NBA Eastern Conference First Round Playoff Predictions

By: Layth Dahman

The playoffs start on August 17, 2020. Here are my Eastern Conference playoff predictions for the first round:

(1) Milwaukee Bucks (56-17) vs (8) Orlando Magic (33-40)

Season Series: Bucks won series 4-0

November 1: Bucks won 123-91

December 9: Bucks won 110-101

December 28: Bucks won 111-100

February 8: Bucks won 111-95

Prediction: Bucks win series 4-0

Key Matchup: Brook Lopez vs Nikola Vučević

The Orlando Magic is a team that has been decimated with injuries and doesn`t have much of a chance to win a game in this series. Michael Carter-Williams is out with a foot injury, Al-Farouq Aminu is out with a torn meniscus, Aaron Gordon may miss some time with a hamstring injury, Jonathan Isaac is out with a torn ACL. The Bucks have most of their key guys and don`t have any serious injuries.

The Bucks are better on both ends of the floor. The Bucks rank 8th in offensive rating scoring 108.6 points per game per 100 possesions and 1st in defense rating allowing only 102.7 points per game per 100 possesions, while the Magic rank 23rd in offensive rating scoring 108.6 points per game per 100 possesions and 11th in defensive rating allowing 109.2 points per game per 100 possesions. The Bucks move the ball well, ranking them 6th in assists per game with 25.9 and 11th in assists percentage at 18.1 percent. Their ball movement is facilitated by the pressure that Giannis Antetokounmpo draws, causing defenses to collapse, leaving wide-open shooters from mid-range and three-point range. With Jonathan Isaac being out of the lineup after tearing his ACL, the Magic don`t have anyone who can contain Giannis Antetokounmpo. Isaac was a major contributor to the Magic ranking 11th in defense. He gave them size at the defensive end at 6 feet 11 inches, and versatility. He can guard positions one through five. Isaac is an elite defender who has length on the defensive end with a wingspan of 7 feet 1 inch, enabling him to alter shots. On defense, he had a defensive rating of 105.7 to go along with 2.3 blocks and 1.6 steals. Had he stayed healthy, he would have been in contention for a Defensive Player of the Year Award, and an All NBA Defense Team.

The best option for the Magic is to assign Wes Iwundu to guard Antetokounmpo. Iwundu is a lengthy defender with a wingspan of 7 feet 1 inch who puts pressure on his opponents on the defensive end. He has a defensive rating of 104.6. The Magic`s alternative option would be double-teaming Antetokounmpo, but the trade-off would be allowing the other Bucks players to get wide-open threes. This would be counter-productive for the Magic as the analytics show that the three-point shot is the most efficient shot in basketball, and the Bucks have more shooters than the Magic causing them to be unable to keep up. The Bucks rank 4th in the league in three-pointers attempted per game at 38.9, and 3rd in three-point makes by making 13.8 per game, while the Magic rank 19th in three-pointers attempted per game with 32.2 and rank 22nd in three-pointers made at 11.1 per game.

This will be a good series for the Bucks guards to elevate their play and build confidence for later series since Magic lacks guard play. In past playoff runs, Bucks guards Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton have been inconsistent, and this is the series to solidify themselves and get rid of their reputations from past playoff series. Eric Bledsoe needs to be aggressive and attack the rim rather than settle for jump shots. D. J. Augustin doesn`t have the defensive quickness to keep up with Bledsoe`s quickness on the offensive end.

For the Magic to avoid the sweep, they need to be a sounder offensive team. The Magic rank 27th with a field goal percentage of 44.4 percent and rank 26th in three-point percentage with a percentage of 34.3. The Magic are going to need Nikola Vučević to dominate on the offensive and defensive end. The Magic will go as far as Vučević takes them. He had a net rating of -23.2 last postseason making him a huge liability on both ends of the floor for the Magic. Last season, in his first-ever playoffs, he struggled against an elite defensive Raptors team. He averaged 11.2 points per game, 3 assists per game, and 8 rebounds per game. He was inefficient from the field and three. He shot 36 percent and shot an abysmal 23 percent from three. This is completely different from his play in the regular season. His points per game from that regular season dropped by 9.6 points per game, and his rebounds dropped by 4 rebounds per game. There was a huge drop-off also in his field goal percentage and three-point percentage. His field goal percentage dropped by 15.6 percent and his three-point percentage dropped by 13.3 percent.

This playoffs, Vučević has an even more daunting matchup by going up against the Bucks’ loaded frontcourt of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez. They are more athletic and have more size than the Raptors’ frontcourt that Vučević faced last season. This season, Antetokounmpo has dominated on the defensive end and has solidified himself as the favorite to win the Defensive Player of the Year Award. He is the anchor for the Bucks defense. He has a defensive rating of 97.4 to go along with 1 block and 1 steal per game. Antetokounmpo also limits extra possession and second-chance points with his elite rebounding skills. He is averaging 13.6 rebounds per game, making him the second-best rebounder in the league, and has turned the Bucks into the best rebounding team in the league. Lopez on the defensive end has a defensive rating of 100. He can protect the rim and is averaging 2.4 blocks per game ranking him second in blocks. On the defensive end, Vučević needs to improve. Last season in the playoffs, he struggled on the defensive end. He had a defensive rating of 121.1. He was a significantly worse defender in the playoffs, allowing an extra 15.1 points per 100 possessions. Vučević struggled to guard the perimeter last season in the playoffs which he is going to have to do this playoff run to stay on the floor. The Bucks have shooting bigs and he is going to have to be able to close out on Lopez.

The Magic also need Evan Fournier to be able to make shots and defend. Fournier is averaging 18.5 points per game with a shooting percentage of 46.7 from the field, and a three-point percentage of 39.9 percent ranking him 33rd in the league in three-point percentage. They will need him to neutralize Khris Middleton. They also need Terrence Ross to make shots. He is the only one on the Magic who can make tough contested shots from mid-range and three-point range. He is averaging 14.7 points per game on 40.3 percent shooting from the field, and a three-point percentage of 35.1.

(2) Toronto Raptors (53-19) vs (7) Brooklyn Nets (35-37)

Season Series: Raptors won series 3-1

December 14: Raptors won 110-102

January 4: Raptors won 121-102

February 8: Raptors won 119-118

February 12: Nets won 101-91

Prediction: Raptors win series 4-1

Key Matchup: Fred VanVleet vs Caris LeVert

Even though the Brooklyn Nets are missing a lot of players, they are a team not to be taken lightly. They are missing Spencer Dinwiddie, Taurean Prince, DeAndre Jordan due to COVID-19. They are missing Kyrie Irving after a season-ending shoulder injury, Kevin Durant with a torn Achilles, and potentially Jamal Crawford with a hamstring injury. They play hard and fans and media lowering expectations for them have helped them significantly, by putting less pressure on them. However, they are playing the defending champion Toronto Raptors who have more experience, championship pedigree, star power, and depth.

The Raptors are better than the Nets on both the offensive and defensive end. The Raptors rank 14th in offense with 111.4 points per game per 100 possessions and rank 2nd in defense by allowing only 105.1 points per game per 100 possessions, while the Nets are ranked 22nd in offense scoring 109 points per game per 100 possessions and 10th in defense allowing 109.6 points per game per 100 possessions.

The Nets are going to struggle on the offensive end against the elite Raptors defense. The Raptors are versatile and communicate well on the defensive end. The Raptors are the best defense in contesting shots. Opponents shot the 2nd worst field goal percentage against them at 42.8 percent and the worst three-point percentage at 33.7 percent. The thing that makes the Raptors defense good is their defense lead to offense. They rank 2nd in steals with 8.8 per game, which creates opportunities in transition leading to fast breakpoints. The Nets need to minimize their turnovers in this series. They rank 20th in turnovers with 14.5 turnovers per game. If they turn over the ball, the Raptors will execute off their mistakes and make them pay. The Nets are going to be shooting a lot of threes against the Raptors since they don't have many players who can score inside. The Nets rank fifth in three-point attempts with 38.1 and 9th in three-point makes with 13.1 per game. The Raptors need to make sure they close out on three-point shooters like they have been doing all year.

The main advantage the Nets have over the Raptors is rebounding. The Raptors rank 10th in rebounding grabbing 45.4 rebounds per game, while the Nets rank 2nd in rebounding in the NBA grabbing 47.9 rebounds per game. The Nets outrebound the Raptors by a margin of +2.5 which will result in extra possession for the Nets. No Raptors bigs are going to stop Jarrett Allen from getting his rebounds. Allen is averaging 9.6 rebounds this season. With Allen getting more minutes due to Deandre Jordan being out, he has been averaging 11 rebounds per game in the bubble. He ranks 15th in contested rebounds with 4.3 per game and 10th in offensive rebounds with 3.1 per game. The Raptors have the flexibility to make the adjustment of benching Marc Gasol and starting Serge Ibaka if the rebounding gets out of hand since Ibaka is a better rebounder. Gasol is averaging 6.3 rebounds per game while Ibaka is averaging 8.2 rebounds per game.

The Raptors need to find a way to contain Caris LeVert in this series. LeVert has been dominating the Raptors this season. In three games he averaged 23.3 points per game, 3 assists per game, and 3.3 rebounds per game on 62.6 percent shooting from the field, and 61.7 percent from three in 28.3 minutes per game. LeVert is able to get what he wants against smaller Raptors guards with Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet being 6ft tall. LeVert is able to shoot over the Raptors small backcourt. He can create his shot off the dribble from inside, mid-range, and three-point range. He is aggressive driving to the rim. LeVert has elevated his game to another level in the bubble averaging 25 points per game, 6.6 assists per game, and 5 rebounds per game. He has a field goal percentage of 47.5 percent and a three-point percentage of 21.8 percent. This is a different kind of LeVert the Raptors are seeing. This time the Raptors are facing a more aggressive and confident LeVert who thrives at being the number one option.

The Raptors need Pascal Siakam to step up and be more assertive. There has been a regression in Siakam’s play before and after the hiatus. In the bubble, Siakam has averaged 16.9 points per game, 2.3 assists per game, and 5.7rebounds per game with a field goal percentage of 39.7 percent and a three-point percentage of 35.3 percent. Siakam needs to be more aggressive and score inside. Siakam is at his best when he takes the ball to the rim. He has been averaging 6.4 attempts per game from three in the bubble. He should limit his attempts to 4 three-pointers per game and shoot fewer contested jump shots. If Siakam continues slumping, the series will extend longer than it should be.

(3) Boston Celtics (48-24) vs (6) Philadelphia 76ers (43-30)

Season Series: 76ers won series 3-1

October 23: 76ers won 107-93

December 12: 76ers won 115-109

January 9: 76ers won 109-98

February 1: Celtics won 116-95

Prediction: Celtics win series 4-2

Key Matchup: Joel Embiid vs Daniel Theis and Enes Kanter

The Boston Celtics should be the favorites to win this series, but it won`t be easy. The Celtics have the advantage on the offensive rating ranking 4th by scoring 113.2 points per game per 100 possessions, and on the defensive end, ranking 4th allowing 106.9 points per game per 100 possessions, while the 76ers rank 13th in offense scoring 111.6 points per game per 100 possessions and rank 8th in defense, allowing 109.2 points per game per 100 possessions . On the offensive end, the Celtics have four potential 20 points per game scorers, making it tough for the 76ers to match their scoring. They are Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kemba Walker, and Gordon Hayward.

Jayson Tatum is averaging 23.4 points per game on 45 percent shooting from the field, and 40.3 percent from three ranking him 22nd in three-point percentage. Tatum can score in many ways from inside, mid-range, and three-point range by creating his own shot from the dribble, catching, and shooting. Tatum also has a lethal post-fadeaway jump shot that he can shoot over smaller defenders.

Jaylen Brown is averaging 20.3 points per game. He is shooting 48.1 percent from the field and 38.2 percent from three. He is a more aggressive player then Tatum while Tatum has more of a finesse game. Brown scores by being aggressive in driving to the rim, and then operates from mid-range and three-point range. He can also score in catch and shoot situations and create his shot off the dribble.

Kemba Walker is averaging 20.4 points per game. He has a field goal percentage of 42.5 percent and 38.1 percent from three. Walker can create his shot off the dribble from inside, mid-range, and three-point range. Walker also has a quick first step which makes him lethal at the rim. The only concern with Walker is playing on a bad knee, but that has not limited him in the bubble so far. Walker is willing to take a step back and allow Brown and Tatum to get more touches and shots.

Even though Hayward scores 17.5 points per game he can get 20 points or more on any given night. He moves well without the ball and can also create his own shot. He is efficient shooting 50 percent from the field and 38.3 percent from three.

The 76ers are going to miss Ben Simmons' defensive versatility in this series. Without Simmons in this series, the 76ers don`t have any specific player who can slow down the Celtics guards and wing players. The next best defender the 76ers have is Josh Richardson. He has length on the defensive end with a wingspan of 6ft10, and he can put pressure on opponents to make tough shots. Richardson is slightly worse than Simmons in getting into passing lanes and intercepting passes. Simmons averages 2.1 steals while Richardson averages 1 steal per game. The Celtics are too loaded in the backcourt for just Richardson to handle. Someone other than Richardson is going to have to step up on defense and help guard the perimeter.

In this matchup, the 76ers need to take advantage of the Celtics' lack of size and interior play. Embiid should be playing inside focusing on posting up and scoring inside. If the Celtics double team Embiid, he can pass out to an open shooter. Embiid is going to outrebound the Celtics bigs on the offensive and defensive end with their lack of interior play. The Celtics will have Daniel Theis and Enes Kanter mostly guarding Embiid. The Celtics should consider starting Kanter as he gives them more size and rebounding. Kanter was a big piece last year in the playoffs. He averaged 11.4 points per game and 9.6 rebounds in 28.8 minutes last year in the playoffs. He can help neutralize the rebounding against Embiid and can give the Celtics extra possessions with his rebounding. Kanter grabs the same amount of offensive rebounds as Embiid at 2.8 per game in 12.6 fewer minutes. Kanter grabs 4.6 defensive rebounds, while Embiid grabs 8.9 defensive rebounds per game. If Kanter plays more minutes he can neutralize Embiid grabbing rebounds.

For offense, the 76ers are going to rely heavily on Josh Richardson and Tobias Harris to create shots for themselves and others. They are the only players for the 76ers that can create their shot off the dribble. They need to be playmakers with Ben Simmons out due to a knee injury. They also have to be the second and third scorers. Harris has proven to be a second scorer. He is averaging 19.6 points per game on an efficient shooting of 47.1 percent from the field and 36.7 percent from three. He is able to create his shot off the dribble from inside, mid-range, and the three-point line. Josh Richardson needs to be more consistent for the 76ers to have a chance to win this series. He has shown flashes this season of being able to do that but has been inconsistent at times. He is averaging 13.7 points per game. He needs to be more efficient from the field and three-point range. He is shooting 43 percent from the field and 34.1 percent from three.

(4) Indiana Pacers (45-28) vs (5) Miami Heat (44-29)

Season Series: Heat won series 3-1

December 27: Heat won 113-112

January 8: Heat won 122-108

August 10: Heat won 114-92

August 14: Pacers won 109-92

Prediction: Heat win series 4-1

Key Matchup: T. J. Warren vs Jimmy Butler

The Miami Heat should be able to beat the Pacers in 5 games. The Pacers have a lot of players who are injured. Currently, the Pacers are missing Jeremy Lamb with a torn ACL and meniscus, Domantas Sabonis with plantar fasciitis, and T. J. Warren may be limited with plantar fasciitis. The Heat have no significant injuries.

The Heat is a better offensive team, but the Pacers are a better defensive team. The Heat rank 7th in offense scoring 112.5 points per game per 100 possessions and rank 12th in defense allowing 109.7 points per game per 100 possessions, while the Pacers rank 18th in offense scoring 110.1 points per game per 100 possessions and rank 6th in defense allowing 107.9 points per game per 100 possessions.

The Pacers have struggled this year against the Heat in the regular season. In the 3 regular-season games that the Heat played where they were not resting players, the Heat scored an average of 116 points per game. The Pacers allowed the Heat to score 8.1 points more than other teams usually score on them. The Pacers have also struggled with their offense in this series, scoring an average 104 points in three games. That is a margin of 6.1 fewer points scored against the Heat than they usually score against other opponents. The Pacers are going to struggle in this series keeping up with the Heat`s three-point shooting. The Heat are an elite three-point shooting team. They rank 8th in three-pointers made per game with 13.3 and rank 10th in three-pointers attempted with 35.1 per game. The Heat take a high amount of three-pointer with a three-point frequency of 41.9 ranking them 7th in the league and are efficient ranking them 2nd in three-point percentage at 38 percent. Meanwhile, the Pacers are not known as a three-point shooting team and rank second last with three-pointers made at 10.2 per game. They also attempt the fewest three-pointers in the league at 28 per game and have a three-point frequency of 31.8 percent which ranks last. They are average when it comes to their three-point percentage and rank 14th with a three-point percentage of 36 percent.

Even though the Heat rank 12th in defense, they solidified their perimeter defense at the trade deadline by acquiring Andre Iguodala and Jae Crowder making them an elite defensive team. They have Jimmy Butler, Andre Iguodala, Jae Crowder, Derrick Jones Jr., and Bam Adebayo who can all guard opposing players and make it tough for the Pacers. Jimmy Butler has a defensive rating of 108 to go along with 1.8 steals and 0.6 blocks. His ability to intercept passes and steal the ball sparks the fast break for the Heat. The Heat is a better defensive team with Butler on the court as they allow 1.7 fewer points per 100 possessions. Andre Iguodala can lock down players in big moments of the game. He can intercept passes and is battle-tested on the defensive end in the playoffs. He has a defensive rating of 108.8 to go along with 1 steal and 1 block per game. Jae Crowder is a three and d player. He plays with intensity on the defensive end. Since his trade, his defensive rating has improved to 110.2 which is an improvement by allowing 2.4 fewer points. Derrick Jones Jr. athleticism helps him on the defensive end. He is able to intercept passes, and he moves well on the defensive. Bam Adebayo is an elite perimeter and interior defender. He is the best defender on the Heat and is multidimensional. He can block shots, get steals, and put pressure on opposing players. He is one of the few centers in the league who is able to guard the pick and roll and has defensive quickness. He has a defensive rating of 107.7 to go along 1 steal and 1 block per game.

In this matchup, T. J. Warren has struggled. In three games against the Heat, Jimmy Butler has outplayed Warren on the offensive and defensive end. In three games this season against the Heat Warren is averaging 10.3 points per game, 1 assist per game, and 4.3 rebounds per game. He has been inefficient shooting a lethargic 32.2 percent from the field on 8.3 attempts per game and 19.3 percent from three on 3.6 attempts per game. In the second game against the Heat, Warren got ejected because of an altercation with Butler. In this matchup, Butler averaged 17.6 points per game, 6 assists per game, 8.6 rebounds per game, and 2 steals per game. He was aggressive in getting to the free-throw line shooting 91.3 percent on 10 free throw attempts per game. He was more efficient and making shots in the season series shooting 49.5 percent from the field on 10 attempts per game. Butler didn't take many three-pointers and operates from mid-range and inside.