Why the Smartphone Is Not Dead and Won’t Be for the Foreseeable Future

After spending an incredible $10 billion on acquiring mobile giant Nokia, Microsoft was forced to admit defeat and abandon their plans to compete in the smartphone arena. Despite clear ambitions, it was third-party app developers who treated Windows Mobile like an afterthought that played a big part in the failed project.

That said, the tech giant has made several missteps over the last few years. For one, they famously focused on adding TV features to its Xbox game console. It turned out nobody wanted that, so the project floundered. They were also forced to call time on their attempt at wearables.

Now, Microsoft set their sights on the smartphone. Right off the bat, they declared it dead. It appears the tech behemoth believes that a mixed-reality style device will replace our beloved and oft benighted smartphones.

The phone is already dead, people just haven’t realized  - Alex Kipman

The controversial quote echoes the sentiments of Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, who recently predicted: “Our next phones may not look like phones.”

Most people will agree that the stagnant smartphone marketplace is in desperate need of a shake. The problem is that anyone who wants a phone already has one. Why would they upgrade to an expensive new handset?

Interestingly, Apple is rumored to be working on augmented reality smartphones. I have already reported that Mark Zuckerberg seems to be of the same mindset too.

So when you say 'when will we make more phones,' I'm sure we'll make more phones. But they may not look like phones that are there today.” - Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella

The vision is almost as impressive as the price tag. Audiences will find the current price of $3,000 for a HoloLens, a little out of their reach. The device probably won’t be ready for general sale until 2019, meaning that the smartphone is unlikely to disappear anytime soon.

Realistically, as smart watches and headsets come and go, most people will choose to use a smartphone the way that they always have. Make no mistake, AR and VR are both coming, and the price will eventually come down, but any talk of the entire industry being wiped out overnight is ludicrous.

We are living in the age of the 24-hour news feed, where even the most complex subjects are declared hot property in the morning and cold news by the time the sun goes down.

In the same way that AI or machine learning are not going to destroy all jobs imminently, we can safely assume that smartphones are not dead and buried just yet.

Let’s adjust our expectations accordingly.

The reality is that any significant change or trend that we read about will typically take 3-5 years to enter the mainstream. The tech media should be acting more responsibly than leading with clickbait headlines to snatch quick and easy hits and appease their advertisers.

Any tech company that reveals a 5-10-year roadmap of how they plan to use advanced technologies that will revolutionize both our lifestyle and business should be treated as aspirational until the results are in. Otherwise, our obsession with the next big thing will ultimately lead us to count our chickens before they hatch.

What is abundantly clear is that despite the failings of Google Glass, overlaying images on our vision will play a major part in the evolution of technology. What that means for the smartphone, we can’t say just yet.