Dr. Al-Jufairi, K.’s Post

The collapse of the Barnier government indicates internal splits or the difficulty to sustain a parliamentary majority, particularly in a National Assembly lacking an absolute majority. The collapse of President Macron's appointed cabinet throws into doubt the effectiveness of his engagement policy with right-wing personalities (such as Barnier). This further alienates the moderate or reformist electorate, which is his primary support base. The presidential majority becomes a subordinate player in political decisions, especially if the opposition can impose legislative agendas or increase its political power. This is a significant setback for President Macron, both politically and institutionally. It undermines his administration while creating opportunity for the opposition, particularly the RN and the LFI. This is an important moment in his second term, risking prolonged legislative deadlock. The event highlights the social and political tensions that define today's France.

🇫🇷 The Far-Right won’t govern France: Le Pen/Bardella only 3rd after the Left (big win) and the Macronists (who hold) What if Macron’s strategy wasn’t a gamble? As his minority government was set to lose political support while facing a rising far right, he counterintuitively decided to accelerate that process as the best antidote against its full realization. Today’s electoral results proved him right, and despite the uncertainties linked to the formation of the next government, Macron remains in the picture as does his party. Isn't that what he sought for? Yet months of political gridlock could lie ahead. The most likely scenario is the left coalition to split and the moderate sides of the Socialists and the Greens forming a government with Macron’s Ensemble. The ongoing French electoral reshuffle coincides with major reconfiguration of EU political landscape. A result of this unexpected electoral result, Macron will continue to have a chance to shape not only France - albeit downsized in political influence - but also the EU, and to do that on the eve of the vote on VdL and the next College of Commissioners and new EU political agenda. #legislatives2024

With just days to go until France’s snap parliamentary election kicks off, victory for the far right looks increasingly likely in the first phase of the two-stage runoff. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and its allies are seen winning 36% of votes, signalling growing support for the party’s euroskeptic, anti-immigration agenda, according to the latest opinion polls from Elabe released ahead of the first vote on June 30. The shift away from centrist politics has spooked investors and analysts, who warn of implications ranging from “political paralysis” to “immediate financial crisis.” But predicting the outcome of France’s final vote on July 7 is less clear-cut, given the complexity of France’s voting system. I took a look at the likelihood of a far-right French victory and the impact for markets in my latest for CNBC International: #Frenchelections #politics #farright #LePen #Bardella #Macron

France's coalition aversion jeopardizes stability of any new government. France’s Aversion to Coalitions Risks Early Collapse of New Government In a recent development that has captured global attention and topped Google search trends today, France faces significant political instability as the country’s leaders continue to resist forming coalitions. This aversion to alliances could lead to the premature collapse of any new government. For more detailed information, refer to this news article. Snap Election and Political Stalemate On July 9, 2024, France held a snap election that resulted in a deeply fragmented National Assembly. The election brought forth three roughly equal political blocs, each unwilling to compromise or form what […] https://lnkd.in/dDK9QVcv https://lnkd.in/dJWQ6rRi

This Thursday we turn our attention once again to France. Many people in Brussels are watching this election closely following the French results in the EU Parliamentary polls. Now the Council is the legislator in focus for those in EU affairs as France decides how their own government will be composed. Our analysts will discuss the key pointers to watch: • What do the latest polls tell us about second round races? • Will France be put into Excessive Deficit Procedure during the campaign? • Will Le Pen continue to play by the Meloni playbook? • What are the chances of a right-wing coalition? • How likely can the left implement its disruptive fiscal programme? • What would happen in a hung parliament? 🗓 Thursday 20 June 🕒 15.00-15.30 🔗 https://lnkd.in/ewY6xgUH

France is at a turning point of its history. Except huge surprise, on Sunday July 7th evening, the country will start to be governed by an extreme-right political party, the "Rassemblement National" (RN). It will be the 1st time that France will be governed in such conditions since 1940. The problem now is to know if the RN will have an absolute or relative majority at the national assembly : number of seats : 577, absolute majority : 289. According to the 1st round of the election, an absolute majority for RN seems unlikely, which means that RN will seek for alliances with other right-wing parties ("Renaissance, President Macron's party and "Les Républicains" classical right party). The other problem will be the weight of the left-wing party "Front Populaire" (socialists, extreme-left, communists and ecologists), which, in any cases, will be inferior to the RN. This is also very important for Europe where yoy have today 2 countries, Hungary and Slovakia, which are leaded by extreme-right governments and whare we see a growth of extremists parties according to the last european elections. In fact, France is today a living political laboratory to study how an extreme-right party will run one of the most important european countries. There are, of course, a lot of withdrawal strategies working today, but, "at the end of the day", the people will decide themselves. This is democracy !! Next round : Sunday July 7th.

https://lnkd.in/dZFUtgpy "The more likely scenario, however, is that National Rally falls short of a majority, leaving France with a hung Parliament. Things would quickly become messy. As the biggest party, National Rally would still try to gather the support of other parties to pass legislation — but no one, perhaps besides a few defecting deputies from the right-wing Republicans, will want to enable the far right to govern. With a weakened Mr. Macron atop a fractious and uncooperative assembly, France would enter a profound political crisis with no remedy in sight. In the event of a hung Parliament, Mr. Macron would have very few options. No modern French president has faced a situation of such political and institutional blockage. His only option would be to attempt to bring about a so-called national unity government, comprising deputies from Renaissance, the Republicans and possibly some moderate deputies from the New Popular Front. But it’s doubtful that such an opportunistic gathering would reach a majority..."

During the years 2019-2024, the European Parliament was the protagonist of the second attempt in its history to initiate a reform process of the European institutions, which led to the approval of the text for the reform of the Treaties with the vote on 22 November 2023. At this historic moment, in 2024, after the #Covid pandemic, #Russia's aggression against #Ukraine and the rekindling of the long #conflict in the #MiddleEast, European citizens are going to vote again and will have to decide whether or not to renew their trust in political parties that want to empower Europe as federal, sovreign and democratic or against those who campaign for less Europe. This is the reason why we are so committed as European Federalists with our political campaign for the incomping European election: 1) with our political manifesto calling all political families to commit themselves to reform the Treaties through the opening of a Convention; https://lnkd.in/ez8QE2hs 2) with an analysis of the political manifestos of the various European political parties to show who is significantly committed to the reform of the Treaties and on which issues they are in favour or against; https://lnkd.in/eWXuVAUU 3) with a pledge that will be presented to as many candidates as possible asking for a direct commitment on the reform of the Treaties and to become a member of the next Spinelli Group; https://lnkd.in/enXeFYCy Follow our campaign here: https://lnkd.in/eSnTS4B8

On 9 June 2024, #Belgium elected not only the European Parliament but also a new national parliament as well as the three regional parliaments of Flanders, Wallonia and Brussels and the parliament of the German-speaking Community. The country has an asymmetrical party landscape with different political trends in Flanders and Wallonia: While the trend in the north is tending to strengthen in favour of the political fringes to the left and right of centre, the south of the country is moving further towards the political center. Read our analysis of the election outcome and the outlook here: https://lnkd.in/e4YZuHfT

There is talk about the AFRICAN NATIONAL CONGRESS pursuing a confidence and supply agreement rather than a full coalition. This means the ANC would agree with some political parties for support on important votes, particularly those concerning confidence and supply. Confidence refers to votes that determine if the government has majority support in parliament, such as votes of no confidence. Supply on the other hand involves financial votes like the budget and appropriation bills. This agreement doesn't grant the smaller party or parties ministerial positions but may involve negotiating policy concessions. If successful, this arrangement would be the best-case scenario for the ANC, given the opposition to an ANC-Democratic Alliance (DA) coalition by some within the former liberation movement. It would also allow the ANC to form and maintain a government for the next five years and possibly afford it a window of opportunity to pursue a renewal agenda in view of the recent electoral catastrophe. It remains to be seen if the ANC will have its way.