What Modi’s Third Straight Win Means

The 2024 Indian general elections witnessed a remarkable political contest between the incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and a newly formed opposition coalition, the INDIA Alliance (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance). Despite facing a strong challenge from the opposition, which secured 232 seats out of 543 in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of parliament, Modi secured a third consecutive term with 240 seats for the BJP and 293 seats for its alliance partners. The opposition coalition, led by the Congress party, consisted of various regional and national parties that united to address the pressing economic and social issues that India faced, such as the slowdown, unemployment, inequality, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The election outcomes reflected India’s regional and ideological diversity, as well as the popularity and charisma of Modi, who campaigned on his development and nationalism agenda. However, Prime Minister Modi’s third term also poses many domestic and international challenges and opportunities, which require a careful and balanced approach to meet the expectations and demands of various stakeholders. Prime Minister Modi, who is widely admired for his decisive and visionary leadership but also criticized for his authoritarian and divisive tendencies, has to deal with a complex and dynamic political and social landscape in India and the region.

Prime Minister Modi’s previous term (2019-2024) had many policies and actions that were controversial and contentious and led to criticism and opposition from different groups. Some of these were the removal of special status and rights for Jammu and Kashmir, the Citizenship Amendment Act, which caused protests all over the country, and his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, which showed the problems of the public health system. Also, Prime Minister Modi’s support for Hindu nationalism and his crackdown on dissent and minorities made many secular and liberal people unhappy, who said he was harming the democratic values and pluralism of India.

Prime Minister Modi won again from Varanasi, his seat since 2014, by a big margin of over 400,000 votes. But he also had a hard time in some important states, like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala, where the opposition coalition did well and gave the BJP tough competition. Besides, even though the Ram temple in Ayodhya opened with a big ceremony, the BJP unexpectedly lost in the Faizabad constituency in the May elections. This unexpected outcome was largely due to local discontent from relocating residents for the construction of the temple and its associated projects. The amount provided was insufficient, and the people were dissatisfied. Moreover, Prime Minister Modi’s focus on the temple project was seen as a bad political move as it did not get the expected Hindu votes across the country. The BJP’s actions and words were also seen as hurting India’s secular democracy, leading to a negative reaction from minority populations and causing the party’s electoral loss.

Modi faces social and political unrest in his third term, as different groups who feel marginalized and mistreated by his government have expressed their anger and dissatisfaction. Groups like the Dalits, the Muslims, the farmers, and the students have participated in protests and movements, such as the anti-CAA protests, the Dalit uprising, the farmers’ unrest, and the student rallies, to demand their rights and justice. These protests and movements have created a serious risk to the Modi government’s credibility and stability, as well as to the social peace and unity of the country. The Modi government has dealt with these protests and movements with a combination of suppression and dialogue, depending on the situation and the pressure. However, the government has also faced allegations of using excessive force, violence, and threats against the protesters, as well as restricting the freedom of expression and the media, and abusing the law and the institutions to quiet and harass its critics and opponents.

India’s approach to regional countries, SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) members, and Afghanistan under Modi has been influenced by a combination of strategic, economic, and cultural interests. India has aimed to improve its connectivity, trade, and cooperation with its neighbors, especially Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives, through various initiatives and projects, such as the BBIN (Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal) Motor Vehicles Agreement, the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project, the Colombo Port City Project, and the India-Maldives Friendship Bridge. India has also backed the democratic transitions and development efforts of these countries, as well as provided humanitarian and medical assistance during the pandemic and natural disasters. India has also attempted to revive the SAARC, which has been inactive since 2016 due to conflicts with Pakistan. India has suggested to hold a virtual summit of the SAARC leaders and to concentrate on the common challenges and opportunities in the region, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, terrorism, and poverty. India has also participated actively in Afghanistan’s peace and reconstruction process and invested in various infrastructure and development projects, such as the Salma Dam, the Parliament Building, the Zaranj-Delaram Highway, and the Chabahar Port. India has also trained and equipped the Afghan security forces and supported the Afghan government in its talks with the Taliban.

However, India’s policies and actions in the region have also faced some challenges and criticisms, especially from Pakistan and China, which view India as a rival and a threat to their interests and influence. Modi’s Kashmir policy, which involved the abrogation of its special status and autonomy, the imposition of a lockdown and a communication blackout, the detention of thousands of political leaders and activists, and the violation of human rights and humanitarian law, has also strained India’s relations with its neighbors, especially Pakistan and China, who have opposed and challenged India’s unilateral and illegal actions in the disputed territory. Modi’s Kashmir policy has also increased the risk of escalation and conflict in the region, as well as the possibility of international intervention and mediation, which India has always rejected. Modi’s restriction on media freedom and civil liberties has also undermined India’s soft power and influence in the world, as well as its ability to project itself as a leader and a model of democracy and development in the 21st century.

Additionally, Modi’s shift towards the new Afghan government of the Taliban, previously denounced by India as a terrorist group, has raised concerns among Pakistan and China. They perceive this as a strategic move by India to gain leverage in Afghanistan and counter their interests and presence in the country. India’s regional policies under Prime Minister Modi have sparked significant challenges and criticisms, particularly from Pakistan and China, who view India as a rival. The revocation of Kashmir’s special status, as per Articles 370 and 35A, led to severe measures such as lockdowns, communication blackouts, and detentions, which have been criticized as human rights violations. These actions have exacerbated tensions with neighbors, especially Pakistan and China, who have condemned India’s unilateral approach in the disputed region.

The policy has escalated the risk of regional conflict and the possibility of international intervention, which India opposes. Moreover, Modi’s policies have impacted India’s image as a democratic leader, due to restrictions on media and civil liberties. The strategic shift towards the Taliban-led Afghan government has also raised concerns, with Pakistan and China viewing it as a move to counter their influence. China’s efforts to strengthen ties with India’s neighbors such as Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives, and by engaging in border disputes with India and by engaging in border disputes with India. China opposed India’s inclusion in global groups like the Nuclear Suppliers Group and the UN Security Council further challenge India’s regional dominance. These patterns show the challenges of India’s relations with its neighbors and its role in the world.

India’s policies towards its region have had varied effects on regional cooperation and stability. While India has helped regional development, prosperity, democracy, human rights, and peace, it has also faced criticism of being overbearing and meddling in the matters of smaller countries and ignoring their interests. Conflicts and disputes with neighbors, especially Pakistan and China, have eroded regional confidence and collaboration, increasing the chance of violence and instability. Putting these policies into practice may cause dissatisfaction and trouble in the regions, thereby harming India’s internal security. This could potentially lead to social and political chaos, hampering India’s growth and development potential. The apparent tilt towards the Taliban in Afghanistan has the possibility to change the strategic balance in the region, potentially transforming alliances and partnerships and therefore, affecting India’s regional status and power.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants India to be a global leader in peace, stability, and development in his third term. He engages more with different regional and multilateral groups such as ASEAN, BRICS, SCO, G20, UN, and WHO, and leads global efforts like the International Solar Alliance and the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure. But he faces difficulties. Modi’s domestic policies, seen as undemocratic and unfair, have drawn international criticism. China and Russia do not support India on UN Security Council reform and terrorism. India’s own constraints have also affected its global performance. These challenges have made India’s global image mixed. Modi’s initiatives have increased India’s influence and leadership potential in solving global problems, but they have also raised doubts about India’s democracy and secularism and its responsibility as a global actor.

In conclusion, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third term has been characterized by a blend of triumphs and tribulations, both within India’s borders and on the international stage. His tenure has been driven by a bold vision to reshape India into a nation that is simultaneously modern, affluent, and influential. Yet, this vision has been tested by a series of social, political, and economic upheavals. Domestically, Modi’s initiatives aimed at economic advancement, social welfare, and bolstering national security have witnessed partial success, but have also been shadowed by contentious issues such as the management of the COVID-19 pandemic, agrarian protests, citizenship legislation, and the Kashmir situation. Internationally, Modi’s assertive foreign policy to elevate India’s standing has been proactive, but has faced challenges from China’s assertiveness, Pakistan’s unpredictability, the intricate dynamics within South Asia, and the complex demands of the global community. The legacy of Modi’s third term will ultimately be evaluated based on his ability to navigate these challenges and harness India’s capabilities to fulfill his vision of a “New India” that is prosperous and powerful and commands global respect in the 21st century.