The future of Gaza
- A broader regional conflict with potential for serious consequences is a real possibility, following the Russian invasion.
- Iran has stated that it will not remain passive if the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) enter Gaza.
- Hamas is pushing Iran and Hezbollah towards involvement in the conflict to maintain their credibility, with a delicate balance required to avoid a large-scale escalation.
- The USA has positioned three aircraft carriers between the Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf, indicating a commitment to take action, potentially driven by electoral considerations.
- Al-Qaeda and ISIS have called for attacks on Israeli, US, and Jewish targets. They must reaffirm their relevance beyond local contexts.
- The risk of escalation resembles algorithmic triggers similar to those seen in the First World War.
- There are reports of growing numbers of thwarted attacks in Europe and increased threats to US troops in the Middle East, leading to deployment of THAAD and Patriot air defense systems in the Gulf region and the dispatch of soldiers and strategists to advise on operations in Gaza.
- Israel might aim for attrition to eliminate fundamentalist militiamen, drawing them from across the Middle East.
- Both sides of the conflict may believe they have set perfect traps for their opponents, heightening the risk of escalation.
- Still, Jordan, Egypt, and Iraq's ruling classes, as well as nations that signed the Abraham Accords, maintain neutrality. Saudi Arabia has only temporarily suspended its rapprochement to Israel.
- Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and Egypt prioritize relations with the US over the Palestinian cause.
- Russia and China have strong ties with Israel and, despite criticizing civilian casualties in Gaza, neither has directly condemned Israel.
- Hezbollah is in a precarious position in Lebanon and under the scrutiny of the US fleet.
BEST SCENARIO
- If escalation can be avoided, previously unthinkable opportunities may arise for Lebanon and Palestine.
- The US and Israel are considering establishing an interim government in Gaza without Hamas, under UN auspices, and gradually transferring government tasks to the Palestinian Authority.
- If achieved, this could lead to the attraction of substantial Chinese, Arab, Russian, and Western capital for local reconstruction and pacification.
Avvocato presso Ravenna
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