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Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump dances during a rally at Mullett Arena in Tempe, Arizona, U.S. October 24, 2024.
Election Countdown: 15 key counties that could determine the outcome
With four days to go before Election Day, both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were in Nevada and Arizona on Thursday to shore up support in the critical western swing states. At dueling rallies, the candidates made bids to win over Latino voters and focused on border security.
In Nevada, home to a large number of service workers and an economy that has struggled to rebound from COVID, Trump and Harris touted their plans for exempting tips from taxes.
In Arizona, both candidates are banking on ballot initiatives to boost turnout. Republicans are rallying around a ballot initiative making illegal border crossings a state crime, while Democrats are hoping a measure enshrining the right to an abortion in the state’s constitution will spur pro-choice voters to the polls.
Arizona is likely to come down to just one county: Maricopa.
There has been no shortage of attention paid to the seven swing states that are likely to decide this hyper-close election. But within those states, there are counties that are key indicators of how each state will end up.
“The counties to watch in the election are a mixture of bellwethers that tend to go the way of their states, big counties that have an outsized impact on state results, and counties that will provide key information on how the candidates are performing among particular demographic groups,” explains Eurasia Group’s Noah Daponte-Smith.
So, without further ado, here are the counties to watch as the results roll in on Tuesday night.
In Arizona, whoever wins Maricopa, which encompasses Phoenix and its surrounding areas, is likely to win the state’s 11 Electoral College votes. The whole election could hinge on this county because of how long it is expected to take to tally all of its votes.
Maricopa has a population of over 4.5 million residents, more than the populations of nearly half of the states in the US, and Republican-pushed voting laws are going to slow down the count. Because of this, election officials are warning that it could take up to 13 days to count all the ballots, which, if the election is close, could mean the winner isn’t known for nearly two weeks.
Pennsylvania has four bellwether counties that will serve as signals for whether the state – which has a 90% chance of determining the election – is going red or blue. Harris needs to excel in democratic stronghold Philadelphia, at least outpacing Biden’s 2020 performance, if she is going to win the Keystone State. Erie, Pittsburg, and Scranton are also key indicators of how the winds are blowing.
Pennsylvania is unlikely to be decided for a day or two because of rules that forbid counting absentee ballots before Election Day.
In Georgia, all eyes will be on Atlanta’s Fulton and DeKalb counties, as well as its surrounding suburbs of Gwinnett, Henry, and Cobb. The key thing to look for is Harris’ margins with Black voters, which not only are likely to determine whether she wins the state but will also shed light on how she is tracking with Black voters nationwide.
Wisconsin is anyone’s game and may depend on whether the margins in Milwaukee and its surrounding suburbs of Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington are closer to 2016, when Trump won, or 2020, when Biden took back the state.
North Carolina is expected to be the first swing state to be decided. As early results roll in, look at the Charlotte suburbs of Union and Cabarrus, which will show how Harris is faring among suburban voters.
Republicans have held the state in every election since Obama in 2008, when he won in large part because of high Black voter turnout. Harris needs to drive similar volumes of Democratic turnout, which is likely to come from the suburbs outside of cities like Charlotte, to offset Trump’s dominance in rural parts of the state.
Tesla CEO and X owner Elon Musk speaks as Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. president Donald Trump looks on during a rally at the site of the July assassination attempt against Trump, in Butler, Pennsylvania, U.S., October 5, 2024.
Election Countdown: Harris, Trump, and Musk focus in on the swing states
It's two weeks until Election Day, and both candidates are scrambling to pull ahead in the seven swing states that could decide the election.
Kamala Harris hit three battleground states on Monday – Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan – accompanied by former GOP Rep. Liz Cheney. The two aimed to win over Trump-skeptic Republicans and independent voters in the suburbs to secure a “blue wall” against the GOP-dominated rural stretches of the states.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump campaigned in western North Carolina, criticizing FEMA’s response to Hurricane Helene in a region where many people are still without water, internet, and power. These counties are also 61% Republican, and Trump is trying to galvanize residents by attacking the government’s response to the storm, baselessly accusing FEMA of spending funds on undocumented immigrants, “They don’t have any money ... It’s all gone. They’ve spent it on illegal migrants, many of them are murderers.”
Monday was also the deadline to register to vote in Pennsylvania, the election’s most critical swing state and the site of Elon Musk’s controversial sweepstakes giving $1 million to one registered voter who signs his petition every day until the election. The scheme is raising alarm bells among election law experts because it could be considered financially incentivizing registering to vote or voting, which is illegal. But on its face, it is only a reward for signing a petition that affirms the rights to free speech and to bear arms.
Its potential impact is up for debate. Of the 9.95 million people of voting age in Pennsylvania, 90.8% of them are already registered, a slight uptick from the 2020 presidential election. However, it undoubtedly raises awareness and anticipation of the upcoming vote, which could lead to more of Musk’s fans — who disproportionately lean to the right — casting their ballots.
Wondering which swing states each candidate needs to win to secure the White House? Read this for everything you need to know.FILE PHOTO: Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump looks on as Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris' face appears as a video plays on a screen, during a rally at Huntington Place in Detroit, Michigan, U.S. October 18, 2024.
Everything you need to know about the 7 swing states that could decide the election
The US election will likely be decided in the seven highly competitive swing states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Within these, there are various combinations that Kamala Harris or Donald Trump could secure to make it to the 270 electoral college votes needed to win.
If both candidates win all the states that solidly and likely lean their way, Harris would still need 44 electoral votes from the tossup states to win, and Trump would need 51. Here’s a roadmap of each candidate’s route through the swing states to the White House, and the key voters and issues in each state, in order of their number of electoral votes.
Pennsylvania is arguably the most important battleground state because it has 19 electoral votes, the most of any swing state, and it's hard to imagine either candidate winning the White House without it. According to election analyst Nate Silver, the candidate who wins Pennsylvania has more than a 90% chance of winning the White House.
Pennsylvania historically trended slightly blue, but in recent years the state has purpled. The state House is divided and the last few general elections have been decided on razor-thin margins. That was until the 2022 governor’s race when Democrat Josh Shapiro triumphed over a Trump-backed Republican by almost fifteen points, and his approval ratings in the state remain strong.
When it comes to the issues and key demographics, Pennsylvania is a mini America. The economy is transitioning from manufacturing to newer industries, and agriculture is still the state’s second largest industry. It also has a massive energy sector – where fracking is and the green energy transition are major issues.
Demographically, the majority of the population is white, but the immigrant population is increasing. Twelve percent of the population is black, just under the national total of 13%. The two major cities, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, lean blue, and the vast rural stretches between them are dominated by Republicans.
Harris currently leads by less than 1 point, meaning it’s a dead tie. In 2020, Joe Biden only won the state by 1.2 points.
Georgia has 16 electoral college votes, and after years of Republican dominance, Biden clinched the closest win in 2020, at just 0.2 points, largely thanks to the state's rapidly diversifying population, marking the first time a Democratic presidential candidate won the state in nearly three decades.
It has also been the site of a battle over whether votes would be hand-counted on election night, but a judge struck down the proposal this week, ruling it would be too disruptive.
Just under half of the Peach State’s population is non-white. Thirty-three percent of the population is Black, and both candidates are vying to win their vote. Strong Black voter turnout – key to Biden’s Georgia victory in 2020 – was credited in large portion to the efforts of Stacey Abrams, who is also campaigning on Harris’ behalf this election. But Trump is trying to win those voters to his side by focusing on his economic policies, illegal immigration, and inflation.
Harris is also campaigning heavily on the state’s abortion restrictions, in recognition that women, who comprise 51% of Georgia’s population, could also play a crucial role in winning the state.
As of now, the state is leaning back toward its Republican roots. Trump is ahead there by two points.
North Carolina, with 16 electoral votes,has been won by Republicans in every presidential election since 2012. But right now, the state is a toss-up, with Trump ahead by less than one point.
Trump carried North Carolina in 2020 by just 70,000 votes, which has buoyed Democrats' hopes that this purple state could be winnable this year. The state is still reeling from Hurricane Helene, and Harris is trying to boost recovery efforts while Trump is criticizing and spread misinformation about FEMA not doing enough – or even being completely corrupt. He is also campaigning on illegal immigration and the economy.
Next up is Michigan, which has 15 electoral college votes, and because it has the largest proportion of Arab Americans, it has become the nationwide epicenter for backlash over Biden’s support for Israel's war in Gaza. During the Democratic primary in the state, more than 100,000 voters chose the “uncommitted” option on their ballots to push the US government to halt its military aid to Israel.
Most of these voters realize a Trump administration would be even more supportive of Israel. But they feel unrecognized by the DNC, especially after the party decided not to have a pro-Palestine speaker at the DNC. As a result, the appeal of voting third-party, or not at all, is growing in the Great Lakes State.
Arizona, with 11 electoral votes, is the focal point of the nation’s immigration debate thanks to its 372-mile-long border with Mexico. Trump is showing strength in this Sun Belt State and is ahead by 2 points, in large part because of support from the state’s Hispanic voters. At his rallies in the state, Trump has repeatedly attacked Harris’ record on immigration, because she was given a role by President Joe Biden to try to ease the border crisis.
However, Democrats are banking that ballot measures codifying the right to abortion in the state will help drive turnout. Following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, state Republicans tried unsuccessfully to reinstate a 160-year-old near-total ban on terminating pregnancies, before the issue of whether to add the right to an abortion to the state constitution landed on the ballot to be decided in November.
Wisconsin, with 10 electoral votes,is a key component of the Democrats' clearest path to victory – which would be winning Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Like in 2020, it has the potential to be a “tipping point” giving either candidate the edge. Wisconsin was once considered a reliably blue Rust Belt state. But it became a big-time battleground after Trump eked out a victory there in 2016.
The state is overwhelmingly white, and white working-class voters are a key group for both candidates. Notably, Harris garnered the endorsement of the local Teamsters union in Wisconsin despite national union representatives deciding not to back a candidate in the race and dispersed internal data showing a majority of members backed Trump.
But another important group is independent voters. While Wisconsin does not register voters by political party, the electorate is fairly evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, with a notable independent population in between. These independent voters helped Trump win the state in 2016 and helped Biden take the reins in 2020.
The biggest issues in the state are the economy, crime, and abortion. As things stand now, neither candidate has a lead, with Harris ahead by less than one vote.
Last and with the least electoral weight, is Nevada. Harris currently leads – if you can call it that – by less than 1 percentage point in this Sun Belt swing state. That being said, it is tricky to predict because it has more registered independent voters than Democrats or Republicans. However, with just 6 electoral votes, it is much less likely to be decisive.
Once decidedly blue, the Democrats have been winning presidential elections here by smaller and smaller margins since 2000. It is also the most diverse battleground state, and Harris has shrunk Trump’s lead since she took to the ticket.
Even though the US economy has shown strong growth and job creation since Biden took the presidency, the post-COVID recovery has been slower in Nevada than elsewhere. At 5.1%, the state has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country. Trump has been campaigning in the state to lower taxes and lessen regulations.
It’s war game time. Harris’ most obvious strategy is Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. But this would get her to exactly 270 votes, and only if she won all of the states Biden won in 2020. This is risky. Any misstep, even just losing Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, could lose her the presidency.
If she loses Pennsylvania, which she very well might, she’d need to pick up one of the two Sun Belt states and one of the two Southern states to win — so long as she still carries Michigan and Wisconsin. There’s also the chance she could repeat Biden’s 2020 victory, winning Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia -- though that would be quite a blowout.If Trump loses Pennsylvania, he could reach 270 by winning the two swing states where he is ahead the most, Georgia and Arizona, as well as Wisconsin, Nevada, and Michigan.
Trump’s easiest path to victory is blocking Harris in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. To do this, Trump would need to exceed his 2020 performance in suburban counties. But like Harris, this strategy of winning exactly 270 leaves no room for error. All that we really know is that whoever wins Pennsylvania will be well on their way to winning the White House.
FILE PHOTO: Tesla CEO and X owner Elon Musk, who supports Republican presidential nominee former U.S. President Donald Trump, gestures as he speaks about voting during an America PAC Town Hall in Folsom, Pennsylvania, U.S., October 17, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Musk doles out millions, Turkey talks Typhoon jets, Kenya delays high-level impeachment, Boeing makes progress with strikers
1 million: Elon Musk said Sunday that his political action committee supporting the Trump campaign, America PAC, will give $1 million to one registered voter in Pennsylvania every day until the election in a lottery among petition signers. The petition merely affirms support for the First and Second Amendments but also allows the PAC to gather voter data. Musk has donated $75 million to the PAC so far.
40: Despite strained ties, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan thanked German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for his efforts to push through a sale of 40 Eurofighter Typhoon jets when the two met on Saturday. He also expressed eagerness to increase trade with Berlin, which has the largest population of ethnic Turks in Europe, who make up an important expat voting bloc for Erdogan.
7: Kenya’s High Court on Friday suspended a resolution to impeach Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua for at least seven days, meaning he will remain in office until at least Oct. 24. Parliament had already approved Gachagua’s replacement, Kithure Kindiki, but the court said it needs time to decide whether the impeachment was lawful.
33,000: Troubled aircraft manufacturer Boeing reached a tentative deal that will send some 33,000 striking workers back to the assembly line after a five-week strike. The deal must be ratified by rank-and-file union members, who will vote Wednesday. They are looking at a 35% pay increase over four years but will not get their much-desired pension plan back after losing it in 2014.Tesla CEO and X owner Elon Musk reacts next to Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. president Donald Trump during a campaign rally, at the site of the July assassination attempt against Trump, in Butler, Pennsylvania, U.S., October 5, 2024.
Musk embraces “Dark MAGA” with race in a dead heat
Billionaire Elon Musk joined Donald Trump on stage in Butler, PA, on Saturday — where the former president was shot in July — to deliver a grim vision of America’s choice in the coming election, which he claimed “will be the last” if Trump loses.
Musk falsely claimed Democrats would “take away your freedom of speech … your right to bear arms … your right to vote,” and nodded at his extreme and conspiratorial tone. “As you can see I am not just MAGA — I am Dark MAGA,” he said.
Vice President Kamala Harris, on the other hand, used the weekend to make a micro media blitz, appearing on the extremely popular “Call Her Daddy” podcast and CBS’s “60 Minutes” on Sunday. She’s hitting both younger and older demos with those platforms, and is scheduled to talk to Stephen Colbert, Howard Stern, and “The View” this week.
With polls showing a race too close to call, every vote in the key swing states matters. It looks like it will come down to three crucial states: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. If Trump wins any one of the three, he’s likely to win the election, while Harris will probably need to hold all three to secure victory. She’s leading but well within the margin of error, according to 538’s poll aggregator: She’s ahead 1.6 percentage points in both Wisconsin and Michigan — and just 0.6 in Pennsylvania. We’ll see if Musk’s performance makes a difference.Indian Army soldiers participate in a mock drill exercise during the Army Day parade in New Delhi, India, January 15, 2016. India celebrated the 68th anniversary of the formation of its national army with soldiers from various regiments, and artillery on display on Friday.
Hard Numbers: Indian weapons find their way to Ukraine, Colombia halts peace talks with ELN, Trump and Harris tie in national poll, canoe operators soak folks in flood-hit region of Nigeria
11: For more than a year now, European countries have been buying Indian weapons and sending them to Ukraine for use against Russian invaders, according to 11 Indian and European defense officials interviewed in a Reuters exclusive. The juiciest bit? New Delhi – which has otherwise maintained good ties with Moscow – has refused Russia’s repeated requests to stop this from happening.
2: The Colombian government suspended peace talks with the Marxist rebels of the National Liberation Army, known by its Spanish acronym ELN, after an attack by the group killed two soldiers. Calling off talks with the ELN – which sat out the historic 2016 peace deal between the government and the larger FARC group – is another blow to leftist President Gustavo Petro’s promise of reaching “total peace” in the country. In July he was forced to scrap negotiations with another large faction of holdout militants.
47: With less than two months until Election Day, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are in a dead heat, tied at 47% apiece in a new national poll. In Pennsylvania, a key swing state, polls gave Harris an advantage of between one and four points. The margin of error in the state polls was just under 4 points.
80,000: People in the flood-battered northeastern Nigerian state of Borno are reeling at the price of canoe rides, with operators charging as much as 80,000 naira (about $50) for a short journey. To put that in perspective, that single ride would cost more than the local monthly minimum wage. Borno has suffered severe floods, and a related prison break, since a dam burst amid unusually heavy rains in Central and Eastern Africa.An entrance to the U.S. Steel Great Lakes Works plant is seen in Ecorse, Michigan, U.S., September 24, 2019. Picture taken September 24, 2019.
Nippon Steel’s US deal may be good business, but it’s bad politics
The Global Business Alliance, a group of multinational corporations, is urging the Biden administration to keep politics out of any national security review of Nippon Steel’s offer to buy U.S. Steel — but politics is precisely the problem.
The deal: Japan’s largest steel producer is offering over $14 billion to buy U.S. Steel, and on paper, it shouldn’t be a particularly painful process. The offer is a nice premium over where U.S. Steel’s stock is currently trading, and as Japan is among the US’ closest allies, under normal circumstances, government oversight would be only routine. So why did Nippon Steel have an executive in Washington last week to meet with concerned lawmakers?
Because this is 2024. U.S. Steel owns major plants in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two states US President Joe Biden must win in November to secure re-election – and the United Steelworkers union is mad enough to spit. Neither U.S. Steel nor Nippon Steel consulted the union as the deal was being negotiated, and union leadership is hammering management for selling out to a foreign-owned company.
So rather than a swift approval, Biden (and, it should be said, a bipartisan group of lawmakers) has expressed support for a review through the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, an agency set up to safeguard national security in major deals by foreign-owned corporations.
And, gosh, who knows how long that could take? GZERO’s crystal ball keeps pointing to a resolution sometime after Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Can Dems rebuild a blue fence in the Midwest?
In Midterm Matters, we look at hot-button US midterm news to separate the signal (need-to-knows) from the noise (the chatter).
Today, we head to the Rust Belt. Yes, that bunch of states that used to lean so reliably left that they were once called Dems' Blue Wall — until 2016, when Donald Trump smashed a red wrecking ball right through it to win the presidency.
Noise: Ohio has been aboard the red train since the Trump years. With industrial decline plaguing much of the region, we’ve seen plenty of chatter about Republicans gaining more traction as working-class voters switch allegiances to the GOP. But …
FiveThirtyEight forecasts that Democrats are leading in gubernatorial races in the three Rust Belt battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Witmer is ahead of Republican rival Tudor Dixon by the widest margin, with both school shootings and abortion as hot topics. Next, in Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro is leading his Republican opponent and 2020 election denier, Douglas Mastriano, in a tighter race that has controversially featured the role of religion in both men’s lives. Wisconsin, meanwhile, is a toss-up: Gov. Tom Evers (D) is only slightly ahead of his Republican challenger, Tim Michels, with lots of squabbling over crime figures.
Signal: While Republican congressional and presidential gains in the region are real, these gubernatorial races show us that Dems still have lasting strength in the Rust Belt.This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.