it’s all under control, but halfway through, you realize the ice is melting too fast and watering everything down.

⏳ Erstwhile …

With all the excitement about the 29% upswing in Gold futures YTD—less than half of either Coffee or Orange Juice, but why would a mere bartender know that?—now is a good time to revisit the weekly chart published on 11.19.2024, showing the completion of a bearish harmonic butterfly and its retracement through the network of Fibonacci ripples. Yours truly had just sold some physical silver a week or so before at its recent high of ± $34/ozt., which at the time seemed a high and temporary price.

The typical correlation between the metals suggested that if Silver was due for a discount, so was Gold. Keep reading to see how the chart with its bearish forecast has played out in the 24 days since then, on lower timeframes.

💨 TRADE WINDS

The market reveals a peculiar rhythm amidst the chaos, and its virtue is that it is never wrong. Crude oil holds steady above $70, buoyed by seasonal demand and whispers of tighter supply. Gold dances near $2,700, its safe-haven allure shining brighter against global instability. Small caps rally on dovish Fed murmurs and whispers of renewed domestic strength. Tech soldiers on, fueled by AI dreams, while cautious players retreat to bonds, ever the reliable anchor in turbulent seas.

• Washington’s hint at harsher Russian oil sanctions buoyed WTI (+1.83%) but tightened the screws on emerging markets reliant on cheap energy.
• Copper sparkled (+0.3%) on early-week optimism but lost its shine as traders realized “boost consumption” doesn’t mean factories will suddenly need more wiring.
• Natural gas surged (+7.02%) on seasonal demand and geopolitics, while gold’s dalliance with $2,700 faded as risk sentiment firmed.
• Brent (+0.62%) nudged higher as OPEC hinted at further cuts. Europe braced for a cold winter, but natural gas prices fell, reflecting mild weather forecasts—a fleeting relief before the next spike.

🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦 BRICS nations had mixed fortunes.

🇮🇳 India’s central bank injected liquidity like a bartender spiking a punch bowl, while Russia held steady on oil production despite sanctions and price caps. 🇨🇳 China’s Central Economic Work Conference tried to inspire confidence with phrases like “proactive fiscal policy” and “boost consumption,” but investors weren’t buying what Beijing was pouring.

Markets were skeptical as tepid economic data drowned out the Politburo’s promises. Does Beijing actually have a playbook, or are they just writing slogans in chalk? Shanghai started the week with a flicker of optimism (+0.85%), but by midweek, it looked like a soggy fortune cookie—good intentions, poor execution.

• 🇷🇺 Russia’s energy sector shrugged off sanctions, while India’s liquidity injection signaled a “grow now, worry later” mentality.
• 🇨🇳 China’s yuan held briefly at 7.18/USD before whispers of a 2025 devaluation sent it backpedaling. Meanwhile, the yen flirted with 152 levels like a bad Tinder date—attractive at first, then exhausting.
• 🇧🇷 Brazil jacked up its Selic rate to 12.25%, warning inflation not to get too cozy.

🇺🇸🇬🇧🇨🇦🇫🇷🇩🇪🇮🇹🇯🇵 𝑮𝟕 economies stumbled through tariff threats, ECB rate cuts, and political brinkmanship, with no clear strategy other than “survive the quarter.”

🇯🇵 Japan’s Nikkei 225 (+1.21%) tried to rally behind strong industrial and IT gains but couldn’t shake off yen jitters. The Bank of Japan is now rumored to keep rates flat, clinking glasses with policymakers debating if a 4% surtax on corporate profits can fund their defense ambitions. Pro tip: raising taxes on an export-reliant economy might not be the power move.

🇪🇺 Will Europe’s energy woes freeze out any recovery momentum?

Her markets managed a polite smile through gritted teeth. 🇩🇪 Germany lowered its 2025 GDP forecasts, blaming “structural challenges” (read: over-reliance on autos and no one buying EVs). The DAX (+0.34%) powered forward thanks to autos and insurance, but it felt more like a desperate sprint than a confident stride.

🇫🇷 Macron scrambled to replace his PM, while French retail stocks got whiplash from political uncertainty. Can he pull off another political Houdini act? 🇬🇧 Across the channel, the UK’s RICS housing data showed its strongest improvement since 2022, which, let’s be honest, is like bragging about finding a fiver in a pants pocket.

🇪🇺 And then there’s the ECB, delicately teasing another rate cut. It’s like adding sugar to a burnt espresso—it might help, but the bitterness lingers.

🇺🇸 In the U.S., the vibe was part victory lap, part existential dread. November payrolls (+227K) came in strong, but unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, which the Fed likely sees as a soft cushion for its December rate cut pillow. U.S. policymakers whispered about tougher sanctions on Russian oil—because, clearly, the world’s energy markets weren’t volatile enough already. 🇦🇷 Argentina speculated on fiscal policy pivots as markets watched with popcorn.

🤨 First Date Questions to Break the Ice:

1. With natural gas spiking and OPEC playing coy, will energy prices anchor inflation or destabilize supply chains further?
2. As the Fed, ECB, and BoJ dance around rate cuts, will monetary easing provide clarity or just add to the noise?
3. Europe’s weather forecast is clear for now, but one cold snap could send energy markets into a frenzy.
4. Will small caps keep their rally, or is this just a sugar high?
5. Can Brazil’s rate hike actually cool inflation without crushing growth?

On the daily chart, the price action of Gold since the peak of the pattern shows an immediate downward reaction on contact with the Fibonacci ripples. A continuation of the implied trend would indicate a second round of profit-taking as the smart money looks for accumulation opportunities elsewhere. An even shorter timeframe would reveal more granular detail for those who actually earn their beer-money trading the price action and not the underlying commodity.

⛯ SECTOR SPOTLIGHT

This week felt like last call before a long night of introspection. Each sector brought its own energy to the table—some dazzling like a well-lit martini glass, others brooding like a forgotten pint of stout. Every customer tells a story, every glass holds a hint of truth, and every sip carries a risk.

💋 The Cocktail Napkin Menu:

• Tech: The AI Martini
• Energy: The Crude Manhattan
• Autos: The EV Negroni
• Financials: The Flat Whiskey Sour
• Retail: The Soggy Mojito

📡 Tech

🍏 The tech sector swaggered in like the life of the party, wearing the confidence of Broadcom’s (+14%) AI-driven earnings and the allure of Apple reclaiming its throne as the most valuable company. But just as the martini’s first sip can surprise you with its potency, the sector showed cracks in its glossy facade. Nvidia (-2.5%) and Micron (-4.7%) stumbled on geopolitical jitters, as China’s regulatory investigations raised the specter of an export-war hangover.

📱 The semiconductor space, the olive in this martini, remains under threat. U.S.-China tensions over critical metals like gallium and germanium act as the bitter vermouth, and whispers of further supply chain disruptions threaten to overshadow tech’s dazzling AI narrative.

🍸 The “AI Martini” is a drink best sipped with caution. The first taste is cool and intoxicating, but it’s kinda spendy and the deeper (in debt) you go, the more the metallic tang of export controls hits your palate.

⚡️ Energy

🃏 Energy markets played their usual role as the bar’s wildcard, spilling drama all over the floor. Crude oil saw a firm footing this week, with WTI (+1.83%) and Brent (+0.62%) buoyed by speculation of harsher U.S. sanctions on Russian oil. Natural gas took center stage, soaring 7% as seasonal demand kicked in, amplified by geopolitical whispers of a colder-than-expected winter in Europe.

🛢️ OPEC hinted at more production cuts but left traders guessing whether the next round of drinks would come with a price spike or a soft pour. Meanwhile, Europe’s energy grid balanced precariously, with forecasts of mild weather offering fleeting respite from what could still become a stormy winter.

🍸 The energy sector is the “Crude Manhattan” that everyone likes orders but few actually finish. Rich, layered, and full of heat, it satisfies in small doses, but too much can leave you dizzily looking for an outlet.

🚗 Autos

🇪🇺 European automakers wore a brave face this week, with the DAX auto segment (+0.7%) managing gains amid a slowing global EV push. 🇩🇪 Volkswagen hinted at cost cuts, layoffs, and a 10% drop in production, underscoring how poorly the EV cocktail is being received by consumers unwilling to pay premium prices for lackluster range and sparse charging stations. 🇺🇸 Meanwhile, Tesla’s price wars loomed in the background, threatening to flatten margins across the industry.

Autos are caught in transition, trying to reinvent themselves while clinging to what worked in the past.

🍸 The EV Negroni is a drink for optimists—a bold mix of tradition (internal combustion engines), bitter realities (supply chain disruptions), and modern aspirations (electric vehicles)—struggles to find a cohesive flavor. It’s beautiful to look at, bittersweet to drink, and leaves a sour aftertaste.

🏦 Financials

Banks and financial institutions showed up late to the party, and frankly, they should have stayed home. The looming specter of Fed rate cuts left financials nursing the sour notes of tighter margins and slowing loan demand. Small-cap banks saw a flicker of hope as regional economies showed strength, but the bigger players like JPMorgan prepared for the long grind of a lower-rate environment.

💳 Credit markets added another layer of tension. Rising corporate bankruptcies hinted at cracks in the foundation, even as equities held steady. It’s a tough balancing act—like adding too much lemon juice to a whiskey sour and hoping no one notices.

🍸 The financial sector is the Flat Whiskey Sour that’s been sitting too long—lacking the zing of fresh opportunity. It’s that drink you tolerate, not the one you enjoy, whose familiar aftertaste reminds you that the worst is yet to come.

🛍️ Retail

🥺 Retail had a rough week, especially in Europe. Inditex and Zalando slumped, pulling the sector down as energy prices loomed over consumer sentiment. Holiday sales in the U.S. offered a glimmer of hope, but it’s too early to toast to success. With inflation pinching budgets and Black Friday buzz fading, retailers are leaning heavily on December to salvage what’s shaping up to be a lukewarm quarter.

🍸 Retail is the Soggy Mojito you regret ordering. Too much ice, not enough kick, and a garnish that promises way too much to be true. It’s a bit of harmless fun for the inexperienced, maybe too harmless for the pragmatist in search of opportunity.

🎲 RISK RADAR

🌋 Geopolitical Uncertainty – The World’s Fuse is Getting Shorter

🤨 Nowadays the risks are mounting faster than rate cuts can calm them. 🇺🇸 With CPI data and Fed moves just around the corner, the market’s next act promises as much drama as volatility. 🇮🇱 The Middle East simmers ahead of the next act of violence. 🇮🇷 Now that Syria has fallen, Israel will adopt an even more flirtatious attitude to Iran. 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Russia and Ukraine remain locked in a bloody deadlock, and trade wars flash ominously on the Pacific horizon. 🇨🇳 China tightens its grip on critical minerals while the U.S., with a new administration waiting in the wings, reshuffles its tariff strategy. Every move feels like a risky gamble, where even the strongest hand could falter under pressure.

Any escalation—be it another pipeline attack or trade war volley—could amplify supply chain disruptions and energy price volatility.

• Commodities: Oil prices are poised to rally, with Brent eyeing $75 if supply chains take another hit. Gold, the eternal safe haven, looks ready to break out above $2,700/ozt..
• Equities: Industrial stocks and trade-reliant sectors will bear the brunt of geopolitical spillovers.

Inflation vs. Central Bank Policies – Cutting Rates, Raising Eyebrows

🏦 Central banks are playing both fireman and arsonist, trying to douse inflation with rate cuts while hoping the embers don’t reignite.

🇺🇸 The Fed is prepping a 25 bps rate cut for December, all while U.S. core inflation clings stubbornly to 3.3%, like a guest who won’t leave after the party. 🇪🇺 Europe’s ECB, meanwhile, is in a similar bind: inflation is stabilizing, but the economy is limping toward stagnation. 🇯🇵 Japan’s BoJ is the odd one out, still debating whether to finally tighten or just keep writing haikus about yield-curve control.

If central banks misfire, they could either reignite inflation or push the economy into a deflationary coma.

• 🛡️ Bonds: Volatility reigns supreme, as yield curves steepen and traders second-guess rate trajectories.
• 📊 Equities: Growth-heavy sectors like tech are vulnerable to any inflation surprise.

🛠️ Labor Market Pressures – The Canary in the Coal Mine is Gasping

Central banks wanted wage growth to cool; now they’re getting their wish, along with a side of recession risk.

The U.S. labor market is officially wobbling. Unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, and long-term jobless claims are rising faster than holiday debt. Europe’s labor market isn’t faring much better; industrial production has plateaued, and wage pressures are making central bankers sweat. Everyone wants a soft landing, but the runway looks increasingly bumpy.

Slower job growth could gut consumer spending, dragging GDP into negative territory.

• 🛍️ Retail and Discretionary: Vulnerable to reduced consumer appetite; holiday sales may offer a temporary sugar high but no lasting relief.
• 💪🏻 Growth Equities: Underwhelming employment metrics could weigh on earnings expectations.

😫 Corporate Financial Stress – A Slow-Motion Train Wreck

Leverage was a party when rates were near zero; now it’s the hangover that no one wants to admit.

😷 Corporate America’s financial health is starting to unravel, with bankruptcy filings ticking up across leveraged sectors like real estate and retail. Rising interest rates are pressuring balance sheets, while souring consumer sentiment adds insult to injury. High-yield bonds, once a speculative playground, are now looking like a deathtrap.

A surge in corporate defaults could freeze credit markets, choking off the oxygen supply for struggling businesses.

• 💳 Banks: Expect higher loan-loss provisions to weigh on earnings, with small and mid-sized banks most exposed.
• 🛡️ High-Yield Bonds: Credit spreads are widening, making risk-off plays in fixed income.

💸 Currency Volatility and Trade Wars – The Dollar is a Frenemy

🏛️ Everyone hates the strong dollar—except the U.S. Treasury, which secretly loves how it keeps inflation in check. The U.S. dollar continued climbing this week, supported by the expectation of a December rate cut. But its strength is suffocating emerging markets, with dollar-denominated debt turning into a noose. China’s yuan flirted with devaluation, adding to the trade war drama as the U.S. hinted at new tariffs.

Sharp currency moves could destabilize global trade flows and slash corporate profit margins.

• 🚢 Export-Heavy Sectors: Manufacturing and industrials are particularly vulnerable to rising input costs.
• 🫠 Emerging Markets: Brace for capital outflows and weaker equities as the dollar flexes its muscle.

⚽️ Playbook – Trust Nobody

The barman has been accused of being a bot, but if that were true then he would take a moment to try to look smart with a remark like “Long Gold and Oil, because both remain ultimate safe havens as geopolitical and inflationary pressures mount.” It’s more like he uses a cash register to record transactions, but he doesn’t let it set prices or extend credit. A Large Language Model (what laypersons mistakenly call “artificial intelligence”) did, however, offer that advice based on headlines and other text-based analysis, which only goes to show how little you can afford to believe what you read.

The hand-crafted in-house 1h chart of Gold (XAUUSD) poured exclusively at the Maker’s Market Dossier shows Trend Exhaustion in the hoped-for recovery, which makes sense since something’s gotta give. At first glance it might look more like an accident on golf pants than a price chart, but on closer inspection, the overlapping color code reveals attractive and repulsive nodes in spacetime … read that again if you’ve had too much—or too little—to drink.

Ultimately, you get what you pay for. AI stocks do have profit potential for swing traders with an edge, however the tech itself can be a bad risk manager and an even worse prospector, if you let it. Sooner or later, if not already, an enterprising Natural Language Programmer will encode an LLM to spit out pure Dumb Money advice, only to profit by doing the opposite.

Besides going Long on Gold, other artificial “wisdom” included to Short the Emerging Markets via an ETF, with the rationale that Dollar strength and currency instability spell trouble for EM economies. If that turns out to be the case, would that not push the Gold price down, not up? Either that, or else the inverse relation between metal and fiat paper (or digits) is broken.

👀 WATCHLISTS

🌼 Commodities

Here’s where the cocktail gets bold: cocoa skyrocketed 15%, delivering the kind of sugar rush that left traders wide-eyed. Supply fears in West Africa turned this commodity into the espresso martini of the week, as weather woes and logistical snarls in the Ivory Coast and Ghana stoked speculative buying. Corn joined the bullish binge with modest gains driven by robust export demand and solid technical indicators, though it ended the week on a bearish note as U.S. crop yield fears eased.

Copper’s cocktail this week was equal parts oversupply and despair, garnished with a razor-thin margin. Smelting treatment charges, the lifeblood of refiners, are circling the drain—plummeting to $21.25 per metric ton for 2025. That’s not just a record low; it’s a capitulation. The smelting industry in China, already bloated with overcapacity, is now a knife fight in a phone booth. Global mine output is set to grow 2% in 2024, meaning more concentrate will flood a market where smelters are cutting each other’s throats just to stay solvent.

Add weak Chinese PMI data, and you’ve got a metal that’s forgotten how to shine. Once the bellwether for economic vitality, copper now signals a global economy stuck in neutral, choking on manufacturing stagnation. Oversupply isn’t just a problem—it’s a noose, and the red metal’s price is dangling precariously. Copper bulls better pray for a turnaround, or this mix gets uglier.

The Technical Speculator, who is also your humble mixologist, concocts the delicacies of his trade with a Secret Blend of Herbs and Spices.

⚒️ Metals

• 🥇 Gold (GC1!): 2,675.80 per oz ▼ (-1.24%) – Declined as a stronger U.S. dollar and higher bond yields reduced demand for the safe-haven metal.
• 🥈 Silver (SI1!): 31.03 per oz ▼ (-1.87%) – Fell sharply, reflecting concerns over slowing industrial demand and dollar strength.
• 🥉 Copper (HG1!): 4.1970 per lb ▼ (-1.12%) – Weakened on fears of subdued Chinese demand despite global energy transition tailwinds.
• 🥇/🥈 Gold-Silver Ratio: 86.29 ▲ (+0.64%) – Indicates silver underperformed gold as industrial metals faced bearish sentiment.
• 🥇/🥉 Gold-Copper Ratio: 637.76 ▲ (+0.12%) – Marginal increase reflects copper’s relative weakness compared to gold amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

⚡️ Energy

• 🛢️ Crude Oil (WTI): 70.445 per bbl ▲ (+1.42%) – Rose on Middle East tensions and OPEC+ supply constraints, offsetting demand slowdown concerns.
• 🛢️ Brent Crude (BRN): 74.045 per bbl ▲ (+1.68%) – Climbed as geopolitical risks continued to support a risk premium in global oil markets.
• 𐂕 Natural Gas (NG1!): 3.280 per MMBtu ▼ (-5.07%) – Dropped sharply amid warmer-than-expected winter forecasts reducing near-term heating demand.
• ⛽ Gasoline (RBOB): 2.806 per gallon ▲ (+1.01%) – Gained slightly due to refinery outages tightening supply in key regions.
• ♣️ Coal (API2): 112.65 per ton ▼ (-0.09%) – Marginal decline as European coal markets remain under pressure from competition with natural gas.
• ⛢ Uranium (UX2!): 76.60 per lb ▶︎ (0.00%) – Stable as long-term demand outlook for nuclear energy remains intact amid global decarbonization efforts.

The monthly chart of Copper futures suggests that an all-too familiar pattern is building. In the short term, the Copper price can be expected to level off before rocketing up for one or even two more large moves. Since the price will be driven more by (lack of) supply than by (genuinely growing) demand, the attendant trend exhaustion will not be evidence of newly completed energy and IT infrastructure but of a spent global economy that almost financed its way out of decades of debt.

A real-time version of the Commodities Watchlist is available gratis via Tradingview, along with the author’s published chart-based IDEAS.

Indices

How in the world does a lone Technical Speculator keep Tabs on a Cosmopolitan Clientele without tipping his own hand?

🌏 The Asian Session

Asian stock markets possess unique characteristics that set them apart from their Western counterparts, reflecting the region’s diverse economies, regulatory environments, and cultural nuances. These markets are often characterized by higher volatility, rapid growth potential, and strong government influence.

• 🇦🇺 ASX 200: 8,296.00 ▼ (-0.41%) – Declined as resource-heavy sectors faced pressure from weaker commodity prices, particularly in iron ore.
• 🇯🇵 Nikkei 225: 39,470.22 ▼ (-0.95%) – Pulled back due to profit-taking in tech stocks and concerns over mixed signals from Bank of Japan monetary policy.
• 🇰🇷 KOSPI: 2,494.46 ▲ (+0.50%) – Rebounded, led by strong performance in semiconductor and automotive sectors amid easing domestic political turbulence.
• 🇨🇳 Shanghai Composite: 3,391.87 ▼ (-2.01%) – Declined sharply as worries about U.S.-China tech tensions and muted economic growth weighed on sentiment.
• 🇭🇰 Hang Seng: 19,916.00 ▼ (-0.28%) – Slight losses amid cautious trading in tech and property sectors following global uncertainties.
• 🇮🇳 Nifty 50: 24,768.30 ▲ (+0.89%) – Reached new highs, driven by strong economic data and robust foreign investment inflows.

🌍 The European Session

The European trading session is unique in its position as a bridge between Asian and North American markets, offering a crucial period of global market activity. For traders, the European session offers unique opportunities due to its high liquidity and the economic significance of the region. Major exchanges drive significant trading volume, while the potential for increased volatility, especially during economic data releases, overlaps with other global trading sessions.

• 🇫🇷 CAC 40: 7,409.58 ▼ (-0.15%) – Marginal losses as political uncertainty in France dampens investor sentiment, with banks and luxury stocks under pressure.
• 🇩🇪 DAX 30: 20,405.92 ▼ (-0.10%) – Slipped slightly as industrial slowdown concerns weigh on Germany’s economic outlook, particularly in the automotive sector.
• 🇬🇧 FTSE 100: 8,300.34 ▼ (-0.14%) – Declined on weak performance in energy and utility stocks, despite resilience in consumer discretionary names like JD Sports.

🌎 The American Session

American stock market indices are unique in their global influence and diversity. In terms of market structure, North American exchanges are at the forefront of technological innovation, with high-frequency trading and advanced order types playing a significant role. South American exchanges, while modernizing, generally maintain more traditional trading structures. South American indices can move independently of their Northern counterparts based on local economic and political factors, providing opportunities for global speculators.

• 🇺🇸 S&P 500: 6,051.08 ▼ (-0.17%) – Slight dip as investors remain cautious ahead of key inflation data, with defensive sectors outperforming.
• 🇺🇸 NYSE Composite Index: 20,107.00 ▶︎ (0.00%) – Flat trading amid a mixed performance across energy and industrial stocks.
• 🇺🇸 Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): 43,830.43 ▼ (-0.20%) – Declined as weaker earnings guidance from industrials weighed on sentiment.
• 🇺🇸 Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA): 16,710.00 ▼ (-0.78%) – Losses driven by disappointing airline and logistics earnings updates.
• 🇺🇸 Nasdaq Composite Index: 14,500.00 ▲ (+0.50%) – Gains fueled by strength in AI and semiconductor stocks, bucking broader market trends.
• 🇺🇸 Russell 2000: 2,346.90 ▼ (-0.60%) – Underperformed as small-cap stocks faced pressure from rising borrowing costs and macroeconomic uncertainty.

A real-time version of the Indices Watchlist is available gratis via Tradingview, along with the author’s published chart-based IDEAS.

📊 U.S. Stocks Watchlist

When the Technical Speculator was still wet behind his ears and learning to pour without looking or spilling, every firm had its runners, its eager up-and-comers who delivered the snacks and the headlines for the old timers who’d payed their dues.

• American Airlines Group (AAL): $16.92 ▼ (-1.86%) – Declined amid ongoing concerns about fuel price volatility and post-pandemic travel demand normalization.
• Apple (AAPL): $248.13 ▲ (+0.07%) – Slight gains driven by optimism over upcoming product announcements in the AI and AR space.
• Amazon (AMZN): $227.46 ▼ (-0.66%) – Pulled back following mixed reviews of recent AWS announcements and lingering macroeconomic headwinds.
• Bank of America (BAC): $45.67 ▼ (-0.89%) – Continued selling pressure due to concerns over unrealized losses on bond portfolios.
• Ford Motor Co. (F): $10.39 ▶ (0.00%) – Flat trading as markets digest EV production delays and labor cost updates.
• Intel (INTC): $20.34 ▼ (-2.12%) – Weakness attributed to delays in next-gen chip production and cautious forward guidance.
• Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA): $22.73 ▲ (+0.66%) – Gained slightly, tracking Bitcoin’s ongoing strength near $100K.
• NVIDIA (NVDA): $134.25 ▼ (-2.25%) – Declined after hitting resistance levels, with profit-taking seen in AI-related stocks.
• Tesla (TSLA): $436.23 ▲ (+4.34%) – Surged on strong delivery numbers for the Cybertruck, surpassing market expectations.
• Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD): $12.07 ▼ (-3.33%) – Declined on concerns about future streaming subscriber growth amid heightened competition.

A real-time version of the complete U.S. Stocks Watchlist is available gratis via Tradingview, along with the author’s published chart-based IDEAS.

🛡️ Bond Markets

In today’s superfast world of nearly instantaneous transactions and even quicker gratifications, there is an alternative to employing a network of Flies-on-the-Wall in all the governments of the world to learn which way the butter spreads.

🌏 ASIAN

• 🇯🇵 Japan 10-Year JGB Yield: 1.041 ▼ (-0.009%) – Declined slightly as mixed inflation data tempered expectations of a shift in the Bank of Japan’s policy.

🌍 EUROPEAN

• 🇬🇧 Gilt 10-Year Yield: 4.421 ▲ (+0.054%) – Rose modestly on stronger-than-expected UK economic data, fueling speculation of further rate hikes by the Bank of England.
• 🇫🇷 OAT 10-Year Yield: 3.046 ▲ (+0.060%) – Gained as political instability in France added mild upward pressure to yields.
• 🇩🇪 Bund 10-Year Yield: 2.262 ▲ (+0.054%) – Inched higher on inflation concerns despite signs of slowing growth in Germany.

🌍 AMERICAN

• 🇺🇸 US 2-Year Yield: 4.249 ▲ (+0.052%) – Rising as short-term yields reflect market expectations of persistent Federal Reserve tightening.
• 🇺🇸 US 10-Year Yield: 4.401 ▲ (+0.073%) – Increased as inflation concerns remain prominent in light of upcoming data releases.
• 🇺🇸 US 30-Year Yield: 4.649 ▲ (+0.061%) – Continued upward movement, reflecting shifts in long-term inflation and growth expectations.
• 🇺🇸 US 2Y-10Y Spread: 0.152 ▲ (+0.021%) – Flattened slightly, indicating a market reevaluating recession risks or rate hike pause expectations.

A real-time version of the Bond Markets Watchlist is available gratis via Tradingview, along with the author’s published chart-based IDEAS.

🔐 Cryptocurrencies

In last week’s issue of this Dossier, the Technical Speculator hinted that sector-wide profit-taking could follow on the heels of the Brad Garlinghouse appearance on the legacy media’s stalwart battleship, 60 Minutes. Prices took the predicted dump, creating a dip for some to buy, a bag for recent buyers to hold and risky hold for the smart money who took their position in the coming Altcoin Season before the election.

The Crypto News Flow tends to be as volatile as the sector’s price action. When it comes to bias, some sources show more than others. For a deeper dive into any of these various crypto projects, follow the individual links and/or consult the Technical Speculator’s Dictionary.

• ₿ Bitcoin (BTC) : $101,291.85 ▲ (+1.20%)
• Ξ Ethereum (ETH) : $3,903.48 ▲ (+0.67%)
• 🌞 Solana (SOL) : $224.20 ▼ (-1.23%)
• ⓧ XRP (XRP) : $2.43 ▲ (+3.33%)
• 🄷 Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) : $0.315 ▲ (+7.91%)
• 🄰 Algorand (ALGO) : $0.4371 ▼ (-2.26%)
• 🔗 Chainlink (LINK) : $28.68 ▲ (+0.07%)
• 🟣 Polkadot (DOT) : $9.03 ▲ (+0.39%)
• ⚡️ Amp Token (AMP) : $0.009589 ▼ (-2.80%)
• 🎷 JasmyCoin (JASMY) : $0.04654 ▲ (+10.90%)

A real-time version of the comprehensive Cryptocurrencies Watchlist is available gratis via Tradingview, along with the author’s published chart-based IDEAS.

🔮 PROFIT MARGIN

Markets are a game of anticipation, and next week offers opportunities to keeps you not just in the game but playing to win. Next week, we’ll dish out more of the moves that matter, with that palette of peculiar piquant panache that keeps the lights on.

Small caps are having their moment in the sun, outperforming their larger peers as the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle breathes new life into the risk-on trade. With valuations still trading below historical averages, these scrappy underdogs might just have more to give. Is a 10-15% upside projection in the Russell 2000 a reliable path forward, or just a short-lived sugar high fueled by temporary GDP growth bumps?

Then there’s the disinflation playbook—retail and housing are trying their best to make a comeback. Amazon looks like the golden child of e-commerce, riding holiday sales momentum and a rebound in consumer sentiment. Are rate cuts and easing inflation enough to turn these sectors into genuine winners—or if they’re just running on borrowed time?

Emerging markets are where the narrative might get juicy. The dollar is flexing its muscles abroad, which is usually not a sign of strength but of weakness. And yet, Russia and China may see their interests lying on forking paths in the coming year, and beyond. The angles seem endless, but the opportunities are eminently manageable.

🌊 Be Liquid . . .

© adrian dyer 2024

🤔 CAVEAT EMPTOR

This is NOT financial advice. The intention here is to learn from Real-World capital flow how to recognize, measure and profit from the price action of various asset classes in these tense times. Only YOU can select a strategy that suits your temperament, your tolerance for risk and your time horizon, such that no content for public consumption will coincide with your strategy exactly … assuming that you have a strategy. Participation in financial asset markets is intrinsically risky; long-term profitable navigators agree that you should never risk more buying power than you are willing and able to lose. Also, beware of fraudulent actors. Since counter-party risk is real, strive to learn from your mistakes and others’. Finally and most importantly, what others feel, you will feel, ergo study your emotions, but do not trust them or obey them.