Despair Is Forbidden. We Must Not Fear

This reading of the geopolitical landscape and its local, regional, and global ramifications will not pretend to be a prediction of next year’s events; it is merely an analysis of developments and how they may affect grand policies.

A first glance, 2022 will potentially bring tensions that will dominate the early new, difficult year, for which 2021 has set a pessimistic stage. Nevertheless, there should be no hasty pessimism – and despair should be banished. We are partners in shaping the future and redefining stability, and must never be passive towards corrupt, inept, reckless, weak, or authoritarian leaders – all of whom are hostile in one way or another. We have no right to shirk our responsibility to participate in shaping out fates and decisions, especially when the means to do so are in our hands, from voting to speaking up, and from thinking outside the box to acting. And there are many reasons to hope for a year of positive change, astounding discoveries, and scientific and technological progress. There is always hope, faith, and wonder. There is always the beauty of nature and human relations, and the passion for rebuilding in the face of those who adopt destruction as a slogan, goal, and policy.

The year 2022 is set to begin under the shadow of the Covid-19 pandemic and the new Omicron variant. It will not be an easy beginning of a year the world had hoped would be the year to get rid of the virus, which has confiscated people’s plans for the past two years, leaving behind a trail of death, pain, and shattered dreams.

There are also signs of a global economic crisis in 2022, not just because of Covid-19 and Omicron, but also as a result of central bank policies, unemployment, inflation, and sectoral collapse. Naturally, many factors could preclude a major global economic crisis, including cash liquidity in the hands of consumers as a result of high levels of savings during the lockdown phases of the pandemic. However, economists warn of huge risks facing the world economy, including geopolitical and political tensions.

• Clearly, the crisis between Russia, and the United States and NATO, over Ukraine, is a risky gamble for Russia as much as it is a serious challenge for US and European leaders. As things stand, there is hope for defusing the crisis during the talks planned for 10 January in Geneva between Russia and NATO powers. But Russian experts close to the thinking of Vladimir Putin are not optimistic: While the NATO powers are hoping to begin prolonged talks without a timetable, President Putin wants something that resembles a treaty and written guarantees as quickly as possible, against an ultimatum of military action he has threatened in all seriousness (see last week’s column). The dangerous crisis carries risks of a new cold war and the return to the Iron Curtain in Russia. The geopolitical crisis has implications for Europe and the United States of course, but also for the policies of powers like China, which could benefit from the escalation between the West and Russia; and Iran, which may find relief from US and European pressures amid the prioritization of Ukraine and the standoff with Moscow.
• The absence of leadership in Europe will be an influential factor in European geopolitical and political turmoil. German former chancellor Angela Merkel played a crucial role leading Europe, and no European leader is qualified to step into her shoes. The new chancellor Olaf Scholz does not appear to be interested in the role and wants to focus on domestic challenges. French President Emmanuel Macron is crippled by the incoming election that could end his stint in power. European policies are scattered and hindered by the obligatory unanimity and are therefore ineffective in brokering solutions to regional crises, including in Libya, where Western efforts seeking to hold elections before 2022 have now failed.
• The crisis of weak American leadership, or at least, the growing global impression that there is a structural weakness in leadership under President Joe Biden at the level of both the president personally and his National Security and State Department teams. The world is accustomed to proactive, decisive, and strong American leadership and sees the Biden administration as appeasing, running after an absent European leadership, and afraid of decisiveness and leadership from the front. What could be new in 2022 will be seen after the mid-term elections in the Senate and the House, which could fall into the control of the Republicans. This will radically alter US policies. Such a development will increase pressures on President Biden and his team and could pave the way for the comeback of former President Trump to the US political arena.
• There will be no crisis of leadership in China. The 20th Congress of the ruling Communist Party this year will most likely re-elect President Xi Jinping. China will hence continue its wolf warrior diplomacy, including vis-à-vis Taiwan. This will create tensions with the United States and the West. In other words, there are signs of a crisis with China, not signs of Chinese international leadership.
• The Iranian crisis continues to dominate the regional landscape of the Middle East along with the Israeli crisis. The two are linked, amid clear tensions on account of the nuclear standoff and the development of conventional weapons in the balance of power between the two states. The Vienna talks could be a starting point into a breakthrough or could lead to a confrontation – the two outcomes are both possible. In the event of a breakthrough, a nuclear deal between Iran, and the US, China, Russia, Britain, France, and Germany, may not be acceptable to Israel. But it will defuse a scenario for direct military confrontation between Iran and Israel if the talks fail.
• The first message Tehran has been sending is that in case the JCPOA is not revived in exactly the same way it wants, it will accelerate its nuclear program, rendering Iran more dangerous.

The second message is that Iran today is not the same as Iran of yesteryear, in terms of its military capabilities, missiles, and nuclear program. Therefore the balance of power with Israel has shifted, and Iran is challenging the US-backed military edge that Israel maintains in the Middle East. The third message is that the Israeli threat of attacking Iranian nuclear sites – such as the reactor in Natanz – will lead to a counter attack. In other words, Iran has decided its response would be to attack nuclear sites inside Israel. This is a major new shift, if these threats are serious and not designed for domestic consumption. The fourth message is that Iran is not joking when it reiterates its commitment to the goal of destroying Israel. For the first time, it has developed its arsenal to the point that it can conduct multiple strikes on Israel using advanced rockets. The equation has changed, or that is the message Tehran wants to deliver to all those concerned. The fifth message is that the Iranian leadership is confident that the United States under Biden will not intervene militarily alongside Israel if a direct war were to erupt between them, but will stand aside and try to contain the conflict instead.

• Israel for its part believes that Iran is very close to acquiring nuclear weapons, and has become militarily formidable. Israel will not be able to sit idly by. A pundit close to Israeli thinking cited former Iranian President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani who once said that the fate of Israel was one bomb away, to stress that Israel will not wait around for that fateful bomb to come.

Some believe that cyber warfare will continue between Iran and Israel, as the latter steps up its intelligence and covert operations, including assassinations. These same voices believe that Iran will not seek war with Israel, because such a war would destroy Hezbollah and its arsenal in Lebanon, a precious card for Iran. Therefore, there will be no ‘real war’ between Iran and Israel, they further believe, as Israel has adopted a policy of turning a blind eye of what Hezbollah is doing inside Lebanon, while escalating against Iran and Hezbollah in Syria.

The other view is that Lebanon could indeed be the theatre for a direct war between Iran and Israel, because of Hezbollah and its arsenal there, and that a confrontation between the two would not be limited to a rocket war between Tel Aviv and Tehran. According to a source close to decision makers in Tehran, Iran has adopted a strategy that it will begin implementing from January 2022, namely, to expand and renew support for Hezbollah. According to the source’s estimations, Iran will be ready for attacks using missiles, drones, and Hezbollah’s capabilities in a war that will not “be over in one day” but will be “a serious military conflict between Iran and Israel that could erupt in February or March” if the nuclear negotiations in Vienna fail. Or so the leadership in Iran wants us to believe and fear.

Thus the new year will be conceived in anxiety. It will be a difficult year on account of the pandemic, and the geopolitical and economic troubles ahead. Yet the best way to adapt and defy, and shape our destiny, is to not fear. Let us then embrace a faith in a better future between the folds of sadness and anxiety, and refuse to submit to destruction and fearmongering whatever its source.

We must not fear.