Protein Trade Report

Meat production worldwide is expected to decline by 1% in 2023.

International Protein Trade News

Essfeed.com provides the latest poultry, meat, dairy, seafood, plant based, cultivated and container shipping news for manufacturers, exporters, importers, wholesalers, foodservice and retailers from farm to fork.

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Poultry & Egg News

Bird flu continues to spread through Europe forcing farmers to cull their flocks to slow the spread of the highly-contagious avian influenza on the continent. Farms in the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Spain, and Sweden have historically high numbers. Additionally, wild bird populations in Austria, Denmark, Italy, and the Netherlands have been testing positive for avian influenza since December. Swedish authorities announced they would cull around 165,000 chickens at a single farm in the southern part of the country. In the Czech Republic, it was announced this week that more than 750,000 chickens on a cluster of farms in the western part of the country were culled.

Tens of millions of birds across Europe are reportedly being kept indoors as a safeguard. France is reportedly considering widespread vaccination of its chicken and turkey populations. The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control said that an outbreak of avian influenza between October 2021 and September 2022 was the "most devastating" the continent had ever seen, with around 2,500 outbreaks reported in 37 European countries.

The Philippines have banned poultry meat, day-old chicks, and semen from Poland, Ireland, Denmark, Czech Republic, Chinese Taipei, Ecuador, Moldova, and Peru amid the outbreak of avian influenza.

As with several Latin American countries, Chile experienced a resurgence of the disease in seabirds late last year.

Read: The Latest Bird Flu News

Continued concerns raised about a feed deal between two of Europe’s largest poultry businesses (Dutch-based ForFarmers and the UK’s Boparan) will lead to higher costs for farmers, according to The UK’s Competitions and Markets Authority (CMA). The plan is to combine their 19 animal feed milling operations across the UK.

Reports suggest that British egg farmers are quitting "every week" amid soaring costs. The price of food is rising at its fastest, up to 13.3 % in December, from 12.4 % in the previous month. Inflation and the worst bird flu outbreak in the U.S. have spiked American egg prices. Egg prices are up 80% in Arizona.

Read: 2 Sisters poultry price hike warning

Minister Makozo Chikote for fisheries and livestock and agriculture Reuben Mtolo of Zambia announced the lifting of the export waiver of various agriculture products including livestock. Poultry farmers in Zambia are looking to Saudi Arabia and other markets in Sub Saharan Africa besides local and regional neighbors to sell day-old, hatching eggs and other related products for increased business and profitability despite the local currency appreciation. Poultry products, eggs, day old chicks and other chicken-related products are already being exported and consumed in East Africa and Zimbabwe, Democratic Republic of Congo -DRC and Namibia among other regional markets.

Read: “Ghana, impose high tariffs to deter poultry imports” Victor Oppon Ajay GNP-FA

Polish poultry farmers have called on the government to abandon plans of banning the use of GMO in feed from January 1, 2024, since the announcement was made on November 2, 2022. The decision to ban GMO in feed was made without any consultations with agricultural businesses and will have a huge negative impact on livestock production and farmers say that it will have devastating effects on their costs and the industry as a whole.

In Pakistan, fears have been raised that chicken meat prices will overtake beef prices due to a sharp spike in the prices due to customs authorities stopping the release of GMO soybean shipments arriving mainly from the US and Brazil, since October 2022.

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Red Meat & Dairy News

Total meat and poultry production in 2023 is expected to decline by 1% year-on-year. The sharp downturn in U.S. beef production, that is projected to last several years, is likely the start of this world meat shortage. So, with total U.S. red meat production projected to be down 3.7% in 2023. Given the growing world population, means competition for less meat.

A study by The Journal of the American Medical Association found that consumers are more prone to avoid red meat when presented with climate impact labels. 5,049 US consumers were presented participants with 14 items on a restaurant menu, including meat, chicken, plant-based entrées and salads. The menus had one of three label conditions:

1. A quick response code label on all items (control group),

2. A green low-climate impact label on chicken, fish or vegetarian items,

3. A red high-climate impact label on red meat items.

The results found 24% of consumers presented with low-climate impact labels are 10% more likely to choose a "sustainable" menu item.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations reported that livestock production accounts for 14.5% of all greenhouse gas emissions.

A survey in Japan by The Tokyo Institute of Technology and Shinshu University conducted a survey involving 4,421 beef consumers and shoppers, which found that 80% of respondents preferred Japanese-origin organic beef, were willing to pay a premium and unlikely to switch to plant-based meat or cultured meat.

Poll Results: What is the most important factor in your meat purchasing decision?

African swine fever continues to spread and cause serious production problems in Europe, Russia and most of Asia, including China. Pork production is expected to decline in Europe by nearly 8% from 2022 to the end of 2023.

Total U.S. pork production, according to the December Hogs and Pigs report, indicated a total pig population of 73.1 million, down 2% from last year. American pork exporters will have more time to send product to Philippine partners at familiar tariff rates following the December extension of existing duties rather than a potential increase.

South African pork production increased by 9,2% in 2022. However, pork producers remained under profit pressure due to high feed prices. Since March 2022, pork prices have remained at approximately six times that of the price of maize, 33% below the long-term average.

Read: 5 reason why the PORK 2023 outlook is positive

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Seafood & Aquaculture

FAO’s 2022 Biannual food outlook shows that global fisheries and aquaculture production is expected to increase by 1.2 percent in 2022 despite pressures from inflation and a slowing global economy.

Read: Seafood & aquaculture 2023 forecast

Australian seafood prices have recovered steadily since the Covid-19 pandemic began. Demand is up 30% year-on-year in December 2021, and retailers achieved strong sales again in December 2022. The Marine Stewardship Council study carried out by YouGov found five million Australians planned to eat more prawns and 62% of seafood consumers said they would seek certified sustainable prawns.

The Norwegian Seafood Council has said that Norway exported 2.9 million tonnes of seafood, equivalent to a value of NOK 151.4 billion (€14 billion), in 2022, making 2022 the 'Best Year Ever' for Norwegian seafood exports.

Vietnam seafood sector in 2022 posted a new record in export value of 11 billion USD, up 24% year-on-year and 22% higher than the year’s target of 9 billion USD. Shrimp exports hit a record $4.3bn, pangasius exports reached $2.4bn, and tuna exports were $1bn. Seafood exports to the US reached $2.1bn in 2022, China hit a record $1.8bn, up 57% year-on-year. Exports to the EU and the Republic of Korea brought in $1.3bn and $950m, respectively. Seafood exports to ASEAN countries reached 767 million USD, up 27% year-on-year. Seafood exports are expected to hold a 7% share of the total seafood exports in the global market.

China’s coastal aquaculture ponds experienced a substantial loss of 13.21 % from 9,769 km² in 2016 to 8,629 km² in 2021. Zhejiang Province decreased 38.24%, Guangdong 27.93%, Fujian 7.24% and Tianjin 2.13%. These reductions were mostly related to the policy of returning aquaculture ponds to natural wetlands.

China will stop screening frozen foods for Covid-19 contamination from 8 January after more than two years of strict pandemic testing protocols.

Read: Planet Trackers $1.8 trillion solution for sustainable fishing

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Plant Based & Cultivated Meat

Consumption of plant-based meat alternatives represented just 1.4% of the total meat category and 2.7% of retail packaged sales in 2021, the GFI reported.

The 10 countries/region leading the way for cultivated meat:

1.Singapore - the world’s first country to approve the sale of cultivated meat in December 2020.

2. Israel - recently invested $18M into a nationwide cultivated meat consortium.

3. The United States - Upside Foods received FDA GRAS, becoming the first American company to have its products deemed safe to eat.

4. The European Union - In 2020, the EU’s Farm to Fork strategy included alternative proteins as a “key area of research” for a “fair, healthy and environmentally-friendly food system”.

5. Specifically Norway and The Netherlands - Netherlands injected €60M into the Cellular Agriculture Netherlands consortium and Norway set up a five-year research project into cellular agriculture with €2M in annual public funding.

6. The United Kingdom - Government policy papers suggest that cultivated would be a part of the country’s successful post-Brexit economic plan.

7. Australia & 8. New Zealand - In Australia and New Zealand, regulators say their existing Novel Foods Standard will already be able to accommodate foods made through cell-ag tech.

9. Japan - The Japanese government has supported homegrown startup IntegriCulture, awarding it a ¥240M (US$2.2M) grant in 2020 to build its first commercial bioreactor.

10. China - Its latest five-year agricultural plan specifically included cultivated meat and “artificial protein” for the first time.

Read: Is plant based lamb meat the next big thing?

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Container Shipping

The three key elements that are important looking forward into 2023 for the sector:

1. Expected trade growth is going to be challenging due to high interest rates and inflation, reducing demand for goods.

2. Pace and size of fleet growth (according to MSI) forecasts 7% fleet growth year-on-year in both 2023 and 2024, and above average growth in 2025.

3. Issues around congestion and capacity caused by the pandemic will change with second half of 2022 seeing an extremely sharp drop in spot container freight rates, which are now much lower than contract rates agreed between shippers and lines earlier in the year.

Read: Shipping rates expected to bounce back soon

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The Protein Trade Report is sponsored by International Intrigue

Each morning our team of former diplomats scour 600+ sources to bring you the most important global news and analysis, with a cheeky twist. Join 10,000+ leaders & get the free global affairs newsletter you'll actually look forward to reading.

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