Understanding Subscription Propensity: Key Insights to Drive Revenue

Dear reader,

Have you ever wondered what truly drives a reader to subscribe?  

In an industry where content is king, understanding reader behavior is essential for publishers aiming to succeed in today’s digital age. Pioneers like Mediahuis have demonstrated that personalizing the user journey based on an individual’s likelihood or propensity to subscribe, can significantly boost subscriptions while safeguarding advertising revenue. Propensity modeling, therefore, emerges as a valuable tool for publishers, enabling them to craft strategies that not only drive conversions but also deepen their understanding of their readers. 

In today’s edition, we’ll explore how propensity modeling can boost engagement and revenue, and how using AI can maximize the potential of your data for long-term growth. 

Happy reading! 

Understanding Subcription Propensity

To effectively leverage propensity modeling insights, publishers must first understand the concept of marginal effects, which reveal how incremental changes in specific variables impact a reader's likelihood or propensity to subscribe.  

Mather Economics has developed subscription propensity models for several publishers, helping them activate these insights through their tech stack to drive revenue. In doing so we have observed how the following variables influence subscriber propensity: 

1. User Engagement (e.g., pageviews, visits, time on site, etc.) 

1. Environment (e.g., device, location, day of the week, time of day, etc.). 

1. Product (e.g., content categories, user experience, site speed, etc.). 

1. Marketing Calls-to-Action (e.g., paywall modal, newsletter offer, price/discount, nurturing pop-up, etc.) 

Our research shows that readers with a greater breadth of content consumption (i.e., engaging with different topics) tend to have a higher likelihood of subscribing. Although higher monthly visits, scroll depth, and time per visit also improve subscription rates, their impact is relatively lower. 

 Mather has also explored the relationship between paywall hits and propensity to subscribe. Interestingly, a reader’s propensity to subscribe increases with each paywall hit, but only up to a certain point (See Image 1 below). Beyond this threshold, additional paywall hits tend to decrease subscription likelihood. It should be noted that this point of diminishing returns varies across markets based on the paywall strategy, pricing models, and the quality of digital products. 

Turning Insights into Impact  

While publishers can't control variables like location or device, and product changes require long-term investment, they can more easily and quickly influence reader behavior through content and marketing strategies to boost engagement and subscription propensity. 

Media Must-Reads

• Nordic AI in Media Summit 2024: Five projects you should keep an eye on 
• Dynamic paywall testing: how FAZ is working to reach 300,000 digital subscribers by 2025 
• “Listen to young people – include them in conversations like this” 
• How newspaper giant Mediahuis aims to reach 70% digital revenue by 2030 

Looking for pricing insights? Then this is for you. 

Join us for a live panel discussion with leading publishers as they share key insights on the latest challenges and opportunities in subscription pricing, strategies for digital vs. print subscriptions, overcoming pricing fatigue while maintaining subscriber value, and key takeaways from recent experiments and A/B testing.

We appreciate you taking the time to read the second edition of our EU Digest. We trust that these insights on subscription propensity will support your acquisition strategy. Did you find this content valuable? Let us know at info@mathereconomics.com

We're always eager to hear your content suggestions— don’t forget to share them with us! 

See you next month! 

-The Mather Team