Week 6 Recap: WO!

Not so many upsets but WOW to the big one and a few AMAZING games.

1. Well first things first. The unranked and 3-2 Texas A&M beats #1 Alabama on a last second field goal. Sure, Aggieland is a major home field advantage, but I am confident that someone watching this game and not knowing who the teams were would come away thinking these were both excellent and essentially evenly match teams. I called this a long shot but it didn’t feel like that. A&M still faces ranked teams Auburn and Ole Miss but I think the confidence boost from winning this game could wind up with a season to be really proud of. Unfortunately, being in the SEC West with two conference losses, it will take another Alabama loss to get A&M in the Conference championship and only Arkansas has a chance for that to happen. It also takes Ole Miss to lose to Auburn, Miss. State to lose to Kentucky and Auburn and Auburn to lose the Iron Bowl. Each of these are nonzero possibilities but taken as a group not so much. Assuming UGA and Alabama still meet in Atlanta, the CFP committee would be rooting for the Dawgs as they could easily keep a 2-loss Alabama out but two one-loss SEC teams raises the specter that the good old boys network will work as normal and go heavy on SEC.

2. The Red River Shootout delivered. Last week I pointed out “the Longhorns have been playing well of late and OU has been winning--- but barely. OU is favored by 3.5 but the over/under is 63.5. Look for a shootout.” Who knew that you should have take a 3-digit O/U. Last year’s 4 Overtime OU win at 53-45 was the all time scoring record for this rivalry. This year ended up 55-48 in regulation. Leading 28-7 early, Longhorn fans must still be dazed and confused as to how this one got away. The answer is a new true freshman QB for OU who didn’t play any downs last year (in High School) dure to the pandemic. Should Texas lose to #12 and undefeated Oklahoma State next week they will have lost every game to a team in an adjacent state on the north side of the Red River (UL is south of the river).

3. Other UPSETS and CLOSE CALLS:

·        Boise State dominated BYU in Provo. This wasn’t close and the Cougars just looked miserable. With the prospect of an undefeated season gone, BYU fans can change their reservations from the New Year’s Day Fiesta Bowl in Phoenix to the Mediocre Independence Bowl in Shreveport. Talk about a letdown.

·        Well technically it wasn’t an upset with OLE MISS being favored at home they were ranked lower than Arkansas. The game was an amazing shootout and it came down to a an (in hindsight) bad decision by the Arkansas coach to try for two on the last play of the game instead of going into overtime. These are two fine teams and it was a wild one.

·        #3 Iowa prevailed over #4 Penn State but would almost certainly not have done so without the injury to the PSU QB. Unlike the A&M - Alabama game. I cam away from this one thinking neither of these teams was as good as they were billed. Iowa is now ranked #2 and likely to face the prevailing team among Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State, all undefeated in the Big Ten East. PSU is not technically out of that hunt and could get another bite at Iowa but it takes a mess in the remaining games as these teams play each other and only one has the opportunity to be undefeated in the conference (maybe none of them) and the really likely possibility that a 1-loss Ohio State faces Iowa State. A 1-loss Big ten champion is likely a lock for the CFP.

·        Games closer than they should have been:

·        Well, Notre Dame needed a 2-point conversion and late field goal to beat Virginia Tech. The Irish keep winning and face no remaining ranked opponents but a 1-loss Irish team doesn’t feel like a CFP contender this year given the barely there nature of the wins. That said, any one selling tickets likes the idea of Notre Dame in their Bowl game.

·        Michigan squeaked by Nebraska. Wake Forest squeaked by Syracuse by the same margin.

4. CFP Implications:

·        Let’s face it, the SEC will have 1 or maybe 2 spots. Two spots can happen if Alabama and Gorgia win out and Alabama wins the SEC Championship. These two one loss teams would still be heavily favored to grab CFP slots. But wait! What about Kentucky? Well Kentucky faces UGA in two weeks and if the Wildcats prevail just put their name on the tickets to Atlanta.

·        Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are both undefeated in the Big12. OU barely wins each game but either undefeated team or an OU with one-loss that comes back to win the Big 10 Championship is likely to get a spot.

·        The Big 10 will have a spot. Even a one-loss Big 10 champion is a lock. It is possible to have a 2-loss Big 10 champ but that would just make them ponder more before saying yes. If Iowa runs the tables and loses the Big 10 Championship it is not likely to get the nod with one loss. This means the only candidates for 1-loss big 10 invite come from Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State. This means it is very unlikely to have two Big 10 candidates this year.

·        Who gets the 4th slot? Only Wake Forest remains undefeated in the ACC and are now ranked 19th. Should they beat Clemson and #22 NC State their ranking will get into the top 10. The ACC Atlantic division is WAY stronger than the Coastal but an undefeated ACC Champion would be hard to say no to.

·        It would be much easier to take an undefeated Wake Forest than Coastal Carolina who remain a lock for an undefeated “so what?” season. Don’t get me wrong, the Chanticleers have a fine team, but without playing a single ranked opponent they have the weakest strength of schedule of any top 25 team.

·        It might be harder to say no to an undefeated and now #5 Cincinnati. #23 SMU is now 6-0 and could easily be ranked in the teems and 10-0 when they face Cincinnati on November 20. That along with beating Notre Dame would be two high quality wins (particularly if ND continues to win) and would favor Cincinnati over Wake Forest. My guess in Cincinnati get that Fiesta Bowl trip and beats a strong Big 10 team (Iowa? Ohio State?) making their case they should have been in the CFP!

·        There are no undefeated Pac-12 teams and the only ranked team at this point in the season are the #9 Ducks and the #18 Sun Devils. Even if Oregon runs the tables, the wouldn’t get in over an undefeated Wake Forest, Cincinnati. Other undefeated Top 25 teams include SMU and San Diego State, neither of whom has faced a ranked opponent. SMU will face only one. SDSU should run the table in a mediocre Mountain West.  That prize is a trip to LA for the Los Angeles Bowl.