OBX Data

**OIL AND GAS WEEKLY AGENDA: Week Dec. 30-Jan. 3** All times US Eastern unless noted *MONDAY, Dec. 30* • 📈 ICE Futures Europe weekly commitment of traders report, noon London time (delayed from Dec. 27 by holidays) • 📈 CFTC weekly commitment of traders data (delayed from Dec. 27 by holidays) • ⏲ Brent futures for February expire • Holidays: Russia 🇷🇺 *TUESDAY, Dec. 31* • 🇨🇳 China PMIs for December • 📊 API 4:30pm • Holidays: New Year’s Eve is observed in many countries *WEDNESDAY, Jan. 1* • Holidays: New Year’s Day is observed in multiple countries including the UK and the US *THURSDAY, Jan. 2* • 🇨🇳 Caixin China Manufacturing PMI for December • 📊 Singapore & ARA onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data • 🇪🇺 Eurozone manufacturing PMI for December, 10am Brussels time • 🇺🇸 US initial jobless claims, 8:30am • 🇺🇸 S&P Global US manufacturing PMI for December, 9:45am • 📊 EIA weekly report on US oil inventories, supply and demand, 11am (delayed a day by holidays) • Holidays: Countries including Japan 🇯🇵; Azerbaijan 🇦🇿; Kazakhstan 🇰🇿 *FRIDAY, Jan. 3* • Shanghai exchange weekly commodities inventory, about 3:30pm local time • 🇺🇸 US ISM manufacturing PMI for December, 10am • 📊 EIA weekly report on US natural gas inventories, 10:30am (delayed a day by holidays) • 📈 Baker Hughes weekly rig count report, 1pm • NOTE: CFTC weekly commitment of traders data delayed to Jan. 6 due to holidays • NOTE: ICE Futures Europe weekly commitment of traders report delayed to Jan. 6 due to holidays • Holidays: Japan 🇯🇵: Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 #Energy #Oil #Gas #Shipping #Renewables #OTC #OTCData #HappyNewYear

🗓️ *OIL AND GAS WEEKLY AGENDA: Week Dec. 23-27* All times US Eastern unless noted *MONDAY, Dec. 23* • North Sea Forties loading program for February expected • ⏲ Brent options for February expire • Holidays: Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 *TUESDAY, Dec. 24* • 🇺🇸 US durable goods orders for November, 8:30am • 📊 API, 4:30pm • Holidays include: Venezuela 🇻🇪; Libya ; Norway 🇳🇴 *WEDNESDAY, Dec. 25* • 🎄🎅🏽🎄Holidays: Christmas Day is widely observed around the world *THURSDAY, Dec. 26* • 📊 Singapore onshore oil-product stockpiles weekly data • 🇺🇸 US initial jobless claims, 8:30am • 📊 EIA weekly report on US oil inventories, supply and demand, 11am (delayed a day by holidays) • 🎄🎅🏼🎄Holidays: Christmas Holiday/Boxing Day is observed in multiple countries including Australia, UK, Canada *FRIDAY, Dec. 27* • Shanghai exchange weekly commodities inventory, about 3:30pm local time • 📊 ARA weekly oil product inventories (delayed a day by holidays) • 📊 EIA weekly report on US natural gas inventories, 10:30am (delayed a day by holidays) • 📈 Baker Hughes weekly rig count report, 1pm - NOTE: CFTC weekly commitment of traders data is delayed to Dec. 30 by holidays - NOTE: ICE Futures Europe weekly commitment of traders report is delayed to Dec. 30 by holidays #Energy #Oil #Gas #Shipping #Renewables #OTC #OTCData #MerryChristmas

Wrapping Up 2024: Key Crude & Related Market Trends Heading into 2025 As we approach the festive season and the year comes to a close, it's a good time to reflect on key developments in the crude and related markets, particularly in relation to Western markets, and how they’re positioning for 2025. WTI/Brent & U.S. Gulf to UKC Freight The spread between WTI and Brent has been narrowing throughout 2024, from around -$4.78 to -$3.19 by late December. Meanwhile, Aframax rates for U.S. Gulf Coast to UK Continent have followed a different path. Rates climbed by 17% through early April, peaking at nearly $39 per ton, before experiencing a managed decline of 7.5%. Prices for Q1 2025 dropped from $36 to $28 per metric ton, possibly due to cheaper delivery costs and increased competition from other vessel types. WTI & DFL (Dated to Frontline) WTI Midland (HOU), now deliverable into the Brent complex, is driving an already close relationship between WTI and DFL pricing even closer, as illustrated in the chart below. While there has been some separation in December, increased WTI Midland volumes may be playing a role here. Looking Ahead to 2025 We are seeing clear signs of oversupply across global markets, with concerns over economic data from China and EMEA adding to market downside risk. In the U.S., signals point to an administration keen on ramping up production to enhance energy security. Additionally, the Dangote refinery in Nigeria continues to increase its output, impacting Atlantic crude and product markets, which are already navigating geopolitical uncertainties. Energy transition challenges also loom. The EMEA region's push for net-zero energy is intensifying competition between fossil fuels and renewables. Biofuels are resurging, while alternatives like ammonia, hydrogen, and methanol are adding to the energy mix. Meanwhile, record electricity prices across EMEA economies are creating headwinds for European manufacturing. 2024: A Year of Change, 2025: Another Year of Opportunity The energy markets have been anything but predictable this year, and we expect more of the same heading into 2025. To everyone heading into the holiday season, and to those holding down the fort until the New Year, thank you for your support this year. It’s been an exciting first year for OBX, and we look forward to another prosperous year together in 2025. Happy holidays from the OBX team! 🎉 #Energy #Oil #Shipping #OTC #OTCData #Christam #HappyNewYear

*🗓️ WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEK* Main events this week: Week Dec. 16-20 - All times US Eastern unless noted. - 🇨🇳 China is expected to publish a range of data on energy output and trading during the week. - 🇪🇺 European ministers will discuss a wide variety of energy- and environment-related issues at meetings in Brussels. - 🏦 Central banks expected to announce their latest decisions on interest rates with the FED due on Wednesday, BoE and BoJ on Thursday *MONDAY, Dec. 16* • 🇨🇳 China due to publish November industrial output figures, including coal, gas and power generation; crude oil and refining • 🇪🇺 Eurozone manufacturing, services and composite PMIs for December, 10am Brussels time • 🇪🇺 EU energy ministers meet in Brussels to discuss geothermal energy, future of energy policy and grids action plan • 🔈 IEFA’s Conference of Paris (through Dec. 17). • 🇦🇴 Angola preliminary program for February crude exports due • 🇺🇸 S&P Global US manufacturing, services and composite PMIs for December, 9:45am • ⏲ WTI January options expire • Holidays: Kazakhstan 🇰🇿 ; South Africa 🇿🇦🇦 *TUESDAY, Dec. 17* • 🔉 Cercle de Giverny conference on energy transition, Paris. • 🇺🇸 US industrial production for November, 9:15am • 📊 API, 4:30pm *WEDNESDAY, Dec. 18* • 🇨🇳 China due to publish November output data for base metals and oil products • 🇨🇳 China due to publish second batch of November trade data, including LNG and pipeline gas imports; oil products trade breakdown • 🇪🇺 Eurozone CPI for November, 11am Brussels time • 📊 EIA weekly report on US oil inventories, supply and demand, 10:30am • 🇺🇸❗US FED interest rates decision, 2pm, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference • ⏲ WTI CSOs for January expire • Holidays: Qatar 🇶🇦 *THURSDAY, Dec. 19* • 📊 Singapore & ARA oil-product stockpile weekly data • 🇯🇵 Bank of Japan interest rate decision. See TLIV for TOPLive blog • 🇪🇺 EU leaders meet in Brussels to discuss issues inclduing Ukraine, Middle East • 🇬🇧 Bank of England interest rates decision, noon London time • 🇺🇸 US GDP for 3Q, 8:30am • 🇺🇸 US initial jobless claims, 8:30am • 📊 EIA weekly report on US natural gas inventories, 10:30am • ⏲ WTI January futures expire *FRIDAY, Dec. 20* • 🇨🇳 China due to publish third batch of November trade data, including country breakdowns for energy and commodities • Shanghai exchange weekly commodities inventory, about 3:30pm local time • 🇺🇸 US personal income, spending for November, 8:30am • 📈 Baker Hughes weekly rig count report, 1pm • 📈 CFTC weekly COT data, 3:30pm • 📈 ICE Futures Europe weekly COT report, 6:30pm London (1:30 p.m. ET) 

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*🗓️OIL AND GAS AGENDA* *MONDAY, Dec. 9* - 🇨🇳China CPI, PPI for November - World LNG Summit, Berlin (through Dec. 12) *TUESDAY, Dec. 10* - 🇨🇳China to publish its first batch of November trade data, including oil, gas and coal imports; oil products imports and exports - 🔋UFE annual electricity conference, with senior industry executives among the speakers, Paris - 🇺🇸EIA due to publish its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, noon - 📊API,4:30pm - Holidays: Iraq 🇮🇶 ; Thailand 🇹🇭 *WEDNESDAY, Dec. 11* - 🇨🇳China holds Central Economic Work Conference, Beijing (through Dec. 12) - OPEC to publish Monthly Oil Market Repor - 🇺🇸US CPI report for November, 8:30am. - 📊EIA weekly report on US oil inventories, supply and demand, 10:30am - Exxon Mobil to issue corporate plan update/upstream spotlight *THURSDAY, Dec. 12* - 🇨🇳China holds Central Economic Work Conference, Beijing (last day) - 📊Singapore & ARA onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data - 📑❗️IEA due to publish monthly oil market report, 10am Paris time - 🇪🇺ECB rates decisions, 2:15pm Frankfurt time - 🇬🇾Guyana loading programs for February due - 🇺🇸US initial jobless claims, 8:30am - 🇺🇸US PPI for November, 8:30am 📊EIA weekly report on US natural gas inventories, 10:30am - ⏰ICE gasoil December futures expire - Imperial Oil issues 2025 guidance - Holidays: Mexico 🇲🇽 *FRIDAY, Dec. 13* - Shanghai exchange weekly commodities inventory, about 3:30pm local time - 📈Baker Hughes weekly rig count report, 1pm - 📈CFTC weekly COT data, 3.30pm - 📈ICE Futures Europe weekly COT report, 6:30pm London (1:30 p.m. ET) #Energy #Oil #Gas #China #US #PPI #OTC #OTCMarketData

*Crude Oil Market Outlook for 2025: A Year of Uncertainty and Oversupply* As we move into 2025, the crude oil market remains surrounded by uncertainty, with a notable surplus of product expected to persist throughout the year. Recent reports indicate that OPEC+ will likely delay any planned production increases, given the anticipated oversupply. Additionally, with a potential change in U.S. leadership early next year, energy policy may shift slightly, as both presidential candidates have expressed intentions to ramp up U.S. energy independence. However, convincing producers to increase output could prove challenging if prices do not align with the cost-benefit. Quarterly Price Differentials for 2025: Insights from the Past Year Over the last year, price spreads have fluctuated, reflecting the underlying geopolitical and economic dynamics. April 2024 saw the highest spreads as geopolitical tensions escalated, yet the broader market analysis pointed to oversupply in 2025 unless more extreme geopolitical disruptions occurred: Q1 2025/Q2 2025: $1.43 Q2 2025/Q3 2025: $1.25 Q3 2025/Q4 2025: $1.14 Q4 2025/Q1 2026: $1.00 These spreads tightened through the summer, hitting their lowest levels in September 2024, before slightly widening again in October 2024: September 2024 Average Spreads: Q1 2025/Q2 2025: $0.25 Q2 2025/Q3 2025: $0.30 Q3 2025/Q4 2025: $0.29 Q4 2025/Q1 2026: $0.24 October 2024 Average Spreads: Q1 2025/Q2 2025: $0.55 Q2 2025/Q3 2025: $0.51 Q3 2025/Q4 2025: $0.48 Q4 2025/Q1 2026: $0.40 Key Market Drivers for 2025 Despite the ongoing complexities in the crude oil market, the primary factors influencing the outlook seem to be production cuts from certain countries and companies, coupled with the economic slowdown in Europe and China. This slowdown contrasts with the push from other regions striving for energy autonomy, which will require expanded production and potentially more export partnerships. If the surplus continues to rise, balancing these dynamics will be key to navigating the evolving market landscape in 2025. #Energy #Crude #OTC #OTCData

*WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEK* - Nov. 30-Dec. 6 - All times US Eastern unless noted *MONDAY, Dec. 2* - 🇨🇳Caixin’s China manufacturing PMI for November - French President Emmanuel Macron due to make state visit to Saudi Arabia (through Dec. 4) - 🎙️Gulf Petrochemicals & Chemicals Association Forum, Muscat, Oman (through Dec. 5) - 🎙️UN Convention to Combat Desertification COP16 conference, Riyadh (through Dec. 13). - 🇪🇸Spain’s Cores to release provisional fuel consumption data for October - 🇪🇺Eurozone manufacturing PMI for November, 10am Brussels time - 🇺🇸S&P Global US manufacturing PMI for November, 9:45am - 🇺🇸US ISM manufacturing PMI for November, 10am - 📈CFTC weekly commitment of traders data (delayed from Friday because of US Thanksgiving holiday) - Holidays: Scotland 🏴󐁧󐁢󐁳󐁣󐁴󐁿 ; UAE 🇦🇪 *TUESDAY, Dec. 3* - 🎙️Conference on Rewable Marine Energy, Paris - 🎙️UN General Assembly plenary meeting to debate Middle East - 📊API, 4:30pm - Holidays: UAE 🇦🇪 WEDNESDAY, Dec. 4 - 🇨🇳Caixin’s China services, composite PMIs for November - 🎙️Saudi Green Initiative Forum (last day), Riyadh - 🇪🇺Eurozone services, composite PMIs for November, 10am - 🎙️IEA Global Conference on Energy and AI, Paris (through Dec. 5) - 🇪🇸Spain’s Cores releases crude import data for October - 🇺🇸US ADP employment change for November, 8:15am - 🇺🇸S&P Global US services, composite PMIs for November, 9:45am - 🇺🇸US factory orders for October, 10am - 🇺🇸US ISM services index for November, 10am - 🇺🇸US durable goods orders for October, 10am - 📊EIA weekly report on US oil inventories, supply and demand, 10:30am - 🇺🇸US Federal Reserve issues Beige Book, 2pm *THURSDAY, Dec. 5* - 📊Singapore and ARA oil-product stockpile weekly data - 🎙️OPEC+ discussions on output - 🎙️European Industrial Carbon Management Summit, Brussels. - 🇺🇸US initial jobless claims, 8:30am - 🇺🇸US trade balance for October, 8:30am - 📊EIA weekly report on US natural gas inventories, 10:30am - ⏰ICE Gasoil options for December expire - Holidays: Thailand 🇹🇭 *FRIDAY, Dec. 6* - Shanghai exchange weekly commodities inventory, about 3:30pm local time - 🇪🇺Eurozone GDP for 3Q, 11am Brussels time - 🇺🇸US change in nonfarm payrolls/unemployment rate for November, 8:30am. - 📈Baker Hughes weekly rig count report, 1pm - 📈CFTC weekly COT data, 3.30pm - 📈ICE Futures Europe weekly COT report, 6:30pm London (1:30 p.m. ET) #Energy #Oil #Gas #Renewable #Shipping #OTC #OTCMarketData

With U.S Elections now behind us, and 2025 fast approaching. Matthew Joy takes a deeper look at some of Americas largest energy and chemical related exports #Energy #LPG #LNG #OTC #OTCData

*🗓 WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEK* - The U.S. will observe the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, followed by Black Friday, leading to adjustments in trading hours and the timing of data releases.  - Brent January futures contracts are set to expire on Friday, coinciding with the expected release of North Sea crude loading programs for January, anticipated around Thursday. - Energy conferences: This week features several key events, including the Energy Intelligence Forum in London and the EU-GCC Investment & Finance Green Transition Forum in Abu Dhabi. Week Nov. 25-29 (All times US Eastern unless noted) *MONDAY, Nov. 25* • 🔈 Energy Intelligence Forum, London (through Nov. 27).  • 🔈 G-7 foreign ministers meeting in Fiuggi/Anagni, Italy, with discussions to include the crises in the Middle East and Ukraine (through Nov. 26) • Holidays: Myanmar 🇲🇲 *TUESDAY, Nov. 26* • 🔈 EU-GCC Investment & Finance Green Transition Forum, Abu Dhabi.  • 🔈 Energy Risk Europe Conference, London.  • 🇺🇸 US Fed releases minutes of latest meeting, 2pm • 📊 API 4:30pm • ⏲️ Brent January options expire *WEDNESDAY, Nov. 27* • 🔈 Conferences include the Power Europe conference, Amsterdam (through Nov. 29), European Aviation Conference, Antwerp (through Nov. 29)  • 🇺🇸 US data expected to be released at 8:30am include: US GDP for 3Q, US Personal Consumption for 3Q, US Core PCE Price Index 3Q, US Durable Goods Orders for October, US Initial Jobless Claims, then at 10am US Personal Income, Spending for October, US Core PCE Price Index for October. • 📊 EIA weekly report on US oil inventories, supply and demand, 10:30am • 📊 EIA weekly report on US natural gas inventories, noon • 📈 Baker Hughes weekly rig count report, 1pm *THURSDAY, Nov. 28* • 📊 Singapore an ARA oil-product stockpile weekly data • North Sea programs for January due • 🔉 European Aviation Conference, Antwerp (through Nov. 29) • Tullow trading update • Holidays: United States 🇺🇸; Panama 🇵🇦 *FRIDAY, Nov. 29* • Shanghai exchange weekly commodities inventory, about 3:30pm local time • 🇪🇺 Eurozone CPI for November, 11am Brussels time • 🌴 Black Friday kicks off the holiday shopping season in the US    o For CME schedule CME Group Holiday Calendar    o For ICE schedule Trading_Schedule.pdf • 📈 NOTE: CFTC weekly COT data delayed until Monday Dec. 2 because of US holiday • 📈 ICE Futures Europe weekly COT report, 6:30pm London (1:30 p.m. ET) • ⏲️ Brent January futures expire #Energy #Oil #Gas #OTC #OTCData