ACLED

🌍Where are the world’s most vulnerable conflict zones? What crises could evolve in 2025? 📅 Find out with the launch of the #ACLED Global Conflict Index & 2025 Watchlist on 12 December! ▪️ The Conflict Index ranks the top 50 countries and territories by conflict risk, assessing levels of deadliness, civilian danger, geographic diffusion, and armed group fragmentation. It highlights where conflict is most widespread and deadliest. ▪️ The Watchlist identifies 10 critical crisis areas likely to evolve in 2025, offering insights into the world’s most complex and dynamic conflict landscapes. Stay tuned and learn more about these essential pair of resources: https://lnkd.in/eM7V47cU 

Since the landmark 2016 peace agreement, Colombia’s conflict has fundamentally shifted. The demobilization of the FARC insurgency marked the end of a hierarchical movement aiming to overthrow the government. Today, a fragmented collection of armed and criminal groups dominates the landscape, prioritizing territorial control to access illicit economies rather than confronting state forces. This shift has fueled surging clashes between rivals and increased violence against civilians, with 2023 recording the highest levels of inter-group violence since 2018. #ACLED data shows a 40% rise in violence between armed groups during the first 27 months of President Petro’s administration. 🎥 Watch Elizabeth Dickinson, Colombia Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group, unpack these dynamics in our latest webinar. Catch the full conversation: https://lnkd.in/gP-8i4yW

Latent tensions among #Myanmar resistance groups Since the 2021 coup, clashes between resistance groups have been recorded in nine of Myanmar’s 14 states and regions. These include confrontations among established Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs), People’s Defense Forces (PDFs), and Local Defense Forces (LDFs), as well as within their alliances. Key regions of conflict: ▪️ Shan State: 70% of inter-group clashes, driven by competition among established EAOs. ▪️ Sagaing Region: 12%, fueled by resource and public support competition among PDFs and LDFs. ▪️ Chin State: 8%, marked by intense competition between EAO-led LDF alliances. These dynamics reveal both the challenges and opportunities for Myanmar’s resistance movement. Dive into our latest analysis to explore how inter-group tensions are shaping the broader struggle: https://lnkd.in/d7Zr8bHN

In October and November, Somali forces intensified operations against al-Shabaab, eliminating around 10 senior leaders and disrupting militant activity in key regions. Highlights: ▪️Successful strikes in Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle, and Lower Shabelle. ▪️Renewed leadership under Major General Odowaa Yusuf Rageh bolsters anti-al-Shabaab campaigns. Discover how Somalia’s counter-insurgency strategy is evolving: https://lnkd.in/dHRMm-Pk

🟢 New webinar video | Is ‘Total Peace’ still possible in #Colombia? Catch ACLED’s in-depth discussion on Colombia’s evolving armed conflict under President Gustavo Petro. Discover how the 'Total Peace' strategy has sought to enforce the 2016 peace accords, engage armed groups in negotiations, and implement key reforms. Learn about its milestones, such as the historic yearlong ceasefire with the National Liberation Army (ELN), and the challenges posed by armed group competition for territorial control. 🎥 Watch the full video and subscribe to our YouTube channel for future insights: https://lnkd.in/dZTY6TBB

"The timing of HTS’s assault suggests that the weakening of the regime’s allies, particularly in light of developments in Lebanon, created an opportunity that HTS has seized,” explains ACLED’s Middle-East analyst in our latest Syria analysis. Since 7 October 2023, Israel has escalated its operations in Syria, with #ACLED recording over 300 shelling and airstrikes by the IDF targeting regime forces, Hezbollah, and Iran’s IRGC. Explore the full analysis for more on these shifting dynamics: https://lnkd.in/eGk3ZVT4

Al-Shabaab escalates attacks on Mogadishu businesses after the Somali government mandated CCTV installations. Businesses are caught in a perilous situation—risking militant retaliation for compliance while navigating government directives. Key stats: ▪️ 10 al-Shabaab attacks on Mogadishu businesses linked to surveillance efforts. ▪️ Civilians remain under threat, with 23 political violence events in Mogadishu since October. Explore our latest #Somalia Situation Update for further insights: https://lnkd.in/dHRMm-Pk  

HTS offensive escalates in Syria In just four days (27-30 November), HTS-led forces captured over 200 towns and villages across Syria’s northwest, gaining control of territory in Hama, Idlib, Aleppo, and Latakia. #ACLED also recorded an escalation in Syrian and Russian responses, with over 90 aerial and artillery attacks during the same period. These events build on weeks of intensifying strikes by regime forces, culminating in a volatile front reopening in the region. As ACLED’s latest analysis reveals, this offensive and broader developments — including intensified IDF attacks since October — highlight the growing complexity of Syria’s conflict landscape. Learn more: https://lnkd.in/eGk3ZVT4 

⏳ Two hours to go: Is ‘Total Peace’ still possible? Join #ACLED for a timely webinar exploring Colombia’s evolving conflict under President Gustavo Petro’s Total Peace strategy. Hear expert insights on the policy’s impact on violence, armed groups, and civilians during his first 27 months in office. 📢 Panel of experts: ▪️ Tiziano Breda, ACLED ▪️ Laura Bonilla, Fundación PARES ▪️ Elizabeth Dickinson, International Crisis Group ▪️ Kyle Johnson, Fundación CORE Moderated by Sandra Pellegrini, ACLED 💬 Live Q&A with English-Spanish interpretation. 🔗 Register now: https://lnkd.in/dUr6P5k8