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Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and European Council President Charles Michel pose for a picture during a European Union summit back in February.
EU to Ukraine: Let’s get this started
The European Union agreed Thursday to open accession talks with Ukraine, overcoming opposition from Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán, who briefly left the room in a pre-arranged move as other member states voted unanimously in favor.
President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the news, tweeting that it was "A victory for all of Europe. A victory that motivates, inspires, and strengthens."
The EU will also open talks with former Soviet Moldova and granted EU candidate status to Georgia.
To be clear, it will be many years before Ukraine joins, if ever: The process entails dozens of political, financial, and regulatory benchmarks that all 27 member states must recognize every step of the way.
It was a symbolic win for Zelensky at a tough time. With his counteroffensive against Russian invaders bogged down, he’s been fighting to keep up support from the US and the EU, his two main backers. It also helped boost morale at home and in the trenches.
But that win was quickly followed by another setback late Thursday as Orbán blocked the additional long-term €50 billion aid package the EU was debating for Ukraine. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said the matter would be raised again in early 2024 and that he was "fairly confident we can get a deal early next year."
Ukraine shows success with long-range drone attacks against Russia
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics.
How is Ukraine doing in the war?
Well, they seem to be making incremental gains on the ground in the south of Ukraine against the Russian occupation forces. But most spectacular, of course, have been the successes they've had with long-range drone attacks in big numbers, where they have been successful in attacking Russian air bases 700 kilometers away from the territory of Ukraine, causing significant damage to significant Russian assets. That's a new dimension of the war. And it shows that Ukraine has the ability to develop new technology on its own, independent of the very important support that they're getting from Europe and from the United States.
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Should Ukraine be offered NATO membership?
Finnish leaders know how to have a good time, which is probably why Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto recently sat down with Ian Bremmer to discuss Finland’s NATO accession.Threats from the Kremlin had kept Finland (and Sweden) from joining the alliance for 75 years. But the invasion of Ukraine changed all that. In May, Finland’s long-serving President Sauli Niinistö rang his old friend, Vladimir Putin. “It’s not me, it’s you,” Niinistö intimated to the Russian leader.
Putin reacted calmly, and those decades of threats have resulted in … zilch. Haavisto says Putin is too preoccupied with the Ukraine offensive to worry about Finland – he notes that Finns can see Russia moving its military away from their border, presumably to beef up reinforcements on the frontlines.
But that doesn’t mean joining NATO has been smooth sailing for the land of a thousand lakes. A surprise hiccup came from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has an axe to grind with the Nordics over things like their alleged support for a Kurdish group in Syria they say is linked to the PKK, which Ankara regards as a terrorist group. Erdoğan said neither Finland nor Sweden should be allowed to join NATO while harboring “terrorists.” But the three came to a tentative agreement in June to move forward with the membership process.
The Finns’ bid to join NATO was fueled by its changing security situation when the neighbor with whom Finland shares an 830-mile border suddenly brought war back to the continent. So imagine how Ukraine has felt for years … Sure, the members of NATO have now welcomed Ukraine’s bid to join. But in retrospect, should membership have been extended to Kyiv before now?
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Afghanistan earthquake adds to woes on economy, hunger & women's rights
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60:
Will the Afghan earthquake worsen the situation there?
It is a pretty substantial earthquake. Looks like hundreds are dead. And of course, this is on the back of the Taliban taking over, the economy falling apart, a lot of food stress and women being knocked back into the Stone Age. So much that had been fought for over 20 years, trillions of dollars spent. The focus of course recently has been all about Ukraine. And of course the global impact there is much bigger, but we should not forget that the reality of life at Afghanistan today for anyone that wants to be a free citizen and particularly for women and young women is absolutely unconscionable. Not a lot of support after the initial outreach for those that are trying to get out to become refugees to be welcomed in other countries. This is a disaster. It deserves humanitarian aid, even though it has to go through the Taliban and certainly deserves allowing more Afghans to get out. That is a big problem.
Is Putin back to the world stage in Beijing's summit?
I would say that Putin has never left the world stage. He's left the stage for the advanced industrial economies. He is becoming a pariah when we talk about the G7, the United States and rich democracies. And there over time, he's being cut off and he's being cut off very hard. That's very different from India or China or Brazil or any developing country that needs Russia for oil, needs Russia for food, needs Russia for fertilizer. They are not going to be those that were buying lots of defense equipment from Russia. That's not going to happen to the same degree because they won't have the semiconductors. They won't have the spare parts. That's really going to hurt.
But I do think that a recognition on the part of the United States and allies, there are a lot of countries around the world, many of which are democracies that are still very happy to work with Putin. That's a big deal. There's a friend of mine that recently had a meeting with the South African president. And when he sat down, he was like, "I want to thank you so much for teaching us about this country we'd never heard of before." Of course, he was talking about Ukraine and he was being very sarcastic, precisely because the fact that the Americans and others are trying to get the South Africans to pay attention to Ukraine when the South Africans have been trying to get other countries to pay attention to Africa, and those countries have paid very little attention. That's always an issue.
How likely will Ukraine, speaking of Ukraine, get its EU membership?
I think it's almost certain that they will get a unanimous vote in favor of EU candidacy. The process to get from candidacy to membership is very long and requires an awful lot of both economic reform in Ukraine, but also political leverage on other countries because one can keep them held up. Keep in mind, Turkey's been a candidate member for how long, and they never became an actual member of the EU and it's not going to happen. So there is that issue. But frankly, as a candidate member of the European Union, what that does mean is the Europeans are saying that they, as the EU will be at war with Russia. That's a big deal and that is going to affect what Russia's relations are going to be like permanently with the EU going forward, unless I'm wrong and there's some breakthrough negotiation with the Ukrainians, but I just don't see it, no time in the future.
Ukraine & Moldova are on the path to EU membership
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective from Hostomel Airport, just outside of Kyiv.
What's going to be the impact of the EU decision to grant Ukraine and Moldova the status of candidate countries?
Well, it is a momentous decision because it opens the door for EU membership, something that quite a number of the EU member states have been reluctant to discuss previously, because they considered rightly to be such an enormous undertaking for the future, that it would be sort of too much for the European Union to be able to do in the years ahead. But now that decision will be taken, and that is something that will shape policies for quite some time to come. There's no guarantee. Things can go wrong in the meantime. Turkey is an example of that. And it's a long slog ahead to align with all of the policies and the practices of the European Union in the years ahead. Part of that has already been done with the free trade agreement, the DCFTA, that was after some controversy, to put it very mildly, signed in 2014, but now the door will be open and the road to EU membership will begin. But before that, need to say, the war that was begun here at this very spot, will have to be won. And we are very far from that as of yet.
Ukrainian kids celebrate International Children's Day In Krakow, Poland.
War, reforms & bureaucracy will decide Ukraine’s EU bid
It’s at war for its survival, yet Ukraine’s candidacy for European Union membership has just been endorsed. While success would be a game-changer for Kyiv, getting there won’t be easy, given the required internal reforms, international bureaucracy, and shifting geopolitics.
The European Commission is clear that Ukraine must carry out serious reforms to join the bloc, but some tough questions need to be answered. Does Ukraine deserve to be an EU member? What about the stringent process and requirements? Is there a natural tie-in to NATO membership? And what are the politics at play, given that Moldova, another former Soviet republic Russia considers to be in its sphere of influence, has been approved, while Georgia has not.
Does Ukraine deserve EU membership? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the announcement from Brussels, tweeting that it’s “the 1st step on the EU membership path that’ll certainly bring our Victory closer.”
But connecting Kyiv’s bid for membership to the war isn’t just a Zelensky-era policy; Ukrainians have long noted that they have paid with their lives for their European aspirations, which helped trigger Russia’s intervention in Ukrainian-controlled territory in 2014. Even European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has acknowledged that Ukrainians are “ready to die” for their pan-European objectives.
What are the processes and requirements? Candidacy is the first seal of approval for membership, but certainly not the last, and it’s no guarantee of success. What is guaranteed, however, is a lot of bureaucracy. In a process that may take a decade — Finland was the quickest to get EU membership in under three years, while Cyprus was the slowest at almost 14 years — final approval must be agreed to unanimously by all 27 member states.
Negotiations involve some serious heavy lifting. Brussels premises membership on several conditions that will require massive judicial and governance overhauls in Kyiv. The big ones are:
- An independent judiciary
- An effective anti-corruption campaign
- Free media laws
- Curbing influential oligarchs
- Laws against money-laundering
- Protection of minorities
These conditions are further split into specific “chapters” of reform — and every chapter will have its own monitoring and assessment phase, the completion of which will also require unanimous approval.
“Successful applicants generally have to deal with issues like corruption and the rule of law, media freedom, and oligarchism,” says Jason Bush, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group. “And although, of course, there's a lot of international sympathy with Ukraine at the moment, these problems are endemic in Ukraine.”
Ukraine’s post-Soviet-era systemic flaws — premised mostly on the oversized and often corrupt links between political and business interests in government and the judiciary, are not easily corrected. The country is currently under martial law, which means no elections or free media, while the war is ongoing.
“It’s not a perfect democracy either,” says Bush, claiming that there are issues with political competition, and Zelensky, as a wartime president, can easily, for example, issue a decree against a pro-Russia party, which would create the question of political competition — a crucial yardstick for EU membership,
There is also the thorny issue of migration, which doesn’t resonate well in many parts of the EU.
“Do people really want to give free movement of labor to, you know, 50 million Ukrainians? Migration from Eastern Europe has been a source of political tension in many European countries. It's one of the factors that Brexit brings up,” says Bush. Considering Ukraine’s huge population and relative poverty compared to the other parts of the continent, opening up Europe’s borders is a “serious political obstacle” because of the economic cost of integration.
As for reforms, although it’s unrealistic for Kyiv to implement reforms before hostilities cease, Ukraine has already managed to adopt and implement almost 70% of the EU’s laws — aka the acquis — since signing a bevy of political and trade agreements with Brussels in 2014.
Is EU membership tied to NATO? Remember, Russia’s red line is Ukraine joining NATO. Twenty-one of the EU’s 27 member states are in NATO (with new aspirants Finland and Sweden, that’ll be 23). Put simply, some NATO members are EU members, but most EU members are in NATO.
While Zelensky has walked back its intentions of joining NATO, NATO leaders met on the same day the European Commission announced Kyiv’s EU candidacy to discuss further integrating Ukraine into NATO’s ambit. They announced a comprehensive assistance package to improve Ukraine’s interoperability with NATO forces by transitioning it from Soviet-era to modern NATO weaponry. Ukraine may not be a member but is surely being armed like one.
Moreover, the EU now openly coordinates with NATO for tackling threats, from cybersecurity to disinformation, but pursues cooperation on military mobility so that “NATO forces can cross borders faster and more easily when needed.” Importantly, even discounting the all-for-one-and-one-for-all joint defense agreement in NATO’s Article 5, the latest EU and NATO agreements mean that Ukraine doesn’t have to be a NATO member to enjoy NATO benefits, especially if it becomes an EU member.
On Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow didn’t have a problem with Ukraine’s economic integration with Europe, but that it’s concerned about its territory being used for military purposes by Europe.
“The Russians are obsessed with NATO's expansion and NATO membership [for Ukraine],” says Bush. “Right now, It doesn't look like they are regarding joining the EU in the same way … But, you know, what else can Russia do? It's already invaded.”
Continental politics. The fact that the EU’s big three — Germany, France, and Italy — were in Kyiv a day before the EU announced Kyiv’s candidacy, with the oft-skeptical Dutch also making encouraging noises, means that the EU’s naysayers and the expansionists are getting over their differences.
But Moldova and Georgia — two former Soviet states that applied for EU membership soon after Russia invaded Ukraine, fearing they might be Putin’s next targets — saw mixed results. Moldova was granted candidacy — “a direct shot across Russia’s bow,” according to Ian Bremmer — but not Georgia. How were these decisions made?
According to Bush, Moldova’s closer connection to the war in Ukraine — some believe the Russians plan to advance and link up with the breakaway region of Transnistria — makes it a more likely EU candidate, compared to Georgia.
“The fear that Moldova is potentially a Russian target is making the EU more, not less, determined to publicly offer this support,” says Bush. Thus, the ongoing geopolitical shifts in Eastern Europe clearly weigh into the EU’s calculus, in addition to domestic politics in those countries. The fact that Georgia’s democratic record is more tarnished than Moldova’s doesn’t help its case either, he added.
Ukraine’s bid for candidacy needs a unanimous vote by the European Council on June 23-24 to move forward. Given the current sympathies for the country, it will probably go through. But the larger question is how long it'll take.
In the unwieldy structure of the EU, fates linger and issues simmer. Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Turkey are all membership candidates but have everything from bilateral disputes (such as North Macedonia vs. EU member state Bulgaria) to autocratic leadership (like Turkey) slowing their applications.
Turkey’s membership complications are a yardstick for the political hurdles to come. Granted candidacy in 1999, Ankara began accession talks in 2005. But since President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s estrangement from the West, the process has been dead in the water.
Naturally, the path is going to be different for Ukraine, a contemporary darling of the West. But with its complicated and corrupt internal dynamics, compounded by the ongoing war, Europe’s attitude towards immigration and an incoming recession, the road between Kyiv and Brussels looks long and arduous.
Additional reporting by Beatrice Catena.
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Romanian President Klaus Iohannis, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz arrive for a news conference in Kyiv, Ukraine.
Ukraine’s long road to EU membership
The European Commission — the European Union’s executive branch — announced Friday that it would back Ukraine’s bid to become an EU member state. Such a hard-hitting decision by Brussels seemed like a longshot before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has sent shockwaves throughout the world. While this is just the first step in an accession process that could take a decade, it sends a powerful message of solidarity to Kyiv – and a strong warning to Vladimir Putin.
What happens now? The bid will go to a vote by the European Council on June 23-24 and will require the backing of all 27 member states to move forward, a process that can often be tumultuous. If the Council approves Ukraine’s candidacy, Kyiv will be required to introduce a host of significant economic, legal, and political reforms to meet the Commission’s criteria. This would be a massive feat for Ukraine, a country that has long been crippled by corruption and graft. Indeed, in normal times, this process can take 5-10 years, and the presence of an ongoing war will only draw out this process. What’s more, since 21 of the 27 EU states are also NATO members, membership to the EU will likely be perceived as a threat by Putin, and the Union’s expansion eastward as a sign of opportunity for countries like Georgia that are also vying to join the bloc. This makes the process even more complex. However, the Commission’s opinion suggested that one day — even far in the future — Ukraine’s membership to the EU could become a reality.
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