The Russian Union of Grain Exporters and Producers (RUSGRAIN UNION) formed an Expert Committee of representatives of member companies to assess and forecast the grain, pulses and processed product markets. The Committee includes representatives of Aston, AST, MZK Export, Demetra Holding, OZK, Petrokhleb-Kuban. Igor Pavensky, head of agricultural market analysis at Rusagrotrans, was elected Head of the Committee.
Following the first meeting, the Committee made a preliminary assessment of the export potential of Russian grain in 2025, in an optimistic scenario, about 45 million metric tons, including 40 million metric tons of wheat.
Exports for the first half of 2025 will be limited by a quota from February 15 to June 30, 2025. 10.6 million metric tons have been allocated for the quota, while it is highly likely that about 0.5 million metric tons will be allocated for corn exports from the Far East, where a good local harvest was harvested. In the period from January until February 15, the Committee expects grain exports of approximately 3 million tons in January and 1.5 million tons in the first half of February. Thus, by July 1, 2025, about 15 million tons of grain can be exported.
In case of restoration of winter crops during the spring vegetation period, we assume that the 2025 harvest will exceed 130 million metric tons of grain, including 85 million metric tons of wheat. In this case, we can count on exporting another 30 million metric tons of grain in the second half of 2025, including 25 million metric tons of wheat. In the conservative scenario, exports in the second half of 2025 will amount to no more than 20 million metric tons, mainly wheat.
Russian grain importers have consistently high demand. MENA, our home market, is still far from self-sufficient. We also see growth prospects in other countries on the African continent, where grain remains one of the most affordable ways to feed a rapidly growing population and solve the problem of hunger. We are especially proud that Russian wheat exports to Nigeria have already exceeded 1 million metric tons in the 2024/25 season, which has helped to reduce the number of starvings in the country below the record 100 million.
