Ukraine's Arms Monitor #28: 08.07 - 14.07.2024

At the NATO summit in Washington, Ukraine did not receive an invitation to join the Alliance but instead got several new military aid pledges, particularly from the US, Norway, and Canada. The allies continue delivering assistance under various defense coalitions, while Ukraine is further cementing its military cooperation by signing new security agreements, which now total over 20.

While Ukraine is desperately waiting for the F-16 jets promised for "this summer," Russia is using this window of opportunity to deliberately target Ukraine’s military airfields and civilian infrastructure, including energy facilities and children's hospital.

Military transfers to Ukraine & military cooperation:

• During summit in Washington, NATO agreed on plan to coordinate security assistance, training for Ukraine. NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU), will be comprised of approximately 700 personnel from NATO Allied nations and select partners. It will consist of a NATO command, located at a US facility in Wiesbaden, and at Logistical nodes in the Eastern part of the Alliance under a 3-Star General reporting to Supreme Allied Commander Europe, SACEUR. Also it was announced that the U.S. will start deploying long-range fires units to Germany in 2026. The long-range fires capabilities will include the SM-6 and Tomahawk missiles and "developmental hypersonic weapons".
• On July 11, the US Department of Defence revealed that Ukraine will get another US$225 million in military aid. The capabilities in this announcement include: one Patriot battery; munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS); Stinger anti-aircraft missiles; ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS); 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds; Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) equipment and missiles; Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems; small arms ammunition; demolitions munitions; and spare parts, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment.
• Canada announced a new military aid package worth 500 million CAD for Ukraine during a NATO summit in Washington. Also Canada allocated up to 389 million CAD to enhance F-16 pilot training through the Ukraine Defense Contact Group Air Force Capability Coalition. 
• Australia announced 250 million Australian dollars ($168 million) in military assistance for Ukraine. The package will include air defense missiles, air-to-ground weapons, including guided weapons, anti-tank weapons, shells, ammunition, and military boots.
• Italian Prime Minister pledged $1.7 billion as part of NATO support for Ukraine in 2025.
• Portugal's aid to Ukraine will reach more than 220 million EUR this year. The same amount will also be allocated in 2025.
• Ukraine and Romania signed a 10-year security agreement. The deal brings the total number of long-term bilateral agreements Kyiv has signed with partners to 23. A special feature of this agreement is specific points of cooperation to strengthen security in the Black Sea region.
• Ukraine and Luxembourg signed security agreement. The agreement outlines Luxembourg's military aid to Ukraine over the next ten years, maintaining the same support level as now, with Luxembourg providing Ukraine 80 million euros ($86 million) this year. It also highlights Luxembourg's role in enhancing Ukraine's IT capabilities and providing support in satellite technology, intelligence, and surveillance.
• The Netherlands will contribute €20 million to the Drone Coalition fund. The money will go towards the supply of one million FPV drones to Ukraine.
• New Zealand will provide aid amounting to 16 million New Zealand dollars (9.8 million USD) to Ukraine. Specifically, Wellington will allocate 3.68 million dollars for military aid and another 6.12 million dollars for humanitarian aid.
• On July 9, Norway announced that it will donate spare parts for Sea King helicopters to Ukraine. Also Norway decided to provide an additional NOK 1 billion in funding for air defence systems, and to transfer six F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. The deliveries of aircraft will start during 2024.
• On July 8, Ukraine and Poland signed a security agreement. Poland committed to providing several packages of military assistance by the end of 2024 and to continue to assist Ukraine over the next 10 years of the agreement. Warsaw will also consider supplying Ukraine with at least an additional MiG-29 squadron, according to the document. For the first time among the bilateral security agreements already signed, the document enables the interception of missiles and drones in Ukraine’s airspace fired in the direction of Poland.
• Germany updated its lists of military assistance to Ukraine with: ammunition for main battle tank LEOPARD 1; 1 air defence systems PATRIOT with spare part; PATRIOT missiles; 2 air surveillance radar TRML-4D; 9,000 rounds ammunitions for self-propelled anti-aircraft guns GEPARD (from Bundeswehr and industry stocks); 55,000 rounds 155mm ammunition (from Bundeswehr and industry stocks); 30 reconnaissance drones VECTOR with spare parts; 200 mobile drone jammers; 10 unmanned surface vessels; 1 armoured recovery vehicle Bergepanzer 2 with spare parts; 4 mine clearing tanks WISENT 1 with spare parts; 58,000 rounds ammunition 40mm; 93,000 smoke grenades; 800 assault rifles MK 556; 10 precision rifles HLR 338 with 240,000 rounds ammunition; 150 rifles CR 308; 250 machine guns MG5.
• Ukraine and Sweden are negotiating the provision of Saab JAS-39 Gripen fighters to Kyiv.
• Lithuania delivered ammunition, anti-drones, field beds to Ukraine.
• Czech President announced that the Czech Republic will send Ukraine 50,000 rounds of ammunition in July and August. From September to the end of the year, Ukraine will receive 80,000 to 100,000 rounds of ammunition per month. This initiative is part of the Czech Republic's plan to supply half a million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine in 2024
• UK hasn’t allowed Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles inside Russia, MoD clarifies.
• Kyiv expects to get up to 20 F-16s in 2024, Bloomberg reports.
• The permission for Ukraine to strike inside Russia with Danish-supplied F-16s will "depend on the circumstances," Danish Prime Minister said while confirming that it will be allowed in some cases.

Military production and internal affairs of Ukraine:

• Ukroboronprom State Concern has completed tests of artillery 155-mm ammunition and is preparing for their serial production in the second half of 2024.
• Ukraine has attracted $675 million from partner countries for the production of artillery, armored vehicles, drones, and other Ukrainian-made weapons.
• The Danish government will fund the production of 18 Ukrainian 2S22 Bohdana wheeled howitzers to be put into service with the Defense Forces.

Russia and its allies:

• A Kremlin spokesman said the stationing of Tomahawk and hypersonic weapons in Europe was a “very serious threat to our national security.” He also said that European capitals would be the “potential victims” if they hosted U.S. long-range missiles.
• On July 14, Russia and China started joint naval drills at a Chinese military point in Zhanjiang, the Chinese Defense Ministry reported.
• India’s Prime Minister Modi arrived in Russia on Monday July 8 for his first visit to the country since Moscow began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. At a summit between India and Russia, both countries said they were committed to deepening the relationship. 
• Russia and Iran continue to signal their commitment to deepening bilateral relations and multilateral cooperation - ISW.
• Belarus joins the Shanghai Cooperation Organization led by Russia and China; Chinese and Belarusian militaries conduct joint drills near NATO and Ukraine borders.
• After footage of children being pulled from hospital compound rubble triggered outrage, the Kremlin adopted and has stuck to an official line that it was a Ukrainian surface-to-air missile that hit the Okhmatdyt hospital.

Major developments:

• On July 8, a children's hospital in Kyiv has been hit by missiles as Russia unleashed a deadly barrage across Ukraine. The missile hitting the hospital was identified as Russian Kh-101. Experts established that it was intact while landing on the hospital, and it was fully controlled by Russians.
• Russia is targeting Ukrainian airfields before the first of Ukraine's F-16s arrive.
• Russia will attack Ukraine again from the north, Ukraine's intelligence chief Budanov said.

Other news:

• The United Nations General Assembly demanded that Russia "urgently withdraw its military and other unauthorized personnel" from Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and return it to the full control of Ukrainian authorities.
• According to experts and Ukrainian officials, the Kh-101 Russian missile that destroyed a Kyiv children’s hospital relies on western-designed components. Ukrainian analysis of a Kh-101 fired in January revealed 16 pieces of western-made electronics inside the missile. Two of the components were branded as made by Switzerland-headquartered STMicroelectronics, with the remainder made by US chipmakers including Texas Instruments, Analog Devices and Intel.
• U.S. intelligence discovered that Russia planned to assassinate the chief executive of German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, which has been producing artillery shells and military vehicles for Ukraine.
• Finnish authorities reported an increase in GPS "malfunctions" in the past week and that most disruptions to aviation and maritime GPS and radar originate from within Russia. Russia's apparent GPS jamming is likely part of Russia's intensifying hybrid campaign directly targeting NATO states likely aimed at undermining support for Ukraine and NATO unity - ISW.
• Poland has begun preparing the first Ukrainian Legion of volunteers with "several thousand" people already having registered to participate.

Opinion and analysis:

• This is how Ukraine can – and can’t – use its F-16s (Chris York for The Kyiv Independent). The F-16s will likely have two main roles, experts said, one defensive and one offensive. Looking at the big picture, the Ukrainian national air defense commanders might try to use the short-range guns – like the Gepard – to kill the Shaheds, use the F-16s to kill the cruise missiles, the older SAMs to kill the ballistic missiles, and the Patriots to kill the Kinzhals. In an offensive role, F-16s could be used to replicate one of Russia's more successful military innovations used during the full-scale invasion – glide bombs. 
• What lies behind arms talks between India’s Modi and Russia’s Putin? (Alex Gatopoulos for AlJazeera). For the past decade, India has focused on boosting its own military-industrial complex, telling international defence contractors that “Made in India” is a priority and saying technology transfers to Indian companies are a core part of any deal, whether with Russia or somewhere else. However, India’s armed forces still rely heavily on armoured divisions and 97 percent of its 3,740 tanks are Russian-made.
• Why Thermite Is Drone Bombers’ New Favorite Weapon (David Hambling for Forbes). The combination of drones and thermite is a powerful one because the drone’s precision delivery can out the thermite exactly where it will have the greatest effect. And even a small grenade can start a big fire.
• Opinion: How corrupt is public procurement in Ukraine? (Andrii Borovyk for The Kyiv Independent). Ukraine introduced Prozorro, an electronic procurement system implemented in 2016, as part of broader reforms to increase transparency and combat corruption. Just a few months ago, for example, the Ukrainian government transitioned the process of defense procurement to Prozorro to ensure stable supply, transparent pricing, and increased security. But to what extent has the Prozorro system addressed concerns over the transparency of Ukraine’s public procurement processes?
• The age of drone warfare is disrupting the defence industry (Sylvia Pfeifer, John Paul Rathbone, and Christopher Miller for FT). Rapidly evolving technology designed by smaller players is challenging the dominance of sluggish industry giants. Traditional weapons programmes take years, sometimes decades, to develop and rely on substantial government budgets as well as large research and testing facilities. By contrast, drones are cheap, lethal and quick to make, helping to level the field between smaller players and established industry giants.
• MAGURA V5 Drone Most Effective Against Russian Ships, Polish Study Reveals (Julia Struck for Kyiv Post). MAGURA V5 drones hit 14 Russian ships, and destroyed eight in the Russo-Ukrainian war, marking a global first in ship destruction by unmanned vehicles.

Multimedia:

• The Low-Budget Tech That Redefined Ukraine's Fight (Bloomberg Originals). When Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukrainians taped grenades to drones to kill the advancing invaders. In the years since, the strategy has spawned a high-tech industry critical to slowing the Kremlin's advance.
• How did Russia break through Kyiv air defense to hit children’s hospital? (Kyiv Independent). Fabian Hoffmann, a defense expert and doctoral research fellow at the University of Oslo, explains how Russian forces managed to evade advanced air defenses in Kyiv to strike the hospital, whether Moscow has developed a new tactic of air attacks, and why Ukraine needs to be allowed to hit targets deep inside Russia.