Why Donald Trump Is Also Under Scrutiny, Not Just Joe Biden

The assassination attempt of former President Donald Trump this week has brought in a further need for sobriety for both Democrats and Republicans. We shall need to watch whether this development will become a pivotal change in the contentious presidential race which is bringing to America a dangerous hysteria.

 Next week, all eyes will be on former U.S. President Donald Trump’s performance at the Republican National Convention, just as much as on any decision current President Joe Biden might make about remaining the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate or stepping down.

Both men face the toughest tests of their careers: While Biden’s decision will be a critical testament to his character, Trump’s handling of Biden’s situation will also have implications for the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections on November 4.

We are about to witness a long, intriguing scenario play out, full of twists and turns, captivating a world eager for every detail of the U.S. presidential elections. The implications extend far beyond domestic concerns, affecting relations with Russia, China, NATO countries, the Middle East, and the Gulf—from the conflict in Ukraine and the bloody war in Gaza to the new Cold War between the East and the West.

But first let’s pause at the NATO summit in Washington. This event may not interest American voters due to its complexities, yet everyone was watching Biden’s performance at the press conference at the end of the summit.

President Biden sees the evolution of NATO into a strong, confident alliance—daring to challenge Russia, supporting Ukraine with advanced weapons, expanding into the Middle East with an office in Jordan, and into Asia with a foothold in Japan—as a success story for his presidency and a historic milestone for himself.

Last week, while people were preoccupied with Biden’s gaffes and the possibility of his stepping down, NATO was making significant decisions with global ramifications. NATO is expanding its strategic presence worldwide, mobilizing massive support for Ukraine, including providing F-16 aircraft. Germany agreed to host missiles on its soil. And the alliance signaled that it could allow Ukraine to use Western weapons to strike deep into Russia, not just at the borders.

At the Washington summit, NATO was clear about its stance toward Russia and China, labeling Russia as the primary adversary and China as a secondary threat due to its military cooperation with Russia in the Ukraine war. NATO countries are resolved to persevere and put up a fight when necessary, while increasing military and political pressure on countries cooperating with China and Russia.

The NATO summit provided significant political and strategic ammunition for President Biden, which he will undoubtedly use when presenting the Democratic Party’s vision for America, its future, and its leading role in the world.

Biden’s team is working tirelessly to achieve a lasting accomplishment for his political legacy as well as his electoral prospects. He is correcting some of his previous mistakes and has become more assertive and clearer that the war in Gaza must stop, even if temporarily. Biden’s team, including CIA Director William Burns and top Gulf and Middle East advisor Brett McGurk, is insisting on achieving a breakthrough in the Gaza negotiations by next week, showing more firmness with all stakeholders and mediators. This success is crucial for Biden at this moment, and his team has become less lenient and patient.

The presidential elections in the Islamic Republic of Iran have resulted in outcomes reflecting a preference in the regime for the Democratic Party to remain in the White House. But Biden’s team has conveyed to the Iranians that the way to achieve this is by facilitating a ceasefire in Gaza, where the Iranian Revolutionary Guard can influence Hamas to agree to the desired agreement quickly. This urgent message to Iran carries significant political implications.

Former President Donald Trump remains largely removed from U.S. foreign policy issues, except for maintaining the established positions of both Republicans and Democrats and loyalty to the Israeli ally, especially during the election season. His primary interests are domestic, from immigration to the economy, to the deep divisions within American society.

Trump will face a tough test with the start of the Republican National Convention on Monday, July 15 particularly as the world will be fixated on learning how the very close assassination attempt has impacted him. Has it tempered him or further agitated him?

Typically, Trump has reacted to the unfolding Democratic drama by mocking Joe Biden in an effort to rally naive populism behind him. But regardless of whether Biden’s issues stem from old age or symptoms of a condition that limits his mental acuity, mockery is a disrespectful strategy that lacks respect for aging and human decency. We all have loved ones who suffer from illnesses and old age, but that should not erase their dignity. Donald Trump better respect Joe Biden’s dignity, no matter their political differences and regardless of the heated battle for the White House, or this will undoubtedly backfire sooner or later.

Joe Biden will also have to show less contempt for his opponent which shows him as vicious and vengeful. He will need to watch that particularly after the attempt to assassinate Trump.

One of Trump’s problems is his narcissism and sense of superiority, which could stray into the pathological if not contained. He is inherently insular, arrogant, and vainglorious. He does not believe in consultations with a team or agencies because he makes decisions before consulting and is impulsive by nature. None of this negates his sharp intelligence and extraordinary capabilities that brought him to the U.S. presidency and could return him there.

His secret is not only understanding the art of deal-making but also being visionary at times, successfully negotiating understandings, swimming against the current, and clarifying the consequences of hostilities without fear or hesitation.

One reason Trump avoids making commitments and fixed promises is that he hates anything that binds his hands and restricts his freedom to make decisions whenever he wants.

Advisors in the Republican Party and his close circle are advising him to seize the opportunity of this week’s party convention to present himself in a manner that aligns with the challenges and opportunities presented by the turmoil within the Democratic Party and by the attempt on his life.

In other words, Trump has an opportunity this week to rebrand from a figure shouting slogans to a calm, visionary leader. It would benefit him to present clear programs that the American voter can understand and influence undecided voters who are skeptical about him and his populist rhetoric. No matter what happens within the Democratic Party, whether Biden insists on staying in the race or steps down, this is an opportunity for Trump to emerge from the Republican National Convention with a different personality, pivoting away from mockery to a program that convinces Americans of its soundness.

After that, the election campaigns will inevitably take a sharper, more bitter turn, focusing on personal and political attacks, and even dirty tactics that have become acceptable in American politics. This will continue for the next four months, but this week presents a unique opportunity for Donald Trump. It is also a unique opportunity to keep an eye on Joe Biden and Democratic Party leaders, especially former President Barack Obama.

The stakes, assumptions, and theories about what happens next are many. For Republicans, attention will turn to whom Donald Trump will choose as vice president, with increasing talk about Florida Senator Marco Rubio, but this is a secret that Trump alone might know as he works on forming the team that could accompany him from the convention to the White House.

For Democrats, Vice President Kamala Harris’s chances are increasing, whether Biden continues his candidacy or decides to step down. The Democratic machinery has started a new round of marketing her credentials, portraying her as a strong woman, whereas she was until recently seen as a figure without identity. Kamala Harris is loyal to Joe Biden and appears to be an extension of him in the status quo equation,

A seasoned observer of the American scene, who is betting that Biden will not step down, summarized today’s scene as follows: The Democratic Party leadership will stick with President Biden because he represents stability and is inherently risk-averse. Conversely, Donald Trump is an unpredictable man whose actions cannot be anticipated.

There is no indication yet that President Joe Biden might resign from his current position, as some are suggesting. However, if it happens, Kamala Harris will take over as acting president while the Democratic Party machinery decides her electoral strategy. Kamala Harris might be the best option, given the short time and her four-year experience in the White House. California Governor Gavin Newsom has also been floated as a favorite.

The Democratic Party’s disarray could present a unique opportunity for the Republican Party in these elections. This requires a different strategy and a new language that appreciates the history of those who have served in the U.S. presidency without exaggeration—either in undue praise or in mockery of infirmity or age that ultimately only diminishes the mocker, or in assassination attempts that make a mockery of democracy.