Raffaele Di Giacomo, PhD’s Post

After touching upon Europe's economic shift in last week's view from the desk, it turns out that the continent's flip also extends to politics with the European Parliamentary election. Learn more in this week's view from the desk: https://lnkd.in/eAqegSVH

US presidential election 2024: What can Germany and Europe expect? Dr. Tim Heinkelmann-Wild from the Geschwister Scholl Institute at LMU analyzes the impact of the upcoming US presidential election on the international order and transatlantic relations. “Under Donald Trump, the USA has broken with the international order like never before and withdrawn from numerous international organizations and treaties. Under Biden, there was great expectation that the Americans would return to the international order. But this only happened selectively,” says Heinkelmann-Wild. In the video, he talks about what Germany and Europe should prepare for after November 5. ➡️ The full written interview is available here: https://lnkd.in/dciTc4tt #USElection2024 #foreignpolicy #politicalscience #LMU

What consequences will the outcome of the #US election 🇺🇸 have on Europe 🇪🇺 and multilateral institutions 🌍 ? In my interview with Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, I made three claims: 1️⃣ Long-term trends make future US withdrawal from #multilateralism likely – regardless of a victory of #Trump or #Harris: - The increasing polarization over 🇺🇸 foreign policy - The rise of China 🇨🇳 and revisionist groups of states - The intrusiveness of today's int' institutions that even constrain the US 2️⃣ US withdrawal will be more pronounced and extreme under #Trump 2.0 than under #Harris: - Under Harris, the US might focus on selected institutions and require Europeans to take more responsibility within them. - Under Trump, even Western bulwarks including NATO, OECD - OCDE, The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund can come under attack #project2025 3️⃣ European governments 🇪🇺 must build-up and pool autonomous capacities from defense to finance to be able to carry larger burdens in multilateral institutions – either to accommodate #Harris or to fill the gap left by #Trump!

🇪🇺 More diverse than united? 🇪🇺 ⤵ The shift to the right predicted for the 2024 European elections has come true in many European countries – including Germany. Meanwhile, pro-European forces in Poland, among others, have emerged stronger from the election. At our latest roundtable, we analysed and discussed the election campaign strategies of the German parties and the effects of the election results on the European political power structure: ▶ How were complex current challenges negotiated in the German election campaign? ▶ To what extent can the results in Poland be attributed to other strategies or to geopolitical or power-political factors? ▶ And what is the state of the European political power structure just a few weeks after the big election? Daniel Schade (Leiden University) and our policy fellow Dr Maria Skóra  – both recognised observers of German and Polish European politics – provided exclusive first insights into their findings within our research project ‘More diverse than united?’, which we are conducting in cooperation with European Policy Centre. Here, researchers from Germany, Poland, France and Italy analyse the European election campaigns and results in their countries in a comparative approach since the beginning of the year and discuss the results from an EU perspective. Want to find out more about recent shifts in power dynamics, prior campaign topics from war to security, and major differences within national EU politics? 🇩🇪 🇵🇱 🇫🇷 🇮🇹 Read the country reports here: https://lnkd.in/enNvMG3V Special thanks to our partners European Policy Centre, especially Corina Stratulat and Eric Maurice, IAI - Istituto Affari Internazionali with Luca Barana, Terra Nova- think tank with Marc-Olivier Padis, Krytyka Polityczna and our policy fellow Sophie Pornschlegel. Funded by Open Society Foundations. #EuropeanParliament #Election #Project #EPEP

The European elections are approaching, and I want to take a moment to speak about something very personal to me. I grew up in East Germany, in the former GDR. I still remember a time when free elections and democratic freedoms were not a given. There was no way to express one's opinion freely or to effect political change through voting. The end of the GDR and the reunification of Germany opened the door to a life of freedom and democracy for me and many others. For almost 35 years, I have enjoyed these freedoms. But I must admit that, like many of us, I often forget how valuable and fragile these achievements are. We take them for granted, not considering that they are at risk from populist movements in many countries across our Europe. This is why I support the initiative "We Stand for Values" (https://lnkd.in/eadxZPeZ). This initiative stands for diversity, openness, and tolerance in a united Europe and is committed to defending and promoting the fundamental values that make up our democracy: freedom, equality, the rule of law, and human rights. It reminds us that democracy and freedom are not givens but must be protected and cherished every day. My personal history and experiences have taught me how important it is to preserve our democratic values. Therefore, I encourage everyone to participate in the European elections and cast a strong vote for democracy and freedom. Every vote counts! #WeStandForValues #EuropeanElections #Democracy #Freedom #GoVote

More than a “before and after”, these elections represent a new chapter in the progressive integration of the far right into European politics. On the night of June 9th, the polls for the much-feared 2024 European elections closed. These were the elections of a change of cycle, the breakthrough of the far right, or the end of the grand coalition. In the end, it wasn’t as dramatic as expected, and the worst predictions of a possible right-wing majority did not come true. It is true that the earthquake some predicted did not occur, but for some time now, the tectonic plates of the EU have been moving in the same direction. The far right improved its results for the fifth consecutive time, which should not leave anyone indifferent. The grand coalition will not break, and the European institutions will not collapse due to the far-right tremor. However, for some time now, the European foundations have been shaking due to a far-right tectonic movement that could eventually bring the house down. Full story by Jaime Bordel Gil available in 7 languages on our website, https://buff.ly/46pgjgF

📍 Join us on 15 May for a debate with Party of European Socialists (PES) Spitzenkandidat Nicolas Schmit as he tells us how he would translate citizens' insights from our "2024 Voices - Citizens Speak Up!" report into actionable policies! As EU citizens prepare to go to the polls next month, this event will explore the priorities the next EU mandate should prioritise and notably address issues of democratic engagement, governance and how to better involve citizens in decision-making processes. 👇 Check out the below post for more information. #Voices4Choices #CitizensSpeakUp #EUElections2024

The Resurgence of Far-Right Nationalism in Europe: A Call to Reflect and Respond Recent elections across #Europe mark a pivotal shift as far-right parties gain substantial ground, challenging the EU's foundational values of liberal democracy. With the #Freedom Party's historic win in #Austria and the AfD's strong showing in Germany, the landscape of European politics is transforming. These parties, often united under themes of nationalism and sovereignty, pose significant challenges to the EU's #political cohesion and policy agendas. As these nationalist forces ascend to power, advocating for stricter border controls and national sovereignty, it is crucial for policymakers and citizens alike to engage in critical discussions on maintaining the EU’s principles while addressing the concerns fueling this political shift. Let us consider strategies that respect national identities while preserving the union's collective goals and values. 🔗 Stay informed. Stay engaged https://lnkd.in/eqmT7s2D Follow us 👇 Web — https://lnkd.in/ePFtiF_y Twitter — https://lnkd.in/eCuQS-HK LinkedIn — https://shorturl.at/CCPgk Facebook — https://lnkd.in/eHZnFvJe #EuropeanUnion #Nationalism #FarRight #Politics #Democracy

France's coalition aversion jeopardizes stability of any new government. France’s Aversion to Coalitions Risks Early Collapse of New Government In a recent development that has captured global attention and topped Google search trends today, France faces significant political instability as the country’s leaders continue to resist forming coalitions. This aversion to alliances could lead to the premature collapse of any new government. For more detailed information, refer to this news article. Snap Election and Political Stalemate On July 9, 2024, France held a snap election that resulted in a deeply fragmented National Assembly. The election brought forth three roughly equal political blocs, each unwilling to compromise or form what […] https://lnkd.in/dDK9QVcv https://lnkd.in/dJWQ6rRi

While France's far-right is hailing the lead in the parliamentary election, it’s time for us to reflect on what catalyzes the shift in its political scene. I am excited to share that the research paper I co-wrote with other researchers from ITSS Verona on the rise of far-right in Europe, which was presented to members of the U.S. Department of State, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and USAID previously, is now publicly available. The rise of the far-right has been an increasingly relevant and timely issue, as demonstrated by the gradual election shift towards radicalism. To examine the threats of the far-right to democracy, our team has performed netnography on online channels of relevant parties or politicians, as well as practised semi-structured interviews to gather expert insights. As the Contributor to the section on France, I have examined the growing potential of far-right parties dominating the Legislative election and the risk that strategic ties between France and its Western allies could be weakened, a growing concern underscored by the recent first-round election results. More importantly, given France's significant economic and military power, any major political upheaval in France could impact the entire European continent and its transnational partners. Read our report 'The Rise of the Far-Right in Europe - Mapping Groups, Narratives, and Trends in Europe’s Far-Right Landscape' here: https://lnkd.in/eaDacwM4 ITSS Verona #france #itssverona