The Future of Agriculture and Food After the COVID-19 Pandemic

Agriculture could be significantly impacted by the economic and socioeconomic dynamics of COVID-19. After all, widespread food shortages, especially shortages in fresh foods, like fruits, vegetables, eggs, meats, and cheeses, are likely to inspire more people to go into the agriculture profession.

The big takeaway here is that for almost all Americans alive today, food has been generally taken for granted. But now we’ve seen a reawakening — a reemergence — of concerns around foodstuffs. That will have a real impact in what people might look at as important investable ideas. And it could impact what careers people choose as a result of this pandemic.

There may also be increased investor interest in indoor food production warehouses, indoor grow centers, and distributed agricultural facilities for plants as well as lab-grown meats. I expect we are likely to see increased funding for labs to grow meat as well as multistory hydroponic facilities to generate food like vegetables and fish

A Food Wake-up Call

Food is at the bottom of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. It’s something that most Americans have taken for granted for some time. It’s something most people assumed there would be no issues with — especially because the United States is a major exporter of food. Fortunately, the United States produces more food than it consumes. But supply chains have been negatively impacted, and the inability to get fresh food and certain foodstuffs has had a real impact.

Those disruptions could inspire people to do more at-home farming. In fact, I personally know people who are putting in gardens at their houses as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. I know others who are getting set up with chickens or other livestock in order to have some of the fresh food they want at the house.

And this isn’t a fringe phenomenon. In recent weeks, I have had numerous phone calls with CEOs and executives of both public and private companies, on which we have shared tips and tricks about where to order food online that could not be found at local markets, including cheeses, meats, fruits, vegetables, and fish.

Although there are always people in almost every country in the world who struggle with access to basic necessities, including food. But these are things that I never thought would be an issue for the population at large in the 21st century. It had not previously occurred to me that if I wanted eggs, I better get some chickens. It is scary to think that this may be the new paradigm for how some business professionals need to think about food.

Perhaps the most surprising thing about these dynamics is that this is no longer just a consideration for people trying to live off the grid. This is now something to consider for anyone who wants to be sure of their food supply.

Going forward, it seems very likely that we would see more interest in the agricultural space for investing, careers, and national security than we have seen in a long time.

I also think a major change for agriculture is going to include much more widespread use of food delivery from supermarkets. For most of the past century, it was really only some elderly people who had their food delivered. I remember my Great Aunt Bertha had food delivered to her in the 1980s. And I know it was common for older people long before that.

And man, did those older folks have the right idea!

In recent years, there have been a slew of apps developed to help people get groceries they need delivered. Based on the use of such apps during the COVID-19 pandemic, I think you’re going to see more widespread adoption of their use permanently, as a direct result of people having been forced to use these various food delivery apps.

As for jobs, there has been a massive decline in the part of the U.S. labor force dedicated to agriculture. In fact, agricultural jobs were close to a majority of the labor force in the mid-1800s. But now, the percent of the workforce in agriculture is close to less than 1 percent in the United States.

Looking forward, I expect that we are going to see more people go into farming in the next few years — and potentially throughout this decade.

That fear of not being able to get food and the panic of going to a market that doesn’t have food is going to weigh on people going forward. This is likely to be especially true for younger people who are planning out their careers.

Maybe they’re in middle school or high school or college, and they’re trying to think about what they want to do with their lives. And having these experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic of being unable to find the food they want is going to impact some of their major life decisions.

Because I was born in the 1970s, I recall images and stories of life in the former Soviet Union, where people were unable to get toilet paper and food.

The fact that this was America in 2020 is shocking to me. And these kinds of things are going to cast a long shadow over people’s careers and lives in a material way.

As people debate what are essential workers and what are nonessential workers, one thing is not up for debate: agriculture. Because it is the epitome of an essential industry.

Without food, we have nothing.

The Future After COVID

This is an excerpt from Jason Schenker's recent book The Future After COVID, which was released on 1 April 2020. It is currently a #1 New Release for Macroeconomics on Amazon.

This book can be ordered at www.FutureAfterCovid.com

Jason Schenker is one of the world's leading futurists. He is the Chairman of The Futurist Institute and the President of Prestige Economics. Jason is also an instructor for LinkedIn Learning.

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